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The Fall of Ukraine

Parts 5 to 8 By David Atwell

Fall of Ukraine Part Five

Although issues about Russian aggression had been raised in the United Nations numerous times before, the joint action of Armenia and Russia against Azerbaijan brought significantly more voices of criticism in the UN. This time not only where the usual complaints raised by Britain and the United States, but now Turkey (who happened to be a non-permanent Security Council member) tabled a resolution demanding both Armenia and Russia withdraw from  Azerbaijan. This resolution, it goes without saying, was immediately vetoed by Russia who was, in turn, supported by China via an abstained vote.


Whilst the Western nations thought that their foolish economic sanctions would hurt Russia, in truth they did little other than to push Russia and China further together. It is true that Russia needed hard foreign currency, in order to fuel Putin’s plans of greatness, but it was also true that China needed a reliable flow of resources to power its ever growing industrial base. Under the circumstances both Russia and China thus made the perfect couple.


Putin the Magnificent was well aware of this vital partnership and made sure that Russia did everything it could to satisfy the needs of China. China, meanwhile, had to ensure that the West was satisfied and thus gave the appearance that it was neutral in the current events taking place between Russia and the Western Nations. However China was far more interested in China’s place in the world and if it could play Russia off against the others, to ensure China became the world’s dominant country, then it would do it regardless of the needs of Russia.


Nonetheless the Russia/China partnership worked for Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping for the here and now. It also ensured that Russia’s eastern provinces were secured. Similarly the soft underbelly of Russia was also safe as Kazakhstan had declared loyalty to Putin in the aftermath of the occupation of Azerbaijan. Thus Putin only had to be concerned about what Europe may do should it finally decide upon military action.               

Fall of Ukraine Part Six

Russia and Turkey, historically speaking, have never been the best of friends. If anything they have been the best of enemies. Putin the Magnificent was well schooled in their shared history and therefore viewed Turkey’s actions in the UN with significant concern. Having a large and well equipped defense force, as well as being a NATO member, meant to say Turkey was a significant threat to Russia’s position in Azerbaijan, the Black Sea, as well as the Ukraine. Thus Turkey needed to be isolated and the threat removed.


Putin therefore furthered his hand of peace to the southern European Nations in order to completely isolate Turkey from the rest of NATO. Although Serbia was not a NATO country, it immediately responded to Russia’s invitation. Soon Bulgaria followed as did Albania, Bosnia, Macedonia, and Croatia. After the cheap gas started flowing, even economically troubled Greece saw no other alternative than sign the non-aggression treaty with Russia in order to improve its dire economic situation.
Even though the European Union complained, as did NATO, that Russia was deliberately trying to destroy the EU, Russia rightly pointed out that the cheap gas was legal as Russia could set the price to its customers at whatever level it saw fit. Furthermore Putin highlighted the fact that Russia was helping these economically challenged members of the EU where the EU had failed them. This struck a chord, with the masses, and soon the name Putin was being chanted as their saviour all the way from Athens to Budapest.


Far more importantly Putin had achieved his goal of isolating Turkey and soon started applying the pressure to force Turkey to his wont. Turkey, however, was convinced that, should push come to shove, that its NATO allies would back them up and consequentially refused to back down. In fact Turkey increased the tension by mobilising its armed forces and began to aggressively patrol the land border it shared with both Armenia and Russia. Both nations returned the favour and it was only a matter of time before a clash would take place between the nations involved.        
     
Fall of Ukraine Part Seven

It did not take too long before the first clash took place along the Turkey – Armenian border. Yet Putin the Magnificent, upon hearing of the first firefight, decided to wait until he was sure that events would turn out to his liking. And although the Armenians called for war, they too held back waiting for Putin to play his hand knowing only too well they alone could not take on Turkey.

Turkey’s reaction to the border clash was one of sheer emotion. Millions of Turks demonstrated in the streets demanding that the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan take action against Armenia.   Erdoğan, however, knew that would mean war with Russia. Although he was confident that Turkey would succeed, along ith NATO backing, he nonetheless decided upon a non-military action by closing the Bosphorus to all Russian shipping.


Needless to say closing the Bosphorus to Russian shipping was highly controversial as it seemed to be in breach of various international treaties. Putin consequentially took the opportunity presented by Turkey’s actions to the UN, where the Russian ambassador tabled a resolution in the Security Council demanding that Turkey obey its international treaty obligations and allow Russian shipping access to the Mediterranean Sea via the Bosphorus.


Although Russia’s attempts to have this resolution pass failed, Putin nonetheless continued to stress Turkey’s violation of international law as military aggression. Turkey’s neighbours refused to get involved, and given several of them were NATO members, it was hence guaranteed that NATO would not get involved. Yet Turkey refused to back down. Erdoğan correctly recognised that if he did so, then he would become Putin’s puppet and Turkey would have to do everything which Russia demanded.        

Fall of Ukraine Part Eight

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, regardless of his hard line approach to Putin’s demands, was nonetheless hoping for a peaceful settlement in respect to the stand-off between Turkey and Russia. Alas he was not to get his way as the Turkish Navy’s actions ensured military action would settle the issue.


A Russian freighter, which was stuck in the Mediterranean whilst enroute to the now Russian port of Sevastopol, was ordered personally by Putin to force the Bosphorus. Putin rightly calculated that the Turks would either be forced to back down, allowing the Russian ship to sail through the Bosphorus thus humiliating Erdoğan into subservience, or the Turks would sink it thus allowing Putin to take military action. Sadly for Turkey, their navy decided to sink the Russian freighter in the Dardanelles.   
Thus Russia retaliated with its military might. The Russian Black Sea fleet attacked the Turks, sinking their Black Sea fleet in the process, and quickly occupied the Bosphorus, whilst the Russian Air Force battled for supremacy over Turkish territory. Meanwhile the combined Russian-Armenian army bulldozed its way, over the Turkish army defending the border, and was soon driving towards the Turkish capital of Ankara. Similarly Russian Marines had landed at Istanbul, first capturing the naval base, and then fanned out to occupy the city and its surrounding environs.


Yet if this was not dire enough for Turkey, Greece decided to take advantage of the situation and right a perceived wrong by invading the northern part of Cyprus which had been occupied by Turkey since 1974. Although the fighting was severe, Greek armed forces eventually occupied all of northern Cyprus within two weeks.  Needless to say, especially given the actions by Greece, no help came for Turkey.  Erdoğan soon sued for peace. Putin would not accept any such surrender unless it was unconditional. By this stage, with the combined Russian-Armenian army at Ankara’s gates and about a half of Turkey now occupied,  Erdoğan had no other choice but to accept Putin’s conditions of surrender.


      

 

 

 

 

 

 

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To Be Continued in Parts Nine to Twelve

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