Hitler 5/25/1940 France
Part 2
Michael W Moore
AURHORS NOTE: In Part 1 we deviate from OTL during the battle of France on 5/25.
Hitler is still the same archfiend, but he had correctly gambled that there was no serious threat in the south of France, and had thrown every thing he had at the Allied pocket forming around Dunkirk.
There was no evacuation, no Miracle of Dunkirk.
In fact the Allied defeat, without a Dunkirk evacuation, was so complete it has seriously altered Hitler’s whole thought process.
Causing in the subsequent weeks an epiphany if you will.
Hitler’s Epiphany -
The Whermacht and Luffewaffa at his command are truly awesome in their capability and striking power, and he seems to be the only one to fully realize this. His own strategic genius, along with the German Army’s operational concepts of combined forces and massed armor, together with superb ‘top to bottom’ tactical know how and flexibility, have proven to be world-beaters.
WORLD BEATERS!
Up until a few weeks ago Hitler had basically been Euro centric in his thinking.
He now contemplated strutting on a much larger stage.
With this incredibly efficient tool completely at his disposal it has caused him to think, in contemporary terms, much more outside the box. He rather likes the idea of being the grand strategist delegating the details to others.
Also while he is impressed with their competence, he’s not about to let them know it, and intends to keep his Generals firmly under his thumb….
…. but lightly under that thumb. For he realizes that for him to take full advantage of their competence, that once he gives them direction, his interests would be best served with less meddling in the planning and operational conduct of the campaigns.
He makes a vow to himself to point them, with proper Olympian detachment, in the proper direction and then get out of the way. (as much as it’s possible for a megalomaniac nut job and control freak to do so)
Everything else is pretty much the same in this time line.
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7/14/1940
‘Operation Stepping Stone’, the Axis attack on Malta was conducted with all objectives met in less than 24 hrs.
The combination of German airborne assault troops and a surprisingly effective Italian seaborn attack, proved too much for the island’s under strength and totally surprised defense.
All airfield and harbor facilities were captured with little damage.
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Immediately ‘Operation Suez’ is put in motion with the objective of taking the Suez Canal into Axis hands by the end of September.
The combined Axis forces are nominally under the command of Italian Marshall Graziani but in reality all front line control resides with the German General Irwin Rommel.
At General Rommel’s disposal are 3 Italian corps comprised of a dozen divisions. While there are a few good divisions, the bulk are poorly trained and equipped.
The Italian mechanized forces contain mostly obsolete or obsolescent armor.
More importantly he has 4 well-equipped German divisions- 2 Panzer and 2 Motorized Infantry. The Panzer Divisions contain many of the newer Mk III and Mk IV tanks. This is Hitler’s ‘German tip of steel on the Italian noodle’.
In all he has about 450 German tanks and about 300 inferior Italian ones.
He also has enough air support to ensure complete air superiority on the battlefield.
Facing him are 27,000 British troops and a little over 200 tanks. The British General O’Connor has had a third of his forces siphoned off in the last 60 days, sent back to Britain for home island defense,
‘Operation Suez’ commenced on September 3rd, and Axis forces crossed into Egypt.
The British fought bravely, they new the stakes were high, but they were simply over matched.
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The Germans were simply too mobile and well equipped, while being much more confident and experienced than their British counterparts.
The Luffewaffa enjoyed a 3 to 1 advantage in numbers of aircraft and had much more experienced pilots. Air superiority immediately proved decisive, the numerous Stukas ranged freely taking out many British vehicles.
The British commander O’Connor was able and keen proponent of mobile armored forces. A dashing leader like Rommel he liked to lead from the front, which soon proved his undoing.
During the second week of the campaign he was suckered into a counter attack near El Alamein and ran into a line of 88mm flak guns pressed into an anti tank role. In minutes 18 British tanks were flaming wrecks and O’Connor himself taken prisoner.
By the 24th of September Rommel has bridgeheads over the Canal and the British are in full retreat to Southern Egypt and across the Sinai.
The German army celebrated Oktoberfest in Egypt that year. Hitler had tons of bratwurst, beer, and sauerkraut flown to the front.
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The loss of Malta, along with the Canal, rocked the British government. Churchill vowed that Britain would fight on but his voice was becoming lonelier.
The success of ‘Operation Suez’, immediately kicked off ‘Operation Zagros’ and “Operation Torch’, as conceived by General Manstein and outlined by Adolf Hitler in a General Staff meeting in Berlin the first week of July.
Objectives to be achieved by Christmas 1940, by order of the Furer.
‘OPERATION ZAGROS’
Objective 1- Elimination of all British armed forces in the Middle East as far
as the Zagros Mountains in Iran, area to include entirety of Arabian Peninsula.
Objective 2- Seizure of all oil wells and refineries in Persian Gulf Region.
Objective 3- Elimination of all British armed forces in Northern and Southern
Egypt, and the Sudan.
Objective 4- Establishment of Italian/German line on border of British Kenya.
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‘OPERATION TORCH’
Objective 1- The establishment of 10 coastal air stations in French North
and French Eastern Africa stretching from Tunisia to Dakar.
(Authors note: The Vichy French had agreed to this in a secrete
amendment to the armistice agreement)
Objective 2- The establishment of a permanent naval air station in the port
of Dakar. This facility should be of sufficient size and strength to allow
German and Italian navel forces to conduct offensive operations
throughout the mid and south Atlantic regions.
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Rommel’s drive across Egypt hugged the coast until taking the port of Alexandria, and then by passed Cairo to leap for the canal.
At the Nile near Ismialia he divided his forces to pursue the British retreat in two directions.
Army Group A- was comprised of 2 German Panzer and 1 Motorized Infantry Divisions, + the best 2 Italian divisions. They refitted for two days at the Canal taking the largest share of fresh supply then charged across the Sinai after the bulk of the retreating British.
Army Group B- had 1 German Motorized Infantry Division, and 2 Italian Divisions. After a quick detour to Port Said, Army Group B drove first to Cairo then south through the Nile river valley and south along the Red Sea coast.
Cairo was in chaos with rioting and looting in the streets.
Both German Army Groups and the retreating British are stalled by hoards of refugee traffic. To add to the British woes they are constantly strafed by German aircraft.
The Egyptian Army revolts and declares themselves Axis allies; Abdul Nasser and Anwar Sadat are among the leaders.
As soon as the Canal was seriously threatened the British pushed all RN ships through to the Red Sea leaving the Axis in complete control of the Eastern Mediterranean and stranding forces on Crete and Cyprus.
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With total German air supremacy over the Sinai none of the Red Sea ports can be used for evacuation. The main British force retreating across the Sinai has no option but to make for the British garrison in Palestine.
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But there was more to Manstien’s ‘Operation Zagros’.
Vichy France had signed over the rights to Syria and Lebanon to Germany as a secrete amendment to the armistice agreement.
The French Garrison in Tripoli was informed of this development October 3rd by a large portion of the Italian Navy, which was standing offshore at the time. This phase of the operation had been waiting until the RN was forced from the area.
The Italian Admiral… informed the French Commander that their ‘relief’ had arrived and offered them a ride home on his return voyage.
With a Gallic shrug the French Commander, along with the majority of his troops, departed for home five days later.
Their ‘relief’ consisted of 2 German Divisions-1 Panzer and 1 Motorized Infantry, along with 2 Italian Infantry Divisions.
One Italian Division garrisoned Tripoli.
The other 3 divisions designated Army Group C, drove south two days later and reached Sidon on Oct. 5th.
By the same date the main force of Army Group B had driven 200 km south down the Nile. Other elements advancing from Suez had reached Jamsa on the Red Sea coast. Starved for supply Army Group B will stop there while Rommel chases the bulk of the fleeing British Army.
Army Group A with Rommel in command has driven the retreating British forces out of the Sinai. He now has severe supply problems, as his line of supply stretches all the way back to Port Said and Alexandria, he has been stalled at Gaza for two days.
The remnants of the desperate British Egyptian Army having just reached Palestine, and are in even worse shape. Very little supplies can be flown in, and their land supply route stretches all the way back to Basra through country without real roads.
Constantly harassed from the air they will retreat back through Iraq as fast as they can, if they can.
Iraq is once more in open revolt.
If Egypt was chaotic, Palestine is a mad house.
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Jews that are not trying to flee are fighting Arabs.
Arabs have risen in revolt and are fighting Jews, Brits, and each other.
The entire theater of operations is under Rommel’s command.
Oct. 6th he orders Army Group C to strike inland directly to Amman.
By Oct. 6th he is partially re-supplied. He swings wide himself for Amman with one Panzer and one Motorized Division.
The Amman pocket is closed Oct.8th, and 7,000 more British troops go into the bag.
With the Germans again short on supply, the remnants of the British Army limp for Basra. Most are evacuated.
Churchill remains in power.
The British public lays the blame for their terrible losses at the feet of the former Government. They remember Churchill’s voice crying out against appeasement and accommodation with Hitler.
However they are dismayed and demoralized by failure.
The British public is weary of evacuations and lost battles.
Britain sues for peace but H is not ready to let off hook yet.
Rommel rolls into Abadan Oct.15th, at least what’s left of it, all oil refinery and storage facilities are wrecked.
With all areas of oil production firmly in German hands, Britain gives up any pretense of holding on to anything else in the Persian Gulf.
They have nothing to hold it with.
They evacuate the entire gulf area.
Long before Christmas Rommel can report to the Furer, all objectives of ‘Operation Zagros’ have been met. He returns home to much acclaim and to a Field Marshall’s baton.
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Hitler has given Egypt west of the Suez Canal and the Sudan to Mussolini.
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Operation of the Canal is to be in the Italian’s hands, and they began immediately to clear it. Defenses of Canal are to be joint.
As further compensation Mussolini was also awarded Syria and Lebanon.
In early December Crete and Cyprus are taken. Crete goes to Italy and Hitler keeps Cyprus along with Malta.
Hitler keeps every thing else East of the Canal to the Zagros Mountains and the Straits of Hormuz, along with the Arabian Peninsula and French Djibouti in Africa.
The Balkans, with the British pushed out of the Eastern Mediterranean, fall into line much easier for the Axis than in OTL.
In late fall ’40, joint German-Italian forces quickly crush any opposition, then occupy and divvy up the area.
Hitler throws a few scraps of Yugoslavia to Hungary and Romania.
Bulgaria gets Macedonia and a large part of Eastern Greece.
Italy assumes control of Serbia, Montenegro, and Greece.
Germany forms protectorates in new Axis allies Slovenia and Croatia.
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‘Operation Torch’ kicks off on 9/28 and is barley noticed, as it was conducted quietly and simultaneously with the much bigger ‘Operation Zagros’.
The Vichy French are more inclined to cooperate with Hitler in this time line. The Vichy government has agreed to allow the Germans to operate out of 10 French airfields and 2 ports on the north and east coast of their African possessions.
Much more than in OTL Hitler is attuned to using surrogates to achieve his larger ambitions, and hopes for much cooperation from Vichy. German and Vichy propaganda have played up the ‘British stab in the back’ big time. The ‘stab’ being the British attacks on the French Navy after the fall of France, to keep French ships from falling into German hands.
In return the Germans have agreed to loosen various restrictions imposed on the French.
The Germans have agreed to station a minimal amount of troops at each airfield for base security purposes only. French forces will provide additional security.
The politically small German forces play leapfrog along the Mediterranean coast to each airfield and quickly fly in planes and personal.
Tunis, Algiers, and Oran present no problem and bases are set up smoothly.
After some tense negotiation at Tangier the Germans are allowed to set up house there 10/05.
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Then down the Atlantic coast Casablanca is next, and here the Germans also will have limited use of the port facilities.
Then Agadir, El Aaiun, and Dakhia. Franco has also ‘graciously’ given permission for the Germans to use Spanish territory.
Nouakchott is next.
Then the big prize Dakar, from which the German planes and subs can begin to dominate the mid and southern Atlantic sea lanes.
Negotiations had been going on with the French Admirals at Dakar since August.
They have been highly resistant to the idea of sharing their facilities with their recent enemies.
But many in the French navy hate the British, having suffered more at their hands than they did from the Germans.
Finally after all their requirements had been agreed to, and shortly after they see the Suez Canal fall, the Admirals gave their approval.
On 10/16 the first German and Italians arrive.
‘Operation Torch’ is an unqualified success. Without firing a shot.
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OK, lets compare Xmas 1940 this time line, with OTL.
First, lets look at Britain’s strategic position.
The greatly enhanced German victory in France has decidedly tilted the balance in Germany’s favor vs. Britain and her allies.
With no Dunkirk evacuation Britain has lost virtually the whole of the BEF.
The heart of her Army is gone, as most of her experienced non-coms and officers are now in German POW camps.
At the least, this drastically slows and affects the quality of the Army’s future training. This will seriously affect any ability to project significant force in the near future, possibly for years, as these men’s experience level will be impossible to replace.
The threat of invasion from the continent will, because of the loss of these men, be perceived as all the greater. In OTL the evacuated BEF just had to be re-supplied and re-equipped to compromise a very effective fighting force.
In this time line the British will be paralyzed by the threat of invasion. Not only can they not send any troops or elements of the Royal Navy to reinforce other places, probably in the short term, they strip away defenders from anywhere they can to bring them home. This weakens Commonwealth defenses everywhere.
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The battle of Britain did take place though on a smaller scale, as this was essentially a diversion by the Germans. The resulting loss of aircraft by both sides was about half of what they experienced OTL, with the RAF making out slightly better than the Lufewaffa. The Brits therefore have a few hundred extra planes they wouldn’t have had, but so do the Germans.
The loss of Malta, the Suez Canal, and the Middle East has been a military catastrophe for the British eclipsed only by Dunkirk.
This has resulted in a huge loss of prestige for Britain.
Britain has had to cede control of everything east of Malta to the straits of Hormuz. This nation of seafarers has lost control of the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and the Easter Mediterranean in a matter of months.
The biggest prize of course is the oil reserves of Iraq and Iran.
This is a huge departure from OTL.
Instead of being chronically short of fuel, Hitler’s war machine has the eventual potential to move much farther and faster now. It’s much more dangerous.
Repairs to the fields and refinery facilities began immediately. Pipelines are repaired and replaced with a top priority. New pipelines will be laid ASAP from Iraq and Iran to the Mediterranean. Hitler’s top oil specialists expect to have 70% of the Middle East’s former production on line and reaching the Reich within two years.
Construction has begun on new refinery and storage facilities on the coast of Slovenia. Pipelines from there will extend into Austria and Northern Italy.
As soon as plans for ‘Operation Zagros’ were finalized, Hitler has ordered the construction of 300 small coastal freighters and oilers to begin immediately, many to be built in Italian shipyards under contract.
The first of these vessels were projected to be launched in the fall of ‘41.
Just as important as the German boon in oil, is the huge loss to the British in exchange. These oil fields were Britain’s primary source of oil. Replacing their production will be problematic to say the least. This will also limit her ability for offensive action for some time.
Hitler now threatens Britain on three fronts.
1) The British Isles
2) British Kenya
3) India
Churchill cannot possibly defend all three, hard choices will have to be made.
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With the Vichy French allowing the Germans the use of their African ports and airfields, it makes much easier for German subs to roam the Atlantic and sink British shipping.
With Axis forces moving in their direction, Britain’s Commonwealth partners are beginning to scream for help. With their own territory looking vulnerable in the future, many are rethinking their commitments to Britain.
Long run, one of the biggest problems Churchill has is that Britain is going broke.
The First World War seriously weakened her financial structure; in no way can she pay for what she has to do now.
Roosevelt will help as much as he can, but Britain’s position being that much weaker won’t help him. Without U.S. aid in the near future, how long can Britain stay in the war?
Second, Germany’s strategic position.
Hitler’s position in almost every way is stronger than OTL.
His personal stature is greatly augmented.
Germany has potentially much more oil, although that will take time to come on line.
Potentially a much better financial position is available because of foreign earnings from the oil fields.
Hitler’s bigger plans have also caused him to stimulate production much sooner than in OTL.
Because of having a bigger appetite this time line, Hitler sees more uses for, and is making better use of his Axis Allies. Italian, Hungarian, Romanian forces etc. are used whenever possible as occupation forces and second line troops. His allies are much better attuned to this with Germany’s greater success. They are more cowed, along with being motivated by wanting a piece of Hitler’s pie.
Italy has been particularly helpful in this regard.
Without their (OTL) 1940 North African fiascos, the Italian morale is much greater and Italian public opinion of Mussolini much higher.
By fighting successfully as partners, albeit very junior partners, with the
Whermacht they have gained confidence and operational skill.
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Hitler wanting to improve the operational capability of the Italians for his own purposes has 200 German advisors working with the Italian forces.
In order to beef up the Italian armored divisions Hitler has licensed to the Italians production of the Mk IV Panzer. Production is scheduled to begin in fall 1941.
Mussolini though originally quite miffed at Goering’s arm-twisting, had reluctantly agreed to joint operations with Germany in Africa and the Middle East.
The results have been nothing short of stupendous.
He has massively increased the size of his Empire with very little cost to himself. While Germany’s casualties were relatively light, his own were almost non-existent. He’s wildly enthusiastic about future complicity with Germany.
He gets all the credit at home while Hitler does all the heavy lifting!
Also in the future Middle East oil will drastically help Italy’s financial, industrial, and military situations as it comes on line.
In fact Mussolini is one happy camper these days.
From Hitler’s point of view by giving Mussolini large, though less important, pieces of the pie he has made him a very willing accomplice, eager for future adventures.
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Lets see what’s going on with some of the other players.
The Jews- Tragically the war in Africa and the Middle East has had disastrous consequences for Jews in the area that couldn’t escape. Arabs or Germans kill many and the rest are shipped back to Europe to be used as slave labor in the camps.
The dream that was Israel is dead.
Vichy France is inclined to be much more cooperative this time line due to Germany’s enhanced position.
Spain is being pressured by Hitler to come into the war on his side, plus he wants Franco’s help in eliminating Gibraltar.
Unknown to Vichy France he’s offering up French Morocco as bait.
Franco is still sitting on the fence, but in this time line he is listening to Hitler much more favorably, weighing his options he waits.
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Turkey likewise
is trying
to stay neutral but has Axis Bulgaria on its western flank, and now has German
Iraq on its southern border.
Russia scares the heck out of the Turks, but the carrots offered are
enticing. Control of parts of northern Syria and Iraq, several of the Greek
controlled islands off it’s coast, and part of Cyprus.
Japan seeing how much weaker Britain’s position is in this time line, readied it
self to move south immediately after the fall of France.
When the Axis forces took the Suez Canal, they figured the time was right and they occupied French Indochina and the Dutch East Indies. They did so with the agreement of the French Vichy and puppet Dutch governments.
Britain of course was way too occupied to do anything but make a feeble
protest.
America was decidedly unhappy but unwilling to go to war to protect
European colonial interests. They did boycott oil and other raw materials to
Japan, although this had less impact than it did in OTL as they already had the oil
fields of the Dutch East Indies in their possession.
The Japanese began to exploit their new resources immediately and
eagerly await future developments.
The Philippines are looking pretty surrounded now on the map. In Nov.
the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Britain sign the Pacific Defense
Pact (PDP). They agree to come to each other’s aid in the event of war in the
Pacific. This strictly a Defensive Pact for the Pacific area, Roosevelt had finally
found a line in the sand that Congress would draw.
Joint ‘maneuvers’ begin immediately in the Southwestern Pacific and East Indian Oceans.
Japan was greatly angered by the PDP, as it was obviously directed at
them.
In Russia Stalin is very nervous. He was appalled at the quick fall of France and
the destruction of the BEF.
To make matters much worse, Hitler’s victories in North Africa and the
Middle East have greatly strengthened him and brought the Germans very close
to the Soviet southern border. A border Stalin will now have to commit
forces to defend.
Worse still the oil fields of Baku are now within air range of German bombers operating from northern Iraq.
Stalin has made up his mind, he must attack Hitler, for he is certain that his turn will come soon. After all it’s what he would do in Hitler’s place.
This must be done ASAP in an effort to take pressure off Britain and keep it in the war. He has opened secrete communication with Churchill.
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Stalin’s Generals tell him that mid summer next year is as soon as they can be ready.
British Commonwealth – A great deal of anguish and nervousness as you can
Imagine.
Canada is in it to the end and is insulated by the Atlantic Ocean and the
USA..
South Africa, India, Australia, and New Zealand are feeling much more
exposed.
With their own territory increasingly looking vulnerable to the Axis
forces, they are weighing their commitments to Britain vs. their own security.
They are gearing up their own smaller munitions production and buying
every thing they can from the USA (which is greatly aiding the USA economy).
All are cozying up to the USA as much as possible.
USA- Similar to OTL, although as the Japanese Asian land grab has left the
Philippines looking pretty well surrounded. Arms production and training are
slightly ahead of OTL at this point, but many in USA getting more concerned it
will soon accelerate.
END PART 2