Seeing
how the Depression is spreading from country to country independent of what
actions they take (except for the USSR, that is more or less self-sufficient in
anything) Mussolini decides to make Italy self-sufficient to as high degree as possible.
As industry takes years to develop (and Italy lacks the money to do so anyway),
a program to find and exploit as yet undiscovered mineral resources in 1) Italy
and its possession, but also 2) Anywhere else they are to be had, begins.
At the
same time, Italy is also to gain additional territories that might aid her
quest for self-sufficiency.
The National Hydrocarbons Board (Ente Nazionale Idrocarburi = ENI) is
established, including all phases of the
oil cycle through four operating branches : Agip Mineraria (exploration), Agip
(distribution), Snam (transport) and Anic (refining). Though Agip Mineraria is
supposed to mainly concentrate on finding oil in northern Italy, in the Po
basin, it also branches out, not only into the colonies, but also foreign
countries, mainly in the middle east. The expertise of foreign oil companies is
also enlisted, and they are promised very beneficial conditions to work under.
(ENI was in OTL only organized in 1953, after significant oil and gas fields had
been discovered in Italy, and in the prewar years, as far as was possible, no
foreign oil companies were allowed in).
ENI
managed to gain a concession for the whole of the al-Hasa province of Saudi
Arabia. The agreement sees a lump sum in gold go to the Saudi king each year
until oil is struck, and then also a determined sum per ton of oil produced as
no known oil reserves are in the area, the agreement is rather favorable for
the Italians. (this in OTL went to Standard Oil Company of California, but only
after oil was discovered in nearby Bahrein in May 1932).
1932 – June
After
years of mutual hostility, a series of skirmishes in the Chacho region,
disputed by Bolivia and Paraguay, begin.
1932 - July
War
finally breaks out between Paraguay and Bolivia. It is called the Gran Chaco
War.
1932 – September
The
Paraguayans successfully complete the first campaign of the Chaco War, taking
Boqueron. After this, the war turns pretty static in the southern part of the
Chaco (where all the fighting is going on) for the next 5 months, with
reoccurring Bolivian counter-attacks trying to break the Paraguayans.
1932 – December
Paraguayan
forces defeat a Bolivian offensive, the first of the so-called Nanawa I
campagin.
1933 – January
Italy and
Yemen sign a treaty of mutual cooperation on military and economic matters. The
Italians are contracted to organize and train three battalions of troops along
modern lines. They are generously equipped with machine guns and
transportation. At the same time, Italy is contracted to provide Yemen with an
air force of some 30 planes (this is a re-vitalization of Italo-Yemeni
cooperation during the 1920s).
1933 – February
Another
Bolivian offensive in the Nanawa I campaign is defeated by Paraguayan troops in
the Chaco War.
1933 – March
Seeing an
opportunity, Italy sends observers to the Chacho region, to observe the war
between Paraguay and Bolivia, and see whether there is anything to be learnt.
1933 – June
Italy
sends a military mission to Paraguay, and after a short time request the three
things the Paraguayans need most: 50 planes to drive the Bolivians from the sky
(they are secretly smuggled through the League of Nations embargo), money to
keep the nation going, but most of all trucks and gasoline, to keep the
Paraguayan offensive going.
1933 – July
The
Nanawa II campaign ends in total failure for the Bolivians in the Chaco War, as
their continuous frontal attacks are beaten back with heavy losses.
1933 – December
After
noticing some gaps in the Bolivian lines, Paraguayan troops manage to surround
two divisions of the Bolivian army and defeat them. This signifies the
beginning of the Paraguayan advance into Bolivia.
1934 – February
A border
skirmish erupts into an actual war Yemen and Saudi Arabia over the Najran
oasis. Aided by the Italian air force and Italian-trained troops, the Saudis
are defeated, and the oasis taken (the war happened in reality, save for the
occupation of the Najran oasis. That one was taken by Saudi Arabia, the last gain
in an expansion that had started in 1903)
Under the
terms of the Yemenite-Italian treaty, Italy declares war on Saudi Arabia.
1934 – March
Yemenite
troops and their Italian auxiliaries invade the Asir region, to which Yemen
lays claim.
Italian
marines land at Dhahran in the eastern al Hasa province of Saudi Arabia. The
drilling wells there are quickly secured.
1934 – April
Another
Saudi army is defeated, partially through strafing attacks and bombings by the
Italian air force. The rest of Asir is occupied by the Yemeni troops.
1934 – May
With the
Yemenites nearing Mecca – save for the Italian oil concession, the only source
of foreign currency - the Saudis give in. By the end of the month, a peace
treaty is signed, giving the Asir region to Yemen (roughly doubling its size)
and the al Hasa region to Italy. Italy is to pay to the Saudi king a yearly sum
equivalent to the revenues lost with the two provinces.
In the
Chaco War, the Bolivians manage to surround most of one Paraguayan division. Though
most of its men fight their way out, this begins a time of stiffening Bolivian
resistance. So far, the Paraguayan advance has taken them some 300 kilometers
NW, bagging them most of the Chaco.
1934 – July
Italy and
Qatar sign a treaty outlining their common border. A like treaty is signed with
the United Arab Emirates. British worry about Italian designs on her
protectorates subsides somewhat.
In the
Chaco War, the Paraguayan advance is finally stopped at Picuiba.
1934 – September
Nuclear
Physicist Enrico Fermi with a determined team of some 25 talented students
discovers fission and splits the atom while systematically bombarding element
after element with the newly discovered neutrons. After Mussolini is told about
it, a media blackout is enacted for 6 months, while the consequences are
explored, and additional research is done. When Fermi discovers, that slowing
neutrons by passing them through a light-element "moderator" such as
paraffin increases their effectiveness, allowing the release of nuclear energy
in a reactor with the use of very little fuel, vast resources are made
available to Fermi and his team. (In OTL, Fermis team missed the first
discovery by the thickness of the sheet of foil in which they wrapped their
uranium sample; the foil blocked the fission fragments that their instruments
would otherwise have recorded. I have, by the way, been unable to find the date
in 1934 this happened, so I have, out of nowhere, chosen September)
1934 – November
Paraguayan
troops again gain the initiative when they surround the Bolivian Reserve Corps
at El Carmen. The Paraguayan advance resumes, and is by now heavily helped in
sustaining it by the Italian deliveries of trucks and airplanes.
Italian troops provoke a border incident over Valval, on the Ethiopian
side of the Ethiopian-Somaliland border. Over the next few months, the incident
is kept hot, in preparation for a full-scale Italian invasion of Ethiopia. The
League of Nations puts an arms embargo on both countries, but given that
Ethiopia is by far the weakest, it only serves to help Italy keep her weak.
As Paraguayan troops seize the only source of water in the region, the
Bolivian Cavaly Corps is forced to retreat, losing one third of its number to
thirst in the process.
1935 – January
The Ethiopian emperor Haile Selassie appeals to League of Nations for
intervention.
Mussolini and Pierre Laval, the French Prime minister make an
agreement, by which Italian rights in the Addis Abeba – Djibouti railroad (the
only major link for Ethiopia to the outside world) are increased, thereby
increasing the Italian interests in Ethiopia. It is in violation of the 1906
Anglo-French agreement excluding Italy from Ethiopia
The Paraguayan troops advance into Bolivia proper.
1935 - February
Italy sends large forces to Eritrea and Somaliland in anticipation of
the coming invasion of Ethiopia. The Stresa Front of European powers only
protests mildly. The US doesnt even comment.
1935 – March
News of some of Enrico Fermis discoveries last year are published. His
discovery of Fission is kept secret, though. At the same time, work on plans
for a test-reactor begin.
1935 – April
Paraguayan troops cross the Rio Parapiti. They are able to throw back
savage Bolivian counter-attacks, but instead of going west (they are now in the
Andean foothills) instead fortify in that direction, and head north, towards
the province of Santa Cruz, the major agricultural province of Bolivia. Though
Bolivian generals advocate to create a third field army (the first two having
been crushed by the Paraguayans), the general feeling is that the battle is
lost (the Paraguayans were actually thrown back across the Rio Parapiti, and
thus never continued to Santa Cruz, though that was the aim of some).
The Italian advisors have in the course of the war learned valuable
lessons, most of all the value of coordination between ground and air forces,
supply and need for mobility.
1935 – May
Italy forms its first two motorized divisions, to supplement the 3
celere divisions formed in 1930.
Paraguayan forces, in a surprise offensive, break the Bolivian
frontline, and manage to occupy the Bolivian oil fields, one of the major
generators of state revenue. With this, the Bolivian morale is broken. Though
new people have come to since the old Bolivian president was arrested and
deposed in 1934, they have too little to work with to turn the tide. Bolivia
sues for peace.
1935 - June
Anthony Eden, British minister for League Affairs tries to negotiate
with Mussolini but fails
Paraguay and Bolivia sign a peace treaty. Paraguay is granted not only
the entire Chaco, but also the province of Santa Cruz. This effectively adds
170% to Paraguays area and 40% to her population. In return, the Paraguayan
troops evacuate the Bolivian oil fields.
1935 – August
Paraguay and Italy sign a treaty on friendship and economic
cooperation.
1935 - October
Italy invades Ethiopia - army led by Badoglio. Officially, Italian
goals are not just confined to territorial claims. Italy also wishes to bring
civilization to Ethiopia, abolish slavery among others.
The League of Nations brands Italy the aggressor. An ad hoc committee
decides on taking the five following modest proposals:
1)
that the arms embargo against Ethiopia be lifted and that one be placed
upon Italy,
2)
that all loans of credit to Italy be prohibited,
3)
that an embargo be placed on all goods from Italy,
4)
that embargoes should be placed upon certain goods going to Italy, and
5)
that economic support would be given to states adversely affected by
the sanctions.
However, these measures fail to be effective in stopping Italy for
several key reasons. First of all, several member states, including Austria,
Hungary, and Albania, refuse to comply with the League ordinances. Secondly,
three of Italy’s main trading partners, the United States, Germany, and
Switzerland, undermine the League efforts by continuing trade with Italy. Plus,
the League announces that the sanctions will be placed in effect beginning on
November 18, 1935, which gives the Italians plenty of foreknowledge and a
considerable amount of time to amass goods which are to be sanctioned later.
1935 - November
The League of Nations sanctions go into effect.
Funds for nuclear research are cut to concentrate all resources on the war
in Ethiopia.
1935 - December
A secret agreement has been hammered out by Pierre Laval, the French
prime minister, and Samuel Hoare, the British foreign secretary, that will
essentially give large tracts of Ethiopia to Italy, and more or less put the
rest of the country under an Italian protectorate. It is, however, revealed to
the press, and the public outcry makes any compromise over Ethiopia impossible.
There is now only the option for Ethiopian victory or defeat. And a victory
looks like a no-go.
Great Britain concentrates naval forces at Alexandria. They are not
used actively though, and Italy still has access to its forces in Eastern
Africa through the Suez Canal.
1936 – January
With the Italian drive in the north stalled, Marshal Rodolfo Graziani
decides to give the Ethiopians other things to worry about, and invades
Ethiopia from the south. When an Ethiopian army moves against him, it
outflanked, outrun and outmaneuvered by the mobile Italian columns, and is
practically massacred. By the end of the month, the Italians are at Neghelli in
southern Ethiopia.
Trying to get back funding for his research that was just starting to
take off, Enrico Fermi mentions the possibility of using fission for a bomb of
unprecedented magnitude. Funds are immediately made available again, and are in
fact doubled over.
1936 – February
The Italians reopen hostilities in the northern Ethiopian theatre. In
succession, three Ethiopian armies are defeated, though it at times is a very
close thing, the Italians several times being caught off guard by Ethiopian
surprise attacks. In the end, Italian air-power and poison gas prove to turn
the odds.
The last attempt at consoling Italy through compromise failed, the
League of Nations, with France and Great Britain as the leaders, push through
oil and coal sanctions against Italy. Member states are required to not sell
such commodities to Italy, but no sanctions against nations that break the
embargo are determined. While League states mostly (again, Hungary, Albania, Austria
and a few others are the exception) join the sanctions, Italy is till able to
survive thanks to supplies of coal from Germany and oil from the US, both
countries not members of the League (in our timeline, the League could not
agree on sanctions, primarily because it was realized that Germany and the US
would not join. Especially the US under FDR refused the idea, as it controlled
50% world oil trade).
While the sanctions are in essence ineffectual, Italy still has a rude
awakening to its dependency on foreign sources of resources. Only two years
prior, war could have ensued with Germany over Austria, and the US as a
supplier is threatened by the fact that the Royal Navy is in between it and
Italy. Consequently, the strive to make Italy more independent of foreign
deliveries is intensified. Investments especially go to the expansion of coal
production in Sardinia and the search for oil in Libya, where it is suspected
to be. Investments in the low-grade Albanian oil fields and in search for
chromium and other resources in Albania is also increased dramatically. Foreign
oil companies are enlisted to hunt for oil in joint ventures with AGIP, the
Italian oil firm. (coal was known to exist in Sardinia, and oil strongly
suspected in Libya. Nothing of this art happened until 1939. I have given Italy
a head start of 3 years. In the case of Libya, nothing of the sort described
above ever happened. Though smallscale drilling took place during the 30s,
nothing of real size developed until the mid-50s).
Italy begins to build or acquire a small fleet of oil tankers for the
ENI (in reality Italy was pretty short of tankers during WWII).
A military coup in Paraguay brings the more fascist-inclined elements
of the Partido Colorado to power. By initially receiving Italian economic aid,
later, during WWII, keeping a low profile, they manage to stay in power for
longer than any previous Paraguayan government.
1936 – March
Throwing his last army in the north at the Italians, Emperor Haile
Selassie is again defeated in a close battle. The only organized forces left in
the field are now the forces facing Graziani in the south.
A military coup brings a new government into power in Bolivia. Bent
on making good the bad things that have
happened to Bolivia over the last few years, they are surprised by an Italian
offer of aid.
At the same time, Italian envoys are contacting the Argentine
government with a view to support a re-entry into power of Chilean general
Carlos Ibáñez del Campo, former president of Chile, who has sought refuge in
Argentina after being ousted in 1932. The Argentineans agree to let Italian aid
pass through Argentina for him, as well as to lend some help in tying down
Chilean forces.
1936 – April
Throwing his forces at the fortified line the Ethiopians are holding in
the Ogaden province, the Italians under Graziani in a 10-day battle manage to
break the opposing troops. The last organized Ethiopian army has now been
crushed.
The infant Italian nuclear program is strictly separated in three:
theoretical, reactor and bomb. Those included in the two last are sworn to
strict silence.
The building of a research center in the Northern Italian Alps begins.
Along with it is build a dam to provide the center with electrical energy for
its experiments. While theoretical research is till what takes up most time,
more and more is also poured into work on nuclear reactors and the nuclear
bomb.
1936 – May
Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selassie leaves Ethiopia. Later in the month,
Italian troops enter Addis Abeba, the Ethiopian capital. The total death toll
of the Italian forces has been 1.600 askaris and 3.000 Italians. Heavy use of
air power and chemical weapons have allowed for a comparatively easy victory.
Italian prospector teams, heavily escorted by Askaris and regular
Italian soldiers, are immediately dispatched into all four corners of the newly
acquired colony, to look for any natural resources, that might be worth mining.
Already known are coal, gold, salt and copper, and heavy investment into their
mining begins right away.
1936 – June
Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selassie brings the case of his country before
the Laegue of Nations, but to no avail. By the end of the month, the League
sanctions have been lifted, as they were not doing any good anyway.
Ethiopia is declared an Italian colony, combined with Eritrea and
Italian Somaliland into the AOI, and King Vittorio Emmanuel is crowned as
Ethiopian emperor.
Argentina and Bolivia mobilize their armies. They are concentrated at
the Chilean border.
As a consequence, Chile also mobilizes, and concentrates its forces
opposite the Argentine and Bolivian forces.
At the same time, general Carlos Ibáñez del Campo secretly enters Chile
to contact his supporters among the fascists in country.
1936 – July
Nationalist officers revolt first in Spanish Morocco, later all over
Spain. In many places in mainland Spain, the revolt misfires, though, and soon
the nationalists are in dire straits, as their main force is in Africa, with
the Mediterranean and the loyal Republican navy in between them and their
compatriots in mainland Spain. The rescue comes in the form of a number of
Italian transport planes, that are sent to Spanish Morocco, and begins ferrying
the nationalists over to Spain. On their way. Three of the planes crash,
though, two of them in French Algeria, and the discovery of Italian involvement
in the civil war causes an uproar across the world. Over the next half year,
arms shipments from Italy to the Nationalist double over several times.
Italian rule in Ethiopia is shaken violently, when a number of
chieftains, that had earlier accepted Italian rule band together and launch an
attack on Addis Abeba. Though the attack is beaten back, it signals the
beginning of a year-long guerilla-war, that the Italians answer with an
immediate program of reciprocal attacks.
With most forces out of the capital, a coup supported by the fascist
parties in Chile is launched. Though it is initially successful, the labor
unions and socialist parties oppose it violently. As army units align
themselves with different sides, the coup soon degenerates into a civil war.
Support for the junta is filtered through from Bolivia and Argentina.
1936 – August
The Spanish Nationalists on Mallorca, heavily threatened by a
Republican landing, appeal for help from Italy. The situation seems lost, as
the Republican force is 4 times larger than the Nationalist one, but small
amounts of men and weapons arriving hurriedly are enough to turn the tide (this
happened in actuality, the most famous Italian involved being Arconovaldo
Bonaccorsi, better known a “Conte Rossi”, the red count).
With fortune turning against the Chilean junta, Bolivia decides to reap
the fruits of its efforts, and sends its army into the arid northern provinces
of Chile, officially to help the junta against communist forces, but actually
to regain the provinces it lost in the War of the Pacific some 50 years ago
(and in the process also reap the provinces Peru lost to Chile in the same
war).
This makes the government forces send precious troops northwards, and
brings about a somewhat slower decline of junta fortune.
1936 – September
The Republicans re-embark from Mallorca, and head back for mainland
Spain. Over time the Italians now present in Majorca turn it more or less into
an Italian protectorate on the model of Fiume in the early 1920s.
Italy and Yemen renew their 10-year treaty of friendship and
cooperation for another 10 years. Included are clauses, that will see Italy
sending a military mission to equip and train the Yemenite army. With new
emphasis placed on the Italian-Yemeni relations, Italy hopes to pressure Great
Britain, as both shores of the Red Sea are now either controlled or influenced
by Italy.
Argentina, seeing the success the Bolivians are having in grabbing
territory in the Chilean north, sends its own troops across the border into
sparsely inhabited southern Chile, officially to restore order.
1936 – November
Talks are held between Italy and Nationalist Spain of sending Italian
officers and specialists to help form two mixed Italian/Spanish brigades, with
the Spaniards providing the rank-and-file and some officers. It is determined
to go forward with the plan. About 3.500 men are agreed to go to Spain.
After defeating the Chilean navy in a naval battle, Argentinean troops
(both ground- and seaborne) occupy the coastal cities of Puerto Montt and
Valdivia, thereby cutting off the southern, sparsely inhabited third of Chile.
At the same time, Argentinean troops cross the border into central Chile,
advancing on Santiago, where junta troops welcome them. In the north, Bolivian
and Chilean troops bring each others to a standstill north of the port of
Antofagasta.
1936 - December
Having
made up his mind, that larger numbers mean larger honor, Mussolini increases
the number of Italians to be sent to Spain greatly, and begins forming entire
wholly Italian divisions next to the promised mixed brigades. Large-scale
transfer of Italian volunteer units, complete with weapons and officers, start.
Previous to this time, about 1.500 Italians have already entered Spain, but
over the next three months (to and including February 1937), this number will
grow by app. 20.000 men from the Italian army and 27.000 from the Blackshirts.
These are mostly formed into three black-shirt and one army division. In the
mixed brigades the Falangists (the Spanish fascist party) – 10.000 in all -
make up the rank-and file and some of the officers. Connections are being made
for future use. At the same time, a system of rotation of officers from the
Italian armed forces into the volunteer formations in Spain is also instituted.
Together with a large corps of observers and analysts, this is designed to use
the Spanish Civil War to weed out those officers not suited for modern warfare.
At the same time, it is seen as a good way to weed out the
carreer/bureucrat officers who have only reached their rank thanks to
connections. In the end one of the first that go is Badoglio.
Argentinean troops land in the back of Chilean lines north of the port
of Antofagasta, bringing their defense to collapse. The Bolivians take the city
soon thereafter. This pretty much ends the Bolivian campaign.
1937 – January
Resisting German pressure, Mussolini makes a stand on behalf of the
Italian Jews. Italy will not enact laws patterned after the German Nuremberg
Laws, and will not throw out Jewish members of the Fascist party. This is not
out of any love for the Jews as such, but more because of a sense of loyalty to
some of the old-time Jewish Fascists, and because he sees an advantage in
keeping his options open vis-a-vis the Palestine question. Hitler, seeing it as
a minor point compared with the gain he can get out of finally breaking the
Italian/British/French front around Germany (it already began to crack with the
British/French mishandling of the Italian invasion of Ethiopia) gives in.
Though the point will be pushed over the following years, Italy stands fast.
(This, of course, in reality ended in Italy enacting exactly the kind of racial
laws described. With larger Italian interest in the Middle East, I have let the
Palestine-, and thus also Jewish, problem become so important to Mussolini,
that he doesnt give in to German pressure. As events in 1939, when Hitler
signed a non-aggression and cooperation
pact with Stalin shows, Hitler also was not unknown to compromise wildly to
attain his aims. As will later be shown, this has some interesting
consequences).
1937 – February
An assassination attempt on Rodolfo Graziani, the Italian viceroy in the
AOI fails.
In negotiations between Italy and the ultra-nationalist proto-fascist
Jewish organization Betar, an agreement is stamped out, that will see
Betar-members receiving military training in Italian camps. It is made clear to
the Betarists, that Italy in the years to come will cooperate closely with
antisemitic Germany and maybe also the Arabs in the Middle East, but made clear
that both are only as long as it serves Italian interests.
The Betarists, having nowhere else to go for military training and
needing it to protect themselves in the ongoing Arab revolt in Palestine,
agree. In additional protocols, Italy agrees to help Jews wanting to leave
Germany finding a home. (In OTL, Betar cadres DID receive training in Italy,
but cooperation between Italy and the
Betar pretty much seized after Italy and Germany began working together in the
Spanish Civil War, and Italy expelled Jewish members of the fascist party as a
concession to Germany. I have let Italy play the Betar card longer. It would
later go on to become the Stern Gang, notorious for its terrorist acts against
the British, and even rumored to have offered cooperation against Britain to
the Germans in 1941)
1937 – March
Fighting in the 2nd Pacific War between Chile, Bolivia and
Argentina pretty much reaches a standstill. In the north, logistics trouble
prevent the Bolivians from advancing further than the port city of Antofagasta.
In the south, the Argentineans are in firm control of the southern third of the
country, that is sparsely inhabited mainly by Indians. While fighting is
continuing in the central third of the country, the Chilean government is
firmly entrenched against further advances by the junta and Argentinean troops,
that control roughly one fourth of the central third of Chile, where fighting
still rages. It is here that the remainder of the war is played out.
1937 – April
The Italian nuclear research facility north of Bergamo in the Alps is
finished. The staff makes up several hundred men, to which comes a guard
complement of an additional several hundred men.
1937 – May
On finding hard facts of participation of the Ethiopian Coptic Church
in the assassination attempt on him, as well as many other attacks on Italians,
Graziani gives the order for a massacre of 449 monks and laymen at Debra
Libanos, Ethiopia's holiest monastery. The result is a disaster, as it only
gives the Ethiopian guerillas more support, and subsequently leads to a violent
uprising in Gojjam province.
1937 – September
ENI strikes oil in the al-Hasa province of Saudi Arabia. The building
of a pipeline to the coast, and facilities to load it unto tankers there
immediately begin. By the end of the year, 40.000 tons of crude have been
produced. (In OTL this happened in
March 1938, but I have moved it back 6 months as the Italians also got
their concession 6 months earlier in the TL than in OTL).
The building of refineries in Italy for its processing immediately
begin. A small refinery also begins building in Saudi Arabia.
1937 – November
A state commission begins to buy amounts of pure graphite and uranium
abroad, in anticipation for the building of the first Italian nuclear reactor.
At the same time, money is poured into establishing an industry producing the
same in Italy.
1938 – February
The duke of Aosta is made the new vice-roy of the AOI, with Ugo
Cavallero as his operational commander. The campaign against the Ethiopian
guerillas is intensified after a period of slacking of the Italian
anti-guerilla effort, among others to the initiative the guerillas have had
since the beginning of the uprising in Gojjam province. Substantial
reinforcements are sent to the AOI.
1938 - April
In preparation for its program of “Demographic Colonization”, the
building of some 2.000 farms, that in all are to make up homes for some 20.000
settlers, are built in Libya.
The Italian army begins a program to update the artillery. Initial
plans to build new artillery pieces are shelved, as a study shows that with new
carriages, ammunition, propellants and sights, the old artillery can serve
quite well for another 10 years at least (this study WAS done, but apparently
buried by Ansaldo, one of the big Italian armaments firms, as there was more
profit in building new artillery).
1938 – May
Italian control of Gojjam province in the AOI has again been restored,
at least of the roads and towns. While the guerillas have lost a lot of men,
they remain in being, though.
Italian diplomats, hearing of the imminent arrests of the Iron Guard
leadership through one of their agents, manage to smuggle out Corneliu Zelea
Codreanu and 15 of his companions. Though the Romanian government is protesting
violently, there really isnt much they can do.
1938 – June
The Italians manage to flush out and crush the main concentrations of
Ethiopian partisans in the Ankober region north of Addis Abeba, among others
bagging several of the leaders of the July 1936 attack on Addis Abeba. (this
did not happen in reality. The guerillas were surrounded, but in late June,
seasonal rains intervened, and when the campaign was restarted later in the
year the gurillas got through the Italian ring thrown around them).
1938 – July
Plans for the first Italian nuclear reactor are finished. Its
construction in the Alps begins right away.
Lise Meitner, Austrian-German nuclear physicist of Jewish origin, flees
from Germany across the border to Italy (in reality, she went to Sweden).
A seize fire is finally agreed upon in the 2nd Pacific War,
after it has lasted 2 years and brought enormous destruction to the Chilean
heartland. Over the course of the war, the junta has lost considerably in
power, and is now only propped up by Argentinean troops. Consequently, the
Argentineans dont see any reason to stay in the war. Peace negotiations begin.
1938 – August
Not believing their
luck, Italian prospectors strike oil in Libya. Investigations of the viability
of production on a larger scale starts right away (In real life, exploration
for oil did not begin until after 1955. Oil was not discovered until 1959, and
exports only started in 1961. In the following, I let the Italians need only
two years to find oil (they have all the resources of the entire state as
backing, as well as enlisted help from foreign companies), but give them the
same two years to ready facilities before exports can begin).
The expansion of the
infrastructure in Libya, in preparation of the oil boom, that is coming,
begins. Harbors are extended, roads and railroads built, and oil refineries in
Libya start building, too.
The first sustained
nuclear reaction takes place at the Italian nuclear research facility north of
Bergamo. Experiments with reactor design begin, and substantial amounts of
heavy water are ordered from Norway. Research into ways to provide the
plutonium or U-235 to build a bomb from also takes its start.
Lise Meitner is
included in the theoretical part of the Italian nuclear program. Development of
the reactor and bomb are still kept secret from her.
1938 – September
A peace treaty
finally ends the 2nd Pacific War. Chile retains her heartland, but
loses 61% of her territory (including most of the rich copper and nitrate
deposits, that go to Bolivia) and 12% of her population (not counting the war
losses). The provinces of Tarapaca and Antofagasta go to Bolivia, the provinces
of Magellanes, Aysen, Chiloe, Lanquihue and Osorno to Argentina.
1938 - October
In the first of a
series of mass-emigrations, Italy launches its program of “Demographic
Colonization”, and a convoy with some 20.000 settlers is sent to Libya. It is
the plan, that some 100.000 impoverished peasants will be settled in Libya over
the following 5 years, in batches of 20.000 a year. By the end of the period
Libya will be home to approximately 230.000 Italians, making up some 22 % of
the population.
In the AOI, another
series of operations to pacify Gojjam province begins.
Told of recent
German success in fission of the atom by Otto Hahn and Fritz Strassmann through
a letter to Lise Meitner by the two German scientists, who dont know what they
have done, the Italians decide to go public with the fact, that Enrico Fermi
already managed this in 1934. Out of safety considerations, it is decided to
put the date it happened in 1937, though, and the results obtained since then
are severely doctored. In the end, it takes three months before they are ready
to go public.
1938 – December
The first tanker
with Saudi crude oil sails from its terminal in Ras Tanura for Italy. So far,
this year the Saudi concession has produced 600.000 tons of oil. While about
half covers the entire Italian domestic need for oil, thus freeing up
considerable amounts of foreign
exchange that would otherwise have been used to purchase oil abroad, the
remaining 300.000 tons are partially used to build up strategic reserves for
the armed forces, partially sold on to earn additional hard currency.
Physicist Enrico
Fermi goes to Sweden to receive the Nobel Prize for his work in Nuclear
Physics. He is denied to have his family accompany him, and returns later in
the month. (In reality, Fermi took with him his family, and after he received
the price went to the US. This because of two reasons, the official being that
his Jewish wife was suffering because of the anti-semitic laws Italy had
enacted some years back, the not-so-official being that he could not obtain
funds for his research in Italy. He was instrumental in the later success of
the Manhattan Project, the US/British construction of the A-bomb. In this
timeline, I have removed both obstacles to Fermi staying in Italy).
1939 – January
Libya is divided into two parts. One, the fertile regions to the north
including 550.000 km2 with 770.000 inhabitants, of whom 95.000 Europeans (12 %
- mainly Italians) and 30.000 Jews, is included directly as a part of Italy the
same way the coastal Algerian provinces are departements of France.
The rest, 1.210.000 km2 with only 50.000 mainly Moslem inhabitants,
makes out a military district separate from Italy (this happened in reality).
1939 - February
The Success of Enrico Fermi in splitting the atom is made public.
The building of a second and third nuclear reactor, using other designs
than the first begin.
After the logic “the weapons to those who use them”, a naval air arm is
created, equipped with torpedo bombers. The first three torpedo bomber
squadrons start .
1939 – March
Czechoslovakia seizes to exist. Germany occupies the remaining part of
Czechia and puts it under military occupation, Hungary annexes the
Carpatho-Ukraine, and Slovakia declares its independence.
In the Soviet union, the army is one year into its expansion program,
and contains 120 infantry and 16 cavalry divisions.
Libyan
Jews are granted Italian citizenship, thus further increasing the percentage of
“Europeans” (this is based on the French policy in Algeria).
Conflict
between the duke of Aosta, the viceroy of the AOI, and the military commander
Ugo Cavallero leads to a falling out. During the subsequent investigations,
Cavallero convinces the Duce to transfer complete control of military
operations to himself (the duke of Aosta had earlier had the final say), while
the duke remains as a figurehead only. Subsequently, Cavallero institutes a
policy not unlike the one used against the Senussi in Libya during the 1920s.
The guerillas themselves are mercilessly hunted down by mobile columns
supported by air-cover, while the local population is rounded up ad confined to
special settlements. The insurrectionary territory is then occupied piece by
piece, and the now evacuated land can be parcelled out in a way as advantageous
as possible to future Italian settlers . (in reality the duke of Aosta won out
in this contest, mostly because of Cavalleros inability to pacify the country.
I gave him more success and gave him another year or two to prove himself and
the old, well-proven techniques).
1939 – April
Italy invades Albania. The Albanian crown is given to the Italian king.
Exploitation of the small Albanian oil reserves begin immediately, as does the
search for other natural resources. Chromium is a prime target, and it is soon
found.
The German military government, that has governed Czechia until this
month is abolished. The protectorate of Bohemia-Moravia is instituted.
1939 – May
Italy converts three infantry divisions to motorized divisions. At the
same time, a third armored division and a second armored corps are set up. (In
OTL, the first three were the 9th, 10th and 52nd
Infantry Divisions, that were only converted to lorried (ie: semi-motorized
divisions), though. The third armored division was formed around here, but the
second armored corps was in OTL really a “lorried” corps for the three
above-mentioned divisions).
Italy begins laying the first tracks on the trans-Libyan railway, going
from the border with Tunisia in the west to the border with Egypt in the east.
Intended to supplement the “Via Balbo”, the road running about the same course,
it will take several years to complete.
Italy and Germany sign the “Pact of Steel”
1939 – June
The program of “Demographic colonization” of the colonies is expanded
to also include the AOI. Over the next 5 years, in an ambitious scheme to turn
the Italian colonies indeed “Italian”, some 400.000 Italian settlers, who
signed up for resettlement will be settled in Libya and the AOI. While some
200.000 will be settles in Libya, another 200.000 will go to the AOI. (In
reality, some 40.000 families volunteered for resettlement. As the group of
20.000 settled in reality in Libya in 1938 included 1850 families, I have
assumed 10 to be the family size, and simply multiplied 40.000 with 10).
The region of Hatay is transferred from French-controlled Syria to
Turkey to ensure the Allied-friendly stance of the Turkish government.
An Italian Indian Ocean squadron, made up of some 4 cruisers, is
created and based in Mogadischu.
1939 – August
Germany and the Soviet Union sign a non-aggression pact, with secret
clauses, that divide eastern Europe up into interest spheres.
Italy sets up its first dedicated torpedo bomber unit. License
production of torpedoes under a Norwegian design begins (this did not take
place in OTL. Italy DID produce some torpedoes under a Norwegian design – and
fairly good ones at that – but let the license expire without having it
extended. As a consequence, Italy entered WWII with a shortage of torpedoes,
and had to import them from Germany. Torpedo-bomber units were also only set up
AFTER Italy entered WWII).
The buildup of the Italian special forces also begins.
In the first positive result of the hunt for hydrocarbons on the soil
of Italy proper, prospectors hit a large natural gas field at Caviaga near Lodi
in the Po region (this event in actuality happened 5 years later, in 1944, but
given greater emphasis on drilling, that in OTL only came about in 1945, I have
pushed it back somewhat).
1939 – September
Germany and Slovakia attack Poland. Great Britain and France in turn
declare war on Germany. Within the first week it is clear which way the
fighting will be decided – Poland is clearly losing, and losing fast. The
Polish troops desperately try to retreat first behind the Vistula river, later
into a bridgehead to be formed in SE-Poland, but to no avail. They are crushed
within the month.
By mid-month, the Soviet Union joins in, and invades Poland from the
east, occupying roughly half of Poland.
The UK, seeing Italy as a pro-German country, that might any day join
in on the German side, seizes all sales of coal in exchange for currency. From
now on, all coal deliveries are to be paid in war materials. These, however,
are sorely needed by a rearming Italy herself. So Italy is in trouble.
Germany offers supplies of a like size as the ones that formerly came
from the UK, and is willing to accept payment in agricultural products, of
which Italy has enough. The capacity of the railroads between Germany and Italy
is thought to be far too small to maintain the pre-war import levels. The
solution to the problem is found, though: the coal is sent through Rotterdam
and Antwerp in neutral Belgium and the Netherlands, then sailed on Italian
(also neutral) colliers to Italy.
1939 – October
By early October, the final remnants of Polish resistance are crushed.
About 80.000 Poles have made it abroad. Over the next 9 months, 40.000 of these
make it out to France from Romania and Hungary to fight another day. They are
assisted herein by Hungarian and Romanian authorities, not too keen on the
ever-increasing power of Germany.
The USSR forces the three Baltic countries into accepting agreements,
whereby 10.000s of Soviet troops are based in each of them.
Italy begins construction of a number of bunker-installations for POL,
both in Italy, Libya and Ethiopia.
Another batch of 20.000 Italian settlers leave Italy for Libya and
their new homes.
Italy begins building a facility to test different methods of separating
plutonium and U-235 from the enriched fuel rods it begins receiving from the
three reactors that are now online.
1939 – November
The USSR attacks Finland….the Winter War begins.
The Italian economy is put under central leadership, as during WWI
(Italy is just not at war yet). A Lengthy inquiry is held about ways to
increase efficiency in the armaments industry.
Deliberations about how to protect Italian trade, clearly threatened by
the British blockade of German coal shipments leads Italy to start the
conversion of the liner “Roma” into the carrier “Aquila”. Conversion of the
liner “Augustus” into the auxiliary carrier “Sparviero” starts at the same time
(in reality Italy tried to convert these two liners, but conversion of the
“Roma” didn’t begin until June 1941, and of the “Augustus” even later).
Volunteers start gathering in Italy to go to Finland and help the Finns
fighting the invading Red Army. The first contingent leaves at the end of the
month (In reality 5.000 volunteers gathered, but were denied passports by the
Italian government to not offend Germany).
In Germany, Fuhrer directive 8, outlining the general plan for the
coming offensive into France, Belgium and the Netherlands is put out. It calls
for three army groups, named A, B and C. C is tied down opposite the Maginot
Line in the south, while A is placed in the center, opposite Belgium, and B
opposite the Netherlands. The main thrust of the attack will be behind B, but
can be switched to A if opportunities arise.
1939 – December
An Italian volunteer Brigade is set up in Finland, and starts training.
Soon some of the veterans of the Spanish Civil War are separated into a special
battalion. These enter the frontline by late December.
Further finds are made of natural gas at Caviaga near Lodi in Italy.
The Italian concession in Saudi Arabia has increased production to
around 1.000.000 tons. With the increased availability of oil, allocations to
the strategic reserve in case Italy is forced into the war are increased, but
still the earnings of hard currency rise, as sales to Germany and the prices
taken for it rises. They are to a large degree used to buy machinery to expand
the Italian arms industry, but also as a tool to pressure Germany into selling
equipment it would otherwise not sell, like radar for the Italian fleet.
In Italian-Japanese negotiations, Japan agrees to receive some 100.000
German (now including Austria, the Sudetenland and the Wartheland) Jews, who
will be transferred from Germany by rail to Italian harbors, and from there on
Italian and Japanese ships to Manchuria, where they will be settled.
At the same time, Italy promised to settle some 150.000 German Jews in
the Italian colonies AOI over the next 5 years.
1940 – January
The effort to settle Italians in the colonies begins to pay off. In
Libya, Italian citizens make up some 160.000 of 840.000 (19%), in the AOI
225.000 of 7.600.000 (3%). Over the next year, the Italians will begin sending
some 50.000 Jewish refugees from Germany and Poland to be settled in Libya, and
another 50.000 to Ethiopia.
After some deliberation, partially due to worry about flaws in the plan
outlined in Fuhrer Directive 8, partially because of fears that part of the
plan fell into allied hands, when a liaison plane had to make and emergency
landing outside Germany, Hitler decides to stay with the original plan. (In
reality, due to the above reasons and Mansteins convincing, his plan was
instead put through, based in Fuhrer Directive 10, that appeared on 29 January
1940. This called for the main thrust in the Ardennes and was, as was seen in
our timeline, hugely successful).
1940 – February
The Italian Volunteer Brigade in Finland ends its training, and is put
into the line next to the Swedish Volunteer Brigade, freeing up Finnish troops
for the Karelian Isthmus. A Hungarian volunteer Battalion is attached to
the Italian Brigade (the history of the Italian brigade is modelled on that of
the Swedish).
The USA inducts its first National Guard division into federal service.
1940 – March
The Winter War comes to an end, with Finland losing large tracts of
land, where one in ten of the Finnish population used to live.
Rashid Ali, anti-British and fiercely Arab Nationalist becomes prime
minister in Iraq.
In Italy, physicist Otto Frisch determines roughly the vicinity in
which the critical mass of Uranium 235 will be (in OTL, at the time he was in
Great Britain. With both Fermi and Fritsch (the only physicists initially to
guess rightly about the magnitude of the critical mass of Uranium) located in
Italy, I give the Italians a more pronounced head start. Among the Allies,
Fermi and Fritsch were the ones to find the correct magnitude, in Germany
Walther Heisenberg guessed at 2 ton, essentially eliminating any serious German
research. Fritsch calculated that 1 or 2 pounds would do the trick. The actual
amount was 16 pounds).
The Japanese establish a Chinese puppet government under Wang Ching-Wei
in their zone of occupation.
1940 – April
Germany attacks and
occupies Denmark and Norway. British, French and Polish forces are landed in
north Norway, and go on to fight alongside the remaining Norwegian forces.
Italian observers
are attached to the German forces poised for the attack on France, both to the
army and air force. They will put the lessons learned in their observations to
good use later.
The first
facility for research into separation of Plutonium and U235 from the used
fuel-rods from the Italian nuclear reactors goes online.
1940 – May
On 10 May,
Luxembourg, Belgium and the Netherlands are invaded by Germany. Initially with
the main thrust with Army Group B, the reserves are sent in where opportunity
for large gains arise. By the end of the month, the Germans have encircled the
Belgian army, the French 1st and 9th armies, and large
parts of the British Expeditionary Force in central Belgium. Most of the
reserve RAF planes and additional British and Canadian divisions are sent to
France (in reality, the BEF and French forces managed to retreat to Dunquerque,
from where 330.000 of them were evacuated. Additional British and Canadian
divisions were sent, but not the reserve RAF planes. Actual losses (other than
POWs) are far heavier than in OTL. This scenario is taken from Command Magazine
issue 42).
In Norway, the
fighting rages on, but it is more and more obvious, that it is a losing battle.
Options to get out are sought.
The Soviet Army
reaches a strength of 160 infantry and 25 cavalry divisions. During the last 14
months, 40 infantry and 10 cavalry divisions have been formed.
1940 – June
It is finally acknowledged, that the battle is lost in Norway, and the
remaining Polish, British and French troops are evacuated.
In western Europe, the Germans finish crushing the pocked in central
Belgium, and advance across the Belgian/French border. The Allies briefly try
to stand on the Somme/Aisne line, but are thrown back. Additional British
territorial divisions are sent to France, but end up just covering the
evacuation, when they are isolated in Brittany by a German thrust. By the end
of the month the rest of the BEF has been evacuated. Of 400.000 men committed,
250.000 have been lost. Fighter command is reduced to less than 200 planes. The
French are still fighting, however. Yet. (this is also from the previously
mentioned copy of Command).
In the Baltic countries, the Soviet infiltration is finally brought to
its conclusion: the governments of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are forced to
resign.
At the same time, the Soviet Union invades and takes away from Romania
the provinces of Bessarabia and northern Bukovina.
Italy begins building its fourth and fifth nuclear reactors, both being
test-beds for power-generation.
1940 – July
Early in
the month, France finally sues for peace. An armistice is signed, severely reducing
the strength of the French army, both at home and in the colonies. Most of the
French navy is to be confined to harbors, where they are to be temporarily
rendered useless as war vessels. In Great Britain, Charles deGaulle wows to
continue the fight against Germany, and maneuvering between pro-government and
pro-deGaulle groups begins in the colonies. Late in the month, marshal Petain
is granted dictatorial powers by parliament, that subsequently dissolves
itself. (I have pushed all this back 2 weeks due to the longer Battle for
France).
Out of fears for French vessels falling into German hands, the British
launch Operation Catapult, taking control over all vessels they can at all.
While they manage to seize all French vessels in British ports with little loss
on both sides, the action goes totally awry at Mers-el-Kebir, where 1300
Frenchmen lose their lives as they refuse British conditions. At Alexandria,
the French through a ruse of making as if they are scuttling their ships at sea
manage to get out of the harbor. They subsequently make full speed for home
waters, but end up having to go into internment at Taranto, as Force H, the
British naval force that attacked Mers-el-Kebir, blocks the way to France
itself. One Battleship, four Cruisers, and a number of smaller ships thus go
into internment (the French actually began building up steam to run out of
Alexandria, but were convinced not to by the British)
Given the French resistance to British attacks, France is allowed to
maintain a sizeable fleet of lesser vessels (cruisers and down) for the
protection of the colonies.
Given the successfully concluded campaign in western Europe, Germany
begins a program of de-mobilization. 35 infantry divisions are slated for
disbandment, though initially only 17 are actually disbanded. The rest are
relieved of 60% of their personnel. The future strength of the wartime German
army is to be 120 divisions.
At the same time, having to face the hard realities of the lacking
quality of its armor, Germany ends production of the PzII, and starts upgrading
the armor of the PzIII and PzIV.
With no immediate threat around, Germany also s