Spain Without Franco

This is a very good TL, but I’m not sure if the outcome is completely valid. I also found it a little difficult to understand at first, so readers may benefit from several read-throughs. I agree with you discussion of how important the war was to the WW2 following it, although you don’t mention the positive effects for Germany (good training + secure western flank) or the negative effects for Italy (bad reputation, loss of possible ally, loss of considerable amount of military machinery and loss of funds sent to Spain.)

I’m not sure that Franco was quite as important as you suggest, but, rereading my books on the matter, I’ve decided you have a point. Franco had no real political allegiance (apart from himself, if that) and could therefore unite a nationalist front that was almost as divisive as the republicans. The POD is a valid one and quite effective, although, it you dislike determined events, you could have a republican ship shoot the aircraft down.

Without the Army of Africa, the forces in Spain will find themselves in trouble very quickly, although a smaller nationalist zone is a possibility. It would need some luck and co-ordination, but it could be done. Without the army of Africa, is an attack on Madrid even possible? I would think that, with victory apparently round the corner, the communists would wait to win before trying to seize control, but they did an even stupider thing in OTL, so it is possible.

The idea that either Germany or Italy could outright invade Spain, I’m afraid, is impossible. Neither power has the resources to invade and run the nation, while it would almost certainly provoke international intervention. There is no way the Italian or German navies could run a RN blockade, while France is in the path of any land attack. What I suspect you meant was that the two sides seek to use the groups they’re backing as pawns and later puppets. The stalemated war and de facto partition of Spain is the probable outcome of this policy. That assumes, of course, that the German resources hold up under the new demands from Spain and the little remuneration they receive.

Without a non-aggression pact between Hitler and Stalin, it is unlikely that Hitler will crush Poland. If he attacks, he runs the risk of Stalin either supplying the poles or allowing his forces to destroy the poles and then hit Germany while it’s weakened by the war. I strongly suspect, however, that Hitler will offer the Poles some kind of alliance, based perhaps on mutual Jew-hating and fear of the USSR, while building up his own forces for an attack on Russia, if that happens. If Stalin hits first, it gives the west a fig leaf for allowing Hitler to fight Russia, supplied by the west.

Allow me to suggest a more plausible method of getting a partitioned Spain. Allow events to run as OTL until the first battle of Madrid, which was won mainly because of the supplies sent by Stalin. Fear of communism was a powerful motivator in those times, so lets have the British and French declare an end to foreign interference – and install a blockade. The RN alone could block both sides from transporting supplies in ships, while the French could seal their borders and close off the land and air routes. The French might be reluctant to cooperate, but if the British make it clear that France will face Germany alone unless they do, they’ll fall in line.

Which of the Spanish sides would have the advantage? The republicans would hold most of the factories, the navy and have a lot of people who have a real reason to believe in a republican victory, but they would have the communists either acting to subvert the war or sharpening their knives until the war was over. The nationalists would have better aircraft and the main body of the army, but lack real popular support and many supplies for their advanced weapons. If they fight with abandon, they’ll soon run out of weapons and fight on the same level as their opponents, with consequently, a drop in morale. Franco was not a particularly bright general, as generals go, so he might decide to withhold offensives for the time being.

So, after a year or so of uneasy truce, there’ll be a semi-formal partition of Spain. The war will probably break out again when – if – WW2 does, with Hitler supplying the nationalists again after France falls.

Thoughts?

Republic and Empire

Well, John, You’ve done it again. Whetted my interest in a part of history I know little about. Keep up the good work.

First, always a good idea to mention mistakes made by other members. Second, as far as I know, your POD scans. It seems logical, while not changing too much of OTL. That said, I’m not sure that they’d look for new blood in areas that they had previously shunned. (If that’s what they did, I would like clarification and my reference books don’t cover this area.) I can’t see the grand masters, accustomed to wielding power, giving up most of it (de facto if not de jure) to their underlings or councils, its just not in the mindset of the time. This also, as you’ve noted, destabilises the relationship between the Knight grand master and the Pope. I suspect that the pope would rule that the grand master need not consider himself bound by his oath, and gamble that the master would win the resulting row/dispute/civil war.

In your AH, I’m assuming that the grand master either lost or did not get involved in disputes to whom he really had power over. That means that there will be a constant period of trying to slip out of the Pope’s control, while maintaining the power of the council.

I did get two ideas from your AH. 1) Would it be possible to end up with a complete theocratic state covering most of Europe? 2) Would it be possible to remove the Pope or reduce him to complete insignificance earlier than OTL?

England is ours

I agree with your basic idea, although it would be a very near run thing. I think that if the British knew that they were facing a more competent foe they’d leave nelson with instructions not to go too far from Britain, although nelson was not known for his following of instructions. Yes, the militia would be of dubious value against the Grande Armiee.

Regarding the peace terms, I would expect nappy to keep Gibraltar for himself (its too valuable a naval base to give to the Spanish) I can’t see America allowing the French to reoccupy Canada (remember, one of the reasons for the American Revolution was the fear that the British intended to bring Popery back to America.), therefore they’ll take it themselves, possibly with the contrivance of the British authorities. I don’t see nappy keeping the British set at twenty ships, while the British could try to set up base in India or Canada and keep fighting from abroad. That would be a very interesting story to do at some point.

Without Britain stirring the pot, I expect that most of the Eastern Europe nations would make whatever terms they could get with Napoleon. It was British money that kept them fighting, far more then British support, even the navel side.

Troops from abroad in England? Where from? America can’t send an army to England at this time, even if they joined the war at the same time. On the other hand, if Nelson has holed up in the Caribbean or Canada or somewhere and then seized control of the channel again, it might be doable. That would, of course, mean that Nappy could not resupply the troops in England.

Incidentally, if France got the 100+ ships that they took off Britain, how useful will they be? France did not have a huge body of seamen to use, so would nappy just break them up or sell them to Denmark or somewhere?

Like the other AHs, you did give me ideas. What if we have Nappy abandon the idea of taking England by force and instead expand upon the Orders in Council to make any British ship a legitimate target. Then use the French navy for commerce raiding, rather than futile lunges at Britain or the British navy. This might distress the British more than laws that can’t be enforced.

Or, if you want a real world-changer, what if you have the invasion happening in the time of the early French revolution? There was a lot of anti-establishment hatred building in Britain during those years, so what if the French invade and are welcomed or ignored?