Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

Points of Divergence

Something I do from time to time is make a list of ideas I’ve had or culled from the AH board that might be interesting to writers looking for an idea. The following list is ideas that anyone can use; just send a copy to CTT. I'll update fairly frequently, placing the newest ideas at the top.

What's New

Changing Arms Supplier: In Japan, after their opening, the Japanese were taught army tactics by the French, but then dumped them in favour of the Germans after the French lost the Franco-Prussian war in 1871. What if a similar effect happened in the Middle East after the six days war? American (and some French) technology had beaten the soviet technology with ease. If the Egyptians, Syrians and Iraqis had all started buying arms and training from France, Britain and America, what effect would it have had? Would they have recognised a rump Israel as the price for that training?

Germany Denies Zimmerman: The German Zimmerman was – and I’d laugh at this if it was AH – dumb enough to admit to the Zimmerman telegram. This launched America into WW1. What if he’d done the smart thing and claimed it was a British plant? We would not only have the US NOT joining the war, but being rather p***** at Britain. No more loans, no arms sales, no nothing, plus massive anti-British feeling. The Germans might even try buying supplies from the US, which the USN would have to escort through the British blockade, which might lead to the US joining Germany? Even without that, can the British and French stop the 1918 German offensive without the US troops?

Pacific War starts by accident: Let’s suppose that, instead of pearl harbour, the pacific war starts differently. What if the Japanese decided – claiming fear of the nazis seizing them – to occupy the Dutch east Indies, source of the oil they needed. There was no British garrison on the islands, so the Japanese could take them with ease, the Dutch having the option of surrendering, fighting a hopeless fight of being allowed to flee to Australia. The Japanese make sure to treat the Dutch islanders well. Now, the US had announced it would not allow a transfer of title and, technically, that’s not happened. On the other hand, the US would be concerned about the Japanese having a military base in that area and they might move their fleet to the Philippines and patrol those waters carefully and aggressively. If there was an accidental shoot-down of a US or Japanese aircraft, the war might start that way, by a blunder instead of a sneak attack. Would the US have been so keen to fight that war when it started, as FDR could become blamed for the war starting. I suspect that the Japanese would have destroyed the US fleet in the first few months and it would be sunk in deep water. Would the US continue the fight?

What if China had managed to develop a modern army by 1900? The Chinese did attempt to make a modern, well-equipped, army, but they suffered problems relating to a desire to avoid foreign influence (understandable) and the perceived requirement to keep the older troops, such as the bannermen, in service, despite them being useless. But, if they had had a proper army at the time of the Boxer Rebellion, they might be able to defeat the invading armies and take back Hong Kong.

What if the Chinese nationalists had retaken Hong Kong in 1945? The British and the Chinese engaged in a race to liberate Hong Kong from the Japanese. Had the Chinese got there first, might they have attempted to keep it, instead of allowing Britain back in? If so, Britain would have found it very difficult military – and impossible politically – to retake Hong Kong. What effects might that have on the Chinese Civil War, or the absence of any collection of education, liberty-loving, Chinese into communist China.

What if the US had given the slaves land after the USCW? The US made several promises to the former slaves and black freemen regarding land, notably the ’40 acres and a mule’ promise, but regenged on the promises and allowed the south to impose the ‘Jim Crow’ laws in exchange for the south not stirring up more trouble. But what if they had? The former slaves would have had the chance to become a black power bloc in the south and tackle racism properly, instead of allowing it to shift faces.

What if the Confederate States broke up? The CSA had several teething problems when it was being formed, but the threat from the US made it imperative to stay together. What if they’d all tried to fight the civil war on their own, instead of as a group? Or, more interestingly, what if some of the states had declared ‘neutrality’, not fighting the north, but refusing to allow military forces to operate across their territories.

What if Iran was not invaded during WW2? In WW2, the British and Soviets conspired to invade Iran in order to evict German advisors and secure supply lines. The invasion was fast, decisive and very powerful – the Iranian forces were blasted through very quickly. But what if a face saving deal had been made, or perhaps the Shah making a very firm warning, or perhaps the US blocking the invasion plans. This has interesting future effects, Iran may declare war on the axis when the US enters the war and therefore get US lend lease and a guarantee of its territorial integrity. An Iran on the allied side frees up Germany to cause trouble with Turkey, as well as the USSR, while it allows the axis to play on Arab nationalism far more than they could in OTL. The post-war implications are the most interesting; with the Shah in a stronger position with a better army, he may escape being disposed by Islamic fundamentalists and therefore become a stable nation in the Middle East.

What if the Leninist takeover in 1917 had been defeated? In Russia, the current rulers were aware that a coup of some kind was coming, which made their lack of activity unexplainable. What if they’d struck first and stayed in power? Comrades Lenin and Stalin might end up dead, while Russia would be a nominal player in the war until the end, not doing much, but playing a role at the peace conference. That would imply that they would keep at least the Tsarist part of Poland and demand a share of German reparations. They might also demand what they were promised in secret treaties, which means no Turkey and perhaps no Iran.

What if Italy had demanded payment in advance? Italy was promised huge colonial concessions in exchange for her joining the allies in WW1. The British and French defaulted on their agreements, therefore leaving the Italians with a huge death toll and little to show for it. What if they had demanded payment in advance, such as part of Egypt and Algeria, a share in the Suez Canal, German East Africa and so on. There are two possible outcomes here; either the allies’ get mad and Italy stays neutral, or Italy gets that territory and therefore something to make the war worthwhile. That might avert WW2, as Italy would have less cause to go Fascist and would have more to occupy it in any case.

Variants on the Monroe Doctrine: Something else I’ve been wondering about is variants on the Monroe Doctrine. Some ideas I did have included:

What if the British rejected it or refused to support it? The doctrine depended upon the RN to uphold it, as America was unwilling (and, in the event, it was unnecessary) to build the fleet and army that would be needed to evict any European colonists or occupation forces. Let’s have the British demand that the Americans specifically state that it does not apply to Britain, when (if) the Americans refuse, Britain declares that it will not interfere with anyone else breaking the doctrine, unless British interests are directly threatened. Germany, France, Spain and maybe even Russia attempt to re-establish their empires in the Americas.

What if the other American states rejected it? It was an incredibly arrogant demand that the US should be paramount in America, even if it did not rule all of America. Let’s say that a combination of the South American powers seek help from a European power, probably Germany, to upgrade their armies in 1900 or thereabouts. US mutters ‘Monroe doctrine’, but the south Americans say that they do not consider the US to have any control over their internal affairs and reject the doctrine.

What if the British had a similar doctrine for Asia? Possession of India from 1815 made Britain the only power of note in Asia. The British did nothing, however, to prevent the French, Germans and Americans from coming in and taking their own bits of Asian territory, therefore destabilising the British territory. What if the British had declared the Pacific to be a British zone – all others keep out! The only power that could outmanover British naval power would be Russia, but Britain could work with China, Japan and Germany to defeat them.

What if the North expelled the South? Something that always struck me as odd about the ACW years was that the North tolerated the south in the US, even through many of them dispired slavery, they were willing to keep the south in the US with slavery kept intact. But what if a northern version of the southern confederation decided to tell to south to give up slavery – or leave? The south had also been making secession threats, so what if the north said, ‘OK, go then?’

What if the USSR refused over-flight rights for satellites? The first satellite, sputnik, over flew the US, which the US later claimed entitled them to fly over the USSR. What if it had not? Even if the first one flew over South America, the USSR could claim that that only entitled them to reprocity, not the US. In which case, what will the soviets do when (if) the US starts sending spy satellites over the USSR? Shoot them down, like the U2 crisis? Or, what if the US gives in? That would mean huge holes in the development of satellite networks, and a huge setback to the space program.

What if the Space Treaties were not signed? The US had a huge advantage over the USSR by its system of commercial development, rather than everything being state-owned. The USSR managed to trick the US into hampering its space endeavours by agreeing to make the commercial ownership of space very difficult. But what if they had not?

Hit Counter