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Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM |
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This Day in Alternate History Blog
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Roma
Finis In the 3rd Century, the Roman Empire was at a nadir. Disaster
beset the empire on every front. In the east, the resurgent Sassanids captured the Emperor Valerian near
Carrhae. There were quite literally dozens of claimants for the throne of the
Empire, with the Historia Augusta, a contemporary work, identifying thirty
pretenders in the space of twenty years. Inflation
ravages the Empire on a scale never before seen. To the east, the Persians sack Antioch and devastate provinces. Palmyra,
under Odenathus, takes matters into its own hands and defeats the Persians
utterly. Gallenius, the Emperor after Valerian, supports him because there’s
nothing else he could do. In the west, Spain, Britain, and Gaul have broken away under Postumus,
who has a true capital in Triers, complete with a senate. Gallienus does not get the credit he deserves for saving the Empire. He
was quite capable, and was able to cut a deal with Odenathus. It is quite likely
that other emperors would have been worse. As a point of departure, let us choose the year 264.Gallienus dies from a
surfeit of peacock, or so the story goes. The reaction is quick. Aureolus, a general who was based in Milan,
declares himself to be the new Caesar, and marches on Rome. He is opposed,
however, by Marcus Aurelius Valerius Claudius. (Seriously). He is to be
henceforth referred to as Claudius II, and he rallies troops from the Illyrian
provinces. The two go to war in Northern Italy during 265. Eventually, Aureolus
emerges as the new Emperor in 266. He celebrates his time in office just long enough to witness two
barbarian invasions. The Goths pour into the Balkans in 268, sacking Athens and
Trapezunt, ravaging Asia Minor. At the battle of Naissus, in ATL Aureolus is defeated by the Goths, who
ravage Illyricum and Pannonia. The Alemanni lay waste to much of Northern Italy,
in ATL, and some actually reach the walls of Rome. It is not until 274 that a
new Emperor, Marcus Claudius Tactius, who had returned to Italy from Thrace,
defeats the barbarians in Italy. Meanwhile, in Gaul, Postumus continues ruling his Empire, with its
capital based in Triers. Postumus defeats a revolt by one Laelinus, an usurper
in Mainz, in 268, but avoids dying. The capital of the Gallic Empire is Triers, and it includes a Senate and
a Praetorian Guard. Postumus in OTL printed coins that were finer than those of
Gallienus, a trend that continues in OTL. The Spanish provinces seem to have returned to Rome because Laelinus was
of Spanish origin, and rather important. However, ATL sees them remaining loyal
to Postumus, as they did not defect until after he had died. Meanwhile, in the east, Odenathus continues his reign. Some sources
accuse Gallienus of having a hand in his assassination, and that certainly seems
plausible. (No Roman Emperor would trust having a large power such as Odenathus
in the east). Therefore, it seems logical that during the reign of
Aureolus, an attempt is made to assassinate Odenathus in 268. Odenathus
calmly and rationally responds by going to war with the Empire. Zenobia, facing tougher opposition than Odenathus, was able to take Egypt
and attempt to take Chalcedon, on the opposite side of the straits from
Byzantium. Odenathus, with an army composed heavily of Bedouin, is almost
certainly capable of taking Asia Minor and Egypt. Tacitus dispatches an army to Egypt in 276 to oppose Odenathus. It is, to
put it bluntly, slaughtered. (Any man who can take a ragtag force of Bedouin and
beat the Persians outside of their capital could defeat the Romans). Odenathus
controls Rome’s grain supply, and as a result, Tacitus must focus on defeating
Odenathus, instead of attacking Postumus, who reigns until 279. As a result, The
Gallic Empire holds onto Raetia. It’s worth noting here that Zenobia, according to some sources, was a
Jewess, and did support a synagogue in Alexandria. This could, obviously, have
dramatic effects on religion in the near east. It’s quite likely that
Odenathus’s son, Herodes, would adopt Christianity. So, by 280 AD, there would be, where there was once one Empire, three (or
four) states. Palmyra would control an independent Empire of the east,
encompassing Asia Minor, Egypt, and Syria. The Gallic Empire would control the
west. Italy and Africa would be
controlled from Rome, in the center. And the Balkans would, most likely, be
under a Gothic Kingdom which simply takes over the apparatus to govern the
Empire there. Religion is, of course, a huge question. I am not convinced that
Christianity was predestined to take over the Empire as the dominant religion.
As late as 312, much of the west was non-Christian, or even hostile to
Christians. In a scenario with a separate Empire in the east under an Arab
dynasty, there is no reason to assume that the western provinces will convert. Indeed, if, as we postulate, Herodes converts to Christianity, during his
reign, which begins, around, 284, then it will become fashionable to favor
paganism in the western provinces. An apt analogy may be Manicheans, who were
discouraged because they were from Persia, and thus associated with the enemy. Of course, I will readily grant the fact that Christianity did have
advantages over Polytheism. However, it should also be noticed that Mithraism
was practiced among soldiers, and was very popular in Gaul along the Limes. It must also be noticed that several Emperors supported a sun worshipping
religion. Aurelian in OTL attempted to create a monotheistic religion based on
“the Unconquered Sun,”,or Sol Invictus.
It seems likely that such a religion would be supported in the
“Roman” provinces of Africa and Italy. Postumus’s successor, on the other
hand, would probably try to steer a middle path. Christians, who refuse to take
up municipal or state positions, would almost certainly be opposed in Gaul. To the east, the Palmyrene Empire is entering a golden age. Herodes, with
his army driven by faith, invades Sassanid Persia in 290 AD. Palmyra’s army
was quite capable of defeating Persians in the field, as it was based on Bedouin
forces. Herodes takes Mesopotamia in 291, and in 292 actually takes Ctesiphon.
The Sassanids, meanwhile, fight one another. Hormizd fights his brother
Narses, who asks Herodes for help. The end result is the conquest of the
Sassanid Empire by Herodes, or, rather, the valuable parts, Assyria and
Mesopotamia. Palmyra, a mercantile state on the center of the trade routes of the
world, now controls the route between the East and West.
The outcome of this timeline is hard to predict. Islam seems as if it
will be aborted. The real question is the western Roman Empire. Perhaps a Gallic
Empire can survive for a longer period of time. It’s likely that the Germans
will still crash it, but if the Roman state has laid deeper routes in the west,
Southern Germany and the Rhineland, as well as Britain, might be speaking a
Romance language to this day.
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