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Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM |
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This Day in Alternate History Blog
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PoD:
1593 AD. Henri de Bourbon of Navarre, styled Henri IV of France, does not
convert to Catholicism from the Calvinism he has practiced up to this point. He
still pursues his claims to the Throne of France. Where
We Stand: Henri III was assassinated in 1589 without heir, and his nearest
living relative, Henri of Navarre, is a Calvinist. The Catholic devout rally
behind the duc de Mayenne, Cardinal Charles de Bourbon, or Felipe II of Spain.
The Huguenots, and those who simply believe that rightful heirs are rightful
heirs regardless of religion, back Henri. So do those Frenchmen of mercenary
character; Henri is much richer than any of his would-be rivals, and can afford
to outfit an army personally. Henri has mopped up the south of France over the
past four years, and is running something approximating a civil government out
of his tents (!). Spain has backed his rivals, but the Spanish are terribly
insolvent, and their cash reserves are gone. Queen Elizabeth of England and
various German princelings have hailed him as the King of France, but none
actually send troops or money to help him (well, Elizabeth did, but that was ten
years ago). No matter. He is called the Gallic Hercules for a reason, and it’s
more than the stupendous chin. It helps that the English are keeping the Spanish
busy with constant piracy (or naval engagements, depending on how you look at
it).
There’s nothing for it but to lay siege to Paris. He has already broken
Paris once, in 1590, but it is the hub of the Catholic League. The duc de
Mayenne is within and held up as King by the League. Having lost the rest of
France, only the true zealots remain among the League forces. Those who would
ever surrender have already done so. A Spanish garrison of 400 defends the city
as well. Henri settles in for a long stay while his finest soldiers, Cholera and
Malnutrition, go about their grisly work, though as before, he permits women and
children to depart Paris unmolested. He busies himself going over the tax
receipts and planting records from those provinces not in rebellion; Bretagne,
among others, must be crushed after this. But Paris first. 1595:
A desperate soul finally opens the gates, and Paris belongs to Henri. The
Council of Sixteen, Paris’ ruling body of late, had fractured, men loyal to
individual Councillors cutting one another down in the streets. The duc de
Mayenne had been kidnapped and bandied about by first one, then another as a
bargaining piece. Paris was an empty city, but it was his. The Spanish troops he
executed to a man; foreigners would not bar his entrance to his own capital.
Charles de Mayenne was permitted to live, after having been stripped of his
ancillary titles of Duke of Burgundy and Lorraine and forswearing any claim to
the Throne of France. His friend Sully would crown him King, as the prelate
would not do. He named Sully the new Duke of Burgundy, and another of his
supporters Duke of Lorraine. But his war, alas, was not over. There were still
Spanish troops on French soil, at Calais, in Bretagne, and points between. The
duc de Bretagne had declared himself King now that Mayenne was surrendered, and
was prepared to carry on the Catholic fight with Spanish money. Henri sighed. At
this rate, he would have to name a Huguenot ruler of every province. Except the
provinces where every soul had starved. The parlement of Paris would be
permitted to endure, because one of its men had been the one to open the gates;
but it would forfeit its right of remonstrance. Paris’ electoral council would
be abolished; martial law for the moment, until a suitable person could be named
Comte de Paris. 1599:
The duc de Biron is found guilty of treason, stripped of his title and
hanged. A Huguenot is named to replace him as well. Only Mercouer de Bretagne
remains in defiance of the King; the Spanish forces, never numerous, had fallen
into disarray with the death of their King last year, and unsure of their pay or
their orders, often disbanded. Henri has been at war for a decade, and would
like peace; but there is no one in all Europe to broker it between him, a
Huguenot, and Felipe III of Spain, a Catholic. Sigismund of Poland is
approached, but negotiations will drag on for two more years with the duque of
Lerma before terms are agreed to. Bretagne will be left unmolested, and Henri
must do something about the tide of emigrants wending their way through the
Pyrennees into Spain. 1599:
[Henri annuls his marriage to Margaret of Valois to marry a daughter of the Duke
of Rohan. Thus, the di Medici family retains Tuscany] 1601:
Henri formally disbands the first estate, on the grounds that he has no need of
advice or counsel from the Roman Church. Since Henri will not summon the
Estates-General again during his reign, this edict will remain technically
untested. Just to be fair, he promises to release the Pope from the Edict of
Bologne, which gave the King of France the right to appoint and deny Bishops and
Archbishops within France, as soon as the Papacy lifts the interdict against
France. He then begins a campaign to quietly divvy up monastery lands among his
supporters a la Henry VIII of England, with emphasis on those near Paris. While
antagonizing the Church in this manner may seem unhealthy, the French Church is
again controlled by Rome, which in turn is controlled by Habsburgs. Henri is
forcing his nobles to choose between the Habsburgs and him, with no doubt as to
where the money is. It is a not unsuccessful gambit. 1601:
[Henri is too busy negotiating a difficult peace and antagonizing Rome to bully
land and passage agreements out of Savoy] 1602:
the magnates, pointing out their past help and the potential for error within
the Paris municipal government, convince Henri to establish a municipal chamber
consisting of all persons whose taxed wealth is above a certain threshold. Henri
has good relations with the wealthy, and distrusts elected government within
Paris, so he agrees. 1603:
Queen Elizabeth dies, and James I becomes King of England and Scotland. 1605:
The new Pope lifts the interdict on France in exchange for a guarantee by Henri
not to molest the Church further nor to restrict its practice and worship. 1607:
[Thanks to its increased population, the French colony at Acadia is not
abandoned] 1608:
Colony of Quebec formed. Henri requires no religious tests to emigrate, and so
it is more quickly populated than OTL. Also, there’s a certain number of
Frenchmen who’d rather be well away from Henri. 1609:
James I mediates between Felipe III of Spain and the Dutch; Dutch are granted a
12-year truce. OTL it was Henri, but he’s no longer an impartial mediator, so
they go with James; James establishes closer ties with the Dutch. 1610:
Henri Assassinated. He has no legitimate heir, although he has two legitimate
daughters and perhaps a dozen bastards of various genders and origins. Quick as
you please, de Sully (Duke of Burgundy and Finance Minister) produces documents
to the effect that Henri wanted his eldest bastard, Cesar de Bourbon duc de
Vendome, to succeed him; the Huguenots, Sully included, know they’re doomed if
there’s a Catholic resurgence at this point. A certain number of Catholic
Legitimists rally
around Henri de Mayenne, but de Sully points out that as his father renounced
all claims to the throne in writing after the siege of Paris, he inherited no
claim whatsoever. The legitimate heir is Henri de Conde, nominally a Huguenot
but of suspect devotion to any creed. There are peasant uprisings around Paris,
and the fanatic core of the Huguenots rally around the bastard Cesar, but the
Prince de Conde manages to convince Sully that the Huguenots will lose no ground
under him and Sully quietly withdraws his support from the bastard. Henri V is
crowned. He is 22 years old, a Huguenot because his father and his King were but
without any real devotion, and suddenly the most eligible bachelor in France,
perhaps Western Europe. He cannot allow Sully to continue in any formal
position, but as the Duke of Burgundy, Sully will continue to attend Court and
be a significant figure there.
A brief interjection about the balance of power between religions at this
point seems in order. The Huguenots were never numerous in France, because
aspects of Calvinist doctrine are inherently distasteful to peasants and to
titled nobility. Most estimates put their high point at about 10% of the total
population, with nearly all of their following among the free burghers, minor
landed gentry and educated professionals. That last includes many wealthy
commoners and military officers, however; the Huguenots were very interested in
converting the wealthy and military, for obvious reasons, and largely
successful. Estimates suggest that a majority of Henri IV’s officers were
Huguenot, and that despite their low population Huguenots controlled roughly
half of the nation’s wealth. In TTL, the support of the King and his
re-allocation of titles and lands from zealous Catholics to supporters have
shifted the balance even further. About 12% of France is now Huguenot, with
roughly 30% of the titled nobility and at least 60% of the nation’s wealth.
Effectively, the peasants and traditionalist nobility remain Catholic, but every
free and wealthy commoner and many of the new nobility are Protestant. And now,
on with the show. Henri
V and the Twenty-Five Year’s War
The initial years of Henri V’s rule are relatively tranquil, peaceful
and profitable, with only a minor spat with Spain at the Duke of Mantua’s
death in 1612. Reconstruction following the French Wars of Religion are
completed, and a pattern of continuing development is set even as the truce
between the United Provinces and Spain draws close to its expiration. Henri is
swiftly wedded to a sister of Frederick the Elector Palatine; Calvinist brides
of royal stature are difficult to come by. Rearmament ensues.[1]
The peace is broken before anyone expected, however, in Bohemia.
Objecting to the religious policies of the Holy Roman Emperor Ferdinand II,
Bohemia elects Frederick its new king. Regarding this as treason, the Emperor
sends in his troops to crush Bohemia and Frederick.
At the outbreak of war, Frederick has neither an army nor plans to
acquire and lead one; he is related by marriage to the Protestant Kings of
England and France, however, and a neighbor and co-religionist of the Dutch.
Money to acquire an army of mercenaries virtually pours in from every angle, and
while Ferdinand’s forces easily subdue Prague, once the element of surprise is
gone there are no easy parts to this campaign.
The Netherlands truce expires, and Spain begins moving its troops along
the border of France, the so-called “Spanish Road”; Dutch and English naval
supremacy make ocean transport impossible, and France is nervous whenever a
Spanish army is on its border. There are two points along the Road where troops
are particularly vulnerable to attack: Savoy, and Lorraine along the Rhine.
Recall that Lorraine is now in the hands of one of the most militant and devout
Huguenots in France.
Henri finds himself dragged into a war when the Duke of Lorraine attacks
and scatters a Spanish army headed north to the Netherlands. Rather than
denounce Lorraine, he pretends that was the plan all along and moves troops
through Savoy (allied to France, but still polite to Spain) to attack the Val
Telline and close the Spanish Road. He is completely successful, due in part to
a daring General of Cavalry named Armand du Plessis de Richeliu and in part to
his deeper pockets. [2] Spain cries to the Pope for aid, who sends an army north
from the Papal States; it is crushed as well.
This may be a mistake, however. The French peasantry and its conservative
nobility have tolerated a Protestant King; they have tolerated war on Catholic
powers; but destruction of the Pope’s own army is another matter altogether.
French armies are hastily withdrawn from the field to suppress rebellions in
France and an ill-conceived invasion by Brittany, but the money, cavalry,
artillery, and trained officers are virtually all loyal to Henri. Henri IV the
Heretic had done his work well and secured Paris, now Henri V would rout out
rebellion from the provinces, disarming his subjects, destroying internal
fortifications and finally conquering Brittany (his new favorite, Richeliu,
would be named Duc de Bretagne). The delays and costs, however, kept him from
the field of foreign battle for several years, and undid much of the good work
he had at first labored for. Some scholars would call this the Ninth French War
of Religion, but this is not entirely accurate, as only Henri has a proper army.
Fortunately, the delay is affordable. France’s early efforts and
continuing piracy have rendered Spanish attempts to reconquer the Netherlands
laughable. The flow of silver from Paris and Amsterdam to Frederick is
unchecked. The Protestant Evangelical Union, headed by Frederick and by
Christian of Anhalt, engage in battle after battle in north-west Germany with
few decisive advantages being held by either. In 1623, James I of England sends
money and token troops, while the Calvinist nobles of the Holy Roman Empire are
all acknowledging Frederick as King of Bohemia and Elector Palatine (despite the
Emperor’s award of the latter title to Maximilian of Bavaria).
In its broad sweep, the War goes much as OTL. Gustavus Adolphus of Sweden
is butterflied out, and the Swedes perform unimpressively. However,
Frederick’s greater staying power means that the war rages chiefly from Prague
through Hamburg and back several times, spreading East only in its later stages.
The increased delays frustrate the Emperor, who relieves Wallenstein of command
in 1629 and gives it to Maximilian of Bavaria, head of the Catholic League.
Without being granted the Duchy of Mecklenberg, Wallenstein returns home to
Prague an embittered retiree, and the new Duc de Bretagne senses a mind ripe for
treason.
The war progresses badly for all comers in 1634, as Frederick of the
Palatine dies of natural causes, Maximilian dies by what is assumed to have been
a French assassin, and Wallenstein leads a massive insurrection in Prague with
French arms and money, forcing the Emperor to flee briefly. Bernard of Wiemar is
proclaimed the new head of the Protestant Evangelical Union, despite having the
poor taste to be Lutheran, and it’s suspicious how many of the proclaimers
have French surnames and French coins in their pockets. An assembly crowns
Wallenstein King of Bohemia, but he is captured and killed as the rebellion is
put down. Still, the Imperial army and government collapses, stunned, as its
major leaders are dead or in retreat.
The Peace of Cologne is drafted in 1636, essentially acknowledging the
status quo. All silly religious proclamations and redistribution of electoral
privileges are forsworn. The Emperor gets Upper Austria back from Bavaria,
Frederick’s son Charles gets his electoral title back, the election declaring
Ferdinand II’s son his successor is upheld, elections with a living Emperor
are forsworn, and northern Germany is rearranged to grossly favor Brandenburg,
Saxony and the Palatine, in that order. Bavaria and Sweden get nothing.
Wallenstein is posthumously acknowledged as a legitimate King of Bohemia, the
Crown’s electoral nature is reasserted, and Ferdinand’s son is “elected”
King of Bohemia for the moment.[3]
In theory, that’s the signal for all Catholic powers to cease their
internal squabbles and liberate France. It doesn’t really work out that way;
the Catholic powers are pretty much broke and more than a little tired, but
Spain is game with whatever allies it can dredge up. It’s an unmitigated
disaster; while it’s easy enough to invade France and live off the land, the
Duc de Bretagne has spent ten years training his army and putting down
insurrections on this very land, although he is too old to personally lead them
anymore. The invaders are swiftly annihilated, French money flows to
insurrectionists in old Portugal and Catalonia, and the French army itself flows
through the latter. Felipe III’s successor finds Madrid itself menaced. The
Peace of the Pyrennees, signed in 1643, pledges Spain not to support any other
power against France, and Portugal resumes its sovereignty. France gets a
substantial chunk of the “Spanish Netherlands” (more than Artois). Henri
wisely does not bluster for Catalonian independence, despite funding its
rebellion; not only is it unworkable, he remembers Brittany and doesn’t wish
that even on Spain. De Bretagne does not live to see the treaty; Henri dies
shortly thereafter, in 1646. The 25-Years War has come to a close. Fallout
and Futures
What will become of France and the French after the 25-Years War? Well,
we’re still in the age of Kings, and a great deal depends on personal
idiosyncrasies. The central issue, though, is the religion question.
Henri V, as a historical figure, didn’t seem to have any religious
passion to speak of. He was raised a Huguenot, and converted to Catholicism late
in life, without apparent emotional investment in either. His sons and daughter,
though, were all devout Catholics. France is experiencing a religious revival
during Henri’s reign, and demonic possessions and witch-burnings were not
unknown, nor was a revival of honest charity and good works; I suspect the
monarch’s apostasy ends with a willful King Louis XIII (not OTL’s)
converting back to Catholicism to better rule his people. And so the religious
question is still not solved; the Huguenots will not be forced to emigrate in
time to become Prussians. Calvinist and Catholic will keep at each other, but
perhaps France will get lucky and lead the way into religious tolerance.
France just might arrive at a stable, collective government this way. In
OTL, the parade of Henri IV, Richeliu, Mazarin and Louis XIV—four competent
autocrats in a row—removed every trace of democracy and noble participation
from the French government. Richeliu cannot appoint an Italian he never meets to
a Council of Regency which doesn’t exist, so Mazarin will go on to be a highly
effective Pope, while the French chain of dictators is broken at the halfway
point. The two-chamber Estates and the parlements
have the opportunity to evolve into a working government rather than vanishing,
only to have dictatorship vanish in turn in Revolution.
The Holy Roman Empire in general and Bohemia in particular have been
granted their escape from the Habsburgs. I’m particularly optimistic about
Bohemia evolving into a pluralist, democratic state within the HRE; eventually,
the other Electors will move to crush it as a destabilizing influence, but its
example can apply to the HRE itself. I believe Brandenburg will eventually
become Emperors, and if it goes much as OTL, then Prussia and Austria never
divide Germany between them.
I’m not sure at all whether the increased British expenditure and death
will impact the Revolution there overmuch, nor derail its nearly inevitable
Empire.
In the dim and dusty future, I see a Europe divided between two large
monarchies with democratic elements, France majority Catholic, the HRE majority
Protestant, but both with substantial elements of the other. The collapse of the
Habsburgs accelerates, Spain and Italy falling into the French orbit, and France
fortifies Quebec fast enough that it is unlikely to ever lose it; a Britain
feeling isolated from the Continent and hostile to it will likely end up the
laboratory for social movements like capitalism and republicanism, when and if
they come. [1]
I haven’t traced Fred’s lineage to verify the existence of such a sister;
perhaps she’s butterflied in. The point is that Henri needs to establish ties
with other nations, especially other Calvinist nations, without requiring
himself to war with Spain. That would be the Palatine and Brandenburg, pretty
much end of list. [2]
In TTL, Henri IV is succeeded not by a child whose Regents are corrupt,
self-interested ninnies, but by a halfway competent young man who can at least
preserve the Heretic’s accomplishments, if not necessarily add to them. Thus,
France is much wealthier and with better infrastructure at the start of the war
than in OTL.
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