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Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM |
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This Day in Alternate History Blog
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North And
South
This is not the
standard American Civil War Alternate History, but an attempt to see how the two
sides would have developed if the south seceded peacefully, instead of fighting
and winning the civil war. Everyone
seems to accept Harry Turtledove’s version, but I thought that it was
unrealistic, so here is my take on the subject. Anyway, the Point of Divergence,
if it’s really needed, is Lincoln, or whoever becomes president in 1860,
decides to let the south leave the union peacefully. In OTL, throughout the
civil war, the south achieved miracles with the development of an industry.
However, the industrial might of the USA was enormous; the city of New
York alone had more productive capability than the entire confederacy.
Therefore, the CSA leaders must have pinned their hopes on two things:
outside intervention and the north losing the will to fight. In this timeline, there
was no war to stimulate production and the south would remain a largely
agricultural nation. This has the
advantages, for the ruling elite (the planters), that the source of production
(and tax money) would be in their hands and give them a source of power not
relating to their size. They will
also attempt to play around with the voting laws to prevent any other group from
gaining an ascendancy in CSA politics. This
will not encourage the workers to give their utmost for the state. In the immigration
front, I suspect that the CSA would have almost no immigration at all, because
of the absence of opportunity noted above.
Paul Kennedy notes in ‘The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers’
that the USA, during the Civil War, received 800’000 immigrants, the south
received none (or too few to be mentioned.) On the other hand, the
USA started out with a vast supremacy in every category, men, machines, and
morale. It will almost certainly be
enhanced from immigrants from the CSA as well, both poor white men and fleeing
black slaves. Therefore, the USA
will continue its economic growth and become one of the most powerful nations on
the planet, and, perhaps, with the end of slavery in its borders, the most
enlightened as well. I’ve seen some ACW
timelines that feature the North reintroducing slavery, the South re-enslaving
all the free blacks and the south abolishing slavery.
Excepting The Guns of the South, which was a special case, none of
these are really plausible, although for different reasons. (Authors note: I
found the CSA’s decision, after learning what their descendents thought of
them, to be very plausible indeed in TGOTS.) One very good reason
why the slaves would not be freed for a long time, if ever, is the fact that
they are regarded as property. How
keen would you be to give up your probity because someone else thinks that you
should? You would at least want to
be paid for your trouble, which means that the non-slaveholders, the huge
majority, would have to shoulder the burden of your sins.
For Example, let us assume that the following is true:
Now, let us assume that
the CSA government decides to ban slavery.
The slaveholders, who have most of the political power, will demand that
they be paid for their ‘property’. Therefore,
the total cost, for the government to purchase the slaves, is 300 X 30000.
According to my calculator, the total cost would be 90’000’000, or
ninety million pounds. Therefore,
every free, tax paying person in the state is going to have to pay nine hundred
pounds (and yes I know Americans use dollars) to free the slaves.
Now, who is going to want to spend that much to pay people, who in their
opinion have too much money already? The
non-slaveholders won’t want to shoulder that burden.
The slaveholders know that if they free the slaves without any
compensation, their wealth, both short-term (property that can be traded) and
long-term (cotton, wheat, etc, things the slave make for you), will go downwards
sharply. They will object strongly
to any attempt to free the slaves. Therefore,
the south has no pressing reason to free the slaves. Now, if slaves are
kept, it means that the work of honest white men, who have to be paid, will not
be wanted so much. They will not be
happy about the situation, but they will not be able to do much about it.
The slaves, in a vicious cycle, give their owners power, which they then
use to keep them slaves and themselves in power.
This means that the ‘landed aristocracy’ of the CSA would be draining
the life of the nation and consequently retards the development of the CSA. Now, this process will
also retard industrial development (discussed above) in the CSA.
The ‘landocrats’, for want of a better term, will not want big
industries being built that will induce the poorer people to move away from
under their control. Just because the USA,
in OTL, did very little on the world stage until 1917, does not mean that it did
not have an effect on world affairs. For
example, in 1898, the US fought the Spanish and liberated Cuba and the
Philippines from them. If this does
not happen, Cuba and the Philippines might spend decades of brutal fighting
trying to throw out the Spanish – or, if the Spanish last that long, the
Japanese will find it easy to take the Philippines off them in WW2. Therefore, the USA will
not become a pacific power. This
may mean the Japan becomes the dominant power there, or that she might lose the
Russo-Japanese war. Without America
to compete with, Britain may remain the dominant world power for much longer
past 1945. If America does not
become involved in WW1, would it end with a negotiated draw, or would the cost
be even higher? Conclusion:
If the two states do separate, the south is in serious trouble and world
history is changed completely. Imponderable: Slaves
Freed?
What if a realistic Confederate President decided (and managed) to free
the slaves at some point? Depended
upon when it was done, and the situation at that time, there could be very nasty
developments in the south. As I
noted, the slaves would become crucial to the economy of the CSA, and therefore
there might be a economic collapse. Blacks
would almost certainly be blamed for it, not to mention the high cost to the
taxpayer if there is a compensation plan. USA/CSA War:
Needless to say, much of
this will be disrupted if the CS and US go to war over something.
I don’t believe that the USA would join Germany and the CSA join
Britain, but I suspect that events would be like this: USA stays out of the
conflict until/if the Zimmerman telegram is discovered.
After that they’ll join Britain. The
growth to great power will be delayed. CSA is neutral in the
conflict, but enjoys an economic boom as Britain purchases foodstuffs from her.
This probably allows the CSA a few more years of life. Therefore, lets have a
basic timeline: 1860: The US president decides to allow the south to leave peacefully, doubting the wisdom of fighting to keep them, and the CSA forms as in OTL, but without the violence. 1861:
Federal fortresses like Fort
Sumter transferred to CSA.
1862:
The CSA forms its constitution and
Davis is elected as its first president. 1863:
The USA Bans slavery within its
borders, 1864:
The CSA protests over fugitive slaves
arriving in the US, but its told “too bad, old fruit” 1865:
The
Plantation Owners (Landocrats) effectively take over the CSA 1866: Prussians win the Austro-Prussian war 1867: Great Britain Concludes a trade treaty with the CSA, cotton for important supplies 1868: France attempts to take over Mexico, 1869: US mutters ‘Monroe Doctrine’, but is stalled by CSA reluctance to get involved, 1870: Immigration to the US increases by 10%. Significantly, there are a sizable number of poor CSA citizens, 1871: Franco-Prussian war breaks out. (Note: A year later than in OTL as France is preoccupied in Mexico) 1872: War ends with a German victory, French forces in Mexico defeated by Mexican rebels with US support, 1873: First attempt to ban slavery thrown out of CSA Senate, 1874: CSA bill to industrialise rejected by Landocrats 1875: First incidents of attacks on black slaves and freemen by poor whites (KKK) 1876: Slave Revolt in Texas, put down by CSA Army 1877: Indian ‘revolt’ in both US and CS territory put down by mutual action 1878:
CSA attempts to limit emigration, but bill
fails, Now lets slip forward a
few years… 1895: Cuba suffers a major upheaval as Cubans revolt 1896: CSA senate considers intervention, but is restrained by limited naval power 1897: Public opinion in CSA forces the government to intervene, however, the CSA navy is no match for the Spanish navy and is largely destroyed in the battle of the Caribbean 1898:
CSA government attempts to build a new industry
for warships, but discovers that the south has almost no infrastructure for
warship construction and the CSA is regarded as a bad investment risk. After
Spanish pogroms in the Philippines against Japanese, and with the tacit consent
and assistance of Britain, Japan invades and occupies the islands. 1899: The USA and Britain get involved in a dispute over Hawaii. Eventually settled by a co-dominion agreement. 1900: Boxer Rebellion in China. 1901: CSA emigration figures rise steeply, there is a disturbed US civilian reaction at immigration from the south 1902: Japan signs an alliance with Britain 1904: Russo-Japanese war breaks out 1905: After spectacular Japanese successes, the Russians regroup and the war ends with a return to pre-war positions 1913: Tension starts to grow in Europe to dangerous levels 1914: War breaks out between Britain/France/Russia and Germany. 1915: CSA supplies Britain with food in exchange for industrial help 1916: CSA declares war on Germany after ships have been repeatably sunk by German U-Boats, civilian unrest, however, makes prosecuting the war difficult 1917: The Battle of Cambrai shows the way forward for war, 1918:
The German army is beaten in the battlefield
and Germany sues for peace, Japan starts to demand a special place in China 1919: Treaty of Paris returns Alsace-Lorraine to France, hands over the German fleet to Britain and the German Asian colonies to Japan 1920: Australia registers concern over Japan to Britain 1921:
Economic collapse in Germany leads to the
establishment of a republic Now, forward to 1933
…… 1933:
Slave revolt in CSA leads
to the establishment of a fascist regime for the slaves 1935: Great depression leads to effective collapse of CSA 1936: Japan starts a vast military build up. 1937:
CSA becomes a fascist dictatorship for everyone
as the landocrats become feudal lords. Revolts
break out across the CSA As should be clear, the strategic situation for Britain and France is disastrous. Japan is now the strongest power in the Far East and can hold both of them off if necessary. If Germany joins in like in OTL, its hard to see what could stop the Axis, assuming that events follow the same path as in OTL. With no American presence, Japan could take and hold the oil islands and knock the British Empire out of the Far East. Revolts in India could push them out of India for good. |
