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US civil war ends early

The American Civil war lasted four years and required a vast expenditure to crush the confederacy, as well as leaving behind scars that have not yet healed in the US physic.  The need for total war, however, was decided by the first real battle of the USCW, when green US troops met green CS troops at the first battle of Bull Run. 

While the US had most of the advantages, the CS had a few that would have proven decisive in a short war.  Mainly, they had the advantage of interior defence, although that would mean little when considering the sheer size of the theatre, and the advantage of having most of the experienced war leaders. 

There were several possibilities for a US victory at Bull Run.  I choose the incident when General ‘stonewall’ Jackson was nicked by a bullet during the battle.  If some sharpshooter had shot a little more accurately, Jackson might have been killed, so our POD will be Jackson’s death.  This death would probably cause the confederate troops, without a definite line of command, to panic and to scatter.  The US troops have time to clear the field and capture any confederates left on the field.

The US victory has several repercussions.  States that were considering joining the confederacy stay in the US.  Recruitment in the confederacy declines, while the US recruitment shoots upwards, everyone wants to be on the winning side. 

The US’s main problem is that the 90-day terms of enlistment for most of their troops are expiring.  However, I’m having Lincoln or one of the US generals offer massive inducements to the troops to sign on for an extra year.  These could include land grants, bonuses and promotion for those who did really well.  Point is to keep the US force in being without massive problems. 

US forces press downwards pursuing the confederate forces.  This pursuit causes the confederacy to by unable to make a stand at any point, while the collapse of the fledgling CS infrastructure means that whoever ends up commanding the remains of the CS army is unable to find a safe place to halt.  The CS has no choice, but to seek a peace deal, although as some states start making separate peaces, CSA approval starts to look unnecessary. 

What sort of peace deal would Lincoln demand from the south after this quick victory?  I suspect that he would demand the limiting of slavery to the CS borders, the surrender and exile of the southern leaders, the return of the CS states to the union and the return of all federal property. 

This decision would satisfy few people on both sides of the abolishment debate.  The abolishments would demand the ending of slavery within the US and would push for federal support of emancipation.  If that was a compensated form of emancipation, I could see US taxpayers having fits over the cost, while some people would have moral problems over paying thieves for their stolen property.  You don’t pay criminals to return their stolen goods.  Simply pushing for confiscation is the simplest solution, but the plantation owners would have fits.  If the rest of the southern population blames them for the defeat and the death toll, they might be defeated, if not, its not impossible for them to fight back. 

The other long-range effects are quite interesting.  The US would have not displayed its power at building and equipping an army, leaving other nations without any conception of the power of the US.  The US-Spanish war might not happen, nor might the Germans have any conception of US power and keep the submarine offensive going in 1915. 

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