A Different Lancaster House Agreement

Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

A Different Lancaster House Agreement

What actually happened?

In 1978, after 14 years of insurgency warfare, President Ian Smith of the Republic of Rhodesia met with moderate Rhodesian African Nationalists at Governor’s Lodge in the capital city of Salisbury. This meeting paved the way for an interim government made up of people of all ethnicities in preparation for free and fair elections at a later date.

A whites-only referendum was held in January 1979, which saw an 85% “yes” vote, largely based on the provisions that any future government would reserve seats for the white minority in both parliament and the cabinet. In the subsequent elections, Able Muzorewa, a Methodist bishop and his UANC won. The country became known as Zimbabwe Rhodesia to reflect its power sharing scheme.

Great Britain, Rhodesia’s overlord until Ian Smith declared independence in 1965 (incidentally only the second nation to make such a declaration from Britain, the first of course being America), did not recognise the legitimacy of the elections, mainly because the political leaders of the communist backed insurgents had not been on the ballot.

Britain forced a meeting of all leaders, including Joshua Nkomo of the predominantly Ndebele ZAPU party and Robert Mugabe of the predominantly Shona ZANU party, temporarily allied as the Patriotic Front, at Lancaster House in London.

Lancaster House set the road to a “full free election”, which ended up seeing Mugabe and ZANU win. Leaving aside all the charges of electoral rigging, intimidation, and the mind boggling actions of a Britain lead by Thatcher with all of the Cold War connotations of giving power to a man whose “freedom fighting” has been backed by China, we basically see the foundations for Zimbabwe’s current troubles.

But what if the Lancaster House agreement had not seen an election forced through in 1980, after Britain had temporarily retaken colonial control of the country. What if a compromise had been reached, such as a lifting of sanctions in exchange for a full election in 1985, in which no seats were reserved for whites and everyone was to be on the ballot.

Point of Departure

The Lancaster House Agreement of 1979 puts in place a five year plan for economic rebuilding of Zimbabwe Rhodesia to be followed by full, free, and fair elections in April of 1985. British Troops are deployed to help the Rhodesian Defence Force keep the peace. UN and NATO observers are also deployed to monitor the interim government and the economic rebuilding.

What might happen

Given the historical industry and innovation of Rhodesians in general (the country had survived 15 years of sanctions despite being land-locked), a period of free trade would have seen what was already essentially a first world country continue to expand.

With moderate and educated African Nationalists help, slowly but surely the radical fringe of Patriotic Front support would have dwindled, with many of the members of ZAPA and ZANU joining the Muzorewa’s UANC.

Without being fired up by what could have been considered a white Rhodesian defeat in the guerrilla war, less people would have voted for the “victors” of the conflict, and allow themselves to take more considered views.

Without a Socialist African government taking power, there would not have been the mass exodus of white Rhodesians, fearing an anti-white massacre, from the country, which caused a massive brain drain for the emerging nation. These people took skills and the capacity to earn foreign currency with them when they left, if they had stayed the country could only have benefited.

By the time 1985 roles around, Mugabe and Nkomo find themselves on the popular fringe, their foreign communist support from China and the USSR respectively having dried up as their power base ebbed away.

The elections see a resounding victory for Muzorewa and other moderate African Nationalists. Although much reduced, there are a disproportionately large number of white MPs, mainly from regions that have a large number of white owned commercial farms. There is also a large number of white cabinet members, including Ian Smith himself who is named Minister of Defence.

The patriotic front sees only a handful of seats fall into its hands, and infighting and tribal tensions immediately break out between the constituent parties, effectively ending their potential as a unified opposition party. Scattered insurgency related incidents continue, conducted by fanatical communist insurgents, but they do not have much effect, largely due to their ex-comrades now serving with the Zimbabwe Rhodesia Armed Forces.

With moderate African leaders in power, there is none of the anti-contraception sentiment that occurred in OTL when certain African leaders criticised contraception as the white man’s plot to breed out the black man. Also, without Mugabe’s anti-British and anything English philosophy, the Catholic Church is not named as the State Religion, and that institutions anti-contraception stance is not as powerful.

This means that HIV does not spread as precipitously as it does in OTL. Also, with a world class medical establishment in country, the effects of disease in general are lessened. There is no uncontrolled population explosion in the country, just a gradual growth, allowing infrastructure to expand at a similar rate without cracking at the edges.

With the example of peaceful multi-racial coexistence at its northern border, South Africa begins to ease its own draconian institutions, possibly resulting in an earlier end to Apartheid and earlier general elections than in OTL.

With responsible government in place in Zimbabwe Rhodesia, there are no confiscations of white owned farms, leading to increased prosperity through cash crops such as tobacco and coffee, as well as to the generation of enough food to feed Zimbabwe Rhodesia and any two other nations.

The land inequality issue is handled sensibly through the state purchase of unused or under used farms from their owners and setting up modern agricultural communes, complete with training in modern farming methods and environmental conservation.

Overall, a huge opportunity for prosperity and racial harmony may have been lost with the Lancaster House agreement, but we will never know for sure.

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