Necessary Evil Parts 8-13
by Chris Oakley
Author
says: what if British Prime Minister Harold Wilson really was a spy?
muses Chris Oakley. Please note that the opinions expressed in this post do
not necessarily reflect the views of the author(s).
Necessary Evil |
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The Year 1980 |

April 13th,
on this day the anti-Communist insurgency in Afghanistan gained a
significant strategic victory with the capture of the government airbase
at Bagram.
Part 8 - Afghan DebacleUp until then the
airbase had been a major component of the Kabul regime's war to crush the
insurgents; its capture dealt a heavy blow to that campaign and would
later be cited by post-Cold War historians as an early link in the chain
of events that led to the Marxist dictatorship's collapse just six months
later. A new installment in Necessary EvilThe rebels' capture of the
Bagram airbase was aided by disaffected Afghan regular army troops who'd
gotten fed up with their low pay and the repressive nature of their
government; these men would later join their new allies in repulsing an
attempt by government forces to retake the base. Two days after this
failed offensive was turned back, the Afghan army's chief of staff was
fired.
The Marxist regime in Kabul immediately petitioned the Soviets for the
immediate deployment of massive contingents of Red Army combat soldiers to
Afghanistan to shore up the crumbling Afghan regular army. But with the
Soviet Union mired deep in its own internal political crisis, Moscow could
only spare 10,000 troops -- and even this small force would be hastily
withdrawn when food riots erupted in Kiev and Minsk in June of 1980 and
pushed the USSR one step closer to the brink of anarchy. The withdrawal
soured Afghan-Russian relations in the final years of Communist rule in
Moscow and seriously damaged the Red Army's reputation as a fighting
force.
Interestingly, some of the same Soviet troops who served in the 10,000-man
Red Army contingent briefly deployed to Afghanistan would later join the
anti-Communist rebellion that broke out in Russia in the fall of 1980.
June 23rd,
on this day food riots erupted in Kiev and Minsk, prompting Soviet
authorities to declare martial law in both cities.
Part 9 - Martial Law declared in Soviet UnionEnforcing
the martial law decree, however, proved easier said than done as some of
the militia units assigned to carry out that duty chose instead to side
with the rioters; this forced the Kremlin to recall its 10,000-man troop
contingent from Afghanistan as well as withdraw substantial numbers of
military units from East Germany and Poland. CPSU leader Konstantin
Chernenko (pictured) assured his generals these re-deployments were only
temporary and the military units involved would return to their original
assignments once order had been restored.
But Chernenko would turn out to be dead wrong on that score; Soviet forces
would never return to Afghanistan and by 1983, when the civil war in
Russia was at its peak, the once-massive Red Army contingents in Poland,
East Germany, and Hungary had been reduced to a shadow of their old
formidable selves. A new post from the Necessary Evil Thread by Chris
OakleyIndeed, an ironic consequence of these withdrawals was that at the
end of the civil war the only major Red Army detachment left in Germany
was the security guard detail at the Soviet embassy in Bonn, capital of
the United States' longtime NATO ally West Germany. Even the Soviet
defense advisory brigade in Cuba wasn't spared from manpower cutbacks; by
the time of Chernenko's death there were less than 100 advisors left on
Cuban soil.
The massive Soviet troop withdrawals from East Germany hastened the fall
of the Berlin Wall and were later credited by Western historians with
paving the way for Germany's reunification after the Russian civil war
ended.

October 13rd,
on this day the anti-Communist guerrilla war in Afghanistan ended in a
rebel victory as insurgent forces overran Kabul. Most of the leaders of
the deposed Marxist regime either committed suicide or fled the country
rather than risk falling into rebel hands; by contrast, the rank and
file among the Afghan armed forces chose to stay behind and embrace the
new government.
Marxists flee AfghanistanIt would take weeks for the new administration
to gain diplomatic recognition from most foreign governments, mainly due
to concerns about lingering political tensions between Islamic and
secular factions of the coalition that assumed power in Kabul after the
Marxists were overthrown. The United States, which had cut ties with
Afghanistan after that country's 1978 Communist takeover, would re-open
its embassy in Kabul shortly after Ronald Reagan was sworn in as
President in January of 1981.
Part 10 - Marxists flee AfghanistanThe
post-1980 coalition government would retain power for over a decade, a
remarkable accomplishment given the ideological divisions besetting it
and the anemic condition of Afghanistan's economy at the time the
Marxist regime collapse. But eventually the strain got to be too much to
bear, and in 1991 a new Afghan civil war would break out that reduced
the country to a state of near-anarchy before an Islamic fundamentalist
group known as the Taliban seized power in 1999. The U.S. closed its
embassy in Kabul in 2000 but would re-open it in the summer of 2001
after the Taliban regime collapsed in the face of a multinational
invasion of Afghanistan provoked by evidence the Taliban had aided
al-Qaeda in planning and carrying out the infamous 6/11 poison gas
attacks in Washington, D.C. and Los Angeles.
Ironically Operation Everlasting Freedom, the battle plan used by U.S.
and allied forces in their successful campaign to oust the Taliban, was
adapted from the Red Army's original badly bungled strategy for fighting
the old Afghan anti-Communist insurgency. It also incorporated elements
of a war plan designated Operation Jumpshot, which had been devised by
the Pentagon in the early 1980s for defending Pakistan against Soviet
attack.
November 4th,
on this day American voters went to the polls in what would be the closest
presidential election since the JFK-Nixon showdown in 1960. Incumbent
president Jimmy Carter was seeking a second term in the White House, while
Republican challenger Ronald Reagan sought to restore the Oval Office to
GOP control for the first time since Carter beat Ford in the 1976
elections.
1980 Presidential ElectionAfter Iranian Islamic militants seized the U.S.
embassy in Tehran in late 1979 Carter's approval rating had taken a steep
dive; it started to rise again, however, as events in the Soviet Union
appeared to be vindicating Carter's "soft" foreign policy rather than the
"hard" policy advocated by Reagan. Sensing that attacking Carter on
foreign policy matters might backfire, Reagan's campaign strategists opted
instead to focus on the weaknesses in Carter's economic policy. This
proved to be the right call given the recession which was plaguing the
U.S. at the time; during the summer of 1980, as political unrest in the
USSR spiraled out of control and the Summer Olympics in Moscow played to
much smaller crowds than previously expected, Reagan gradually closed the
gap on Carter.
Part 11 - Reagan ElectedBy late September
the former California governor was just four percentage points behind
Carter in most opinion polls. What might have been the most critical
moment of the final weeks of the '80 campaign came when, in what later
became known as "the October surprise", Reagan campaign staffers got hold
of a Carter debate strategy memo and used it to craft a devastating
counterattack for Reagan when he and Carter squared off in their final
presidential debate. On the morning of Election Day itself Carter and
Reagan were locked in a statistical dead heat and would remain so for
several hours as the returns came in on Election Night. Not until 1:32 AM
Eastern on November 5th, more than two hours after the polls had closed on
the West Coast, did Reagan begin to pull away from Carter-- and even then
he had to wait another five hours before he could declare victory.
Reagan's win came as a surprise to many political experts, who had
expected Carter to get a second term as president. But the GOP nominee
turned President-elected had worked tirelessly to build support among
moderate and conservative voters, particularly Americans of Eastern
European descent who shared his anti-Communist ideals, and that ultimately
helped tip the scales in his favor. The new president wouldn't have to
wait long for an opportunity to demonstrate his commitment to ending
Communist domination of Eastern Europe; just twenty days after he won the
presidency, the Russian civil war began

November 24th,
on this day the political unrest that had been simmering within the USSR
for months finally exploded into outright civil war as a group calling
itself the Patriotic Liberation Movement(PLM) launched a series of
attacks on CPSU buildings in Kiev, Gorky, and Minsk.
Second Soviet Civil WarIn his initial public comments on the uprising,
Soviet premier Konstantin Chernenko (pictured) denounced the PLM as
"criminals" and "traitors" and vowed the insurrection would be swiftly
crushed. He would be dead wrong on that score, however; the Russian
civil war would go on to last over six and a half years, during which
time the Warsaw Pact alliance would break up while Soviet-backed Marxist
regimes and guerrilla factions in Africa and Latin America would tumble
like bowling pins. In fact, by the time the last remnants of the Red
Army surrendered to the rebels in June of 1987, there would only be five
nations left in the entire world still under Communist rule-- and that
number would drop to four with the breakup of Yugoslavia in 1989.
Part 12 - Second Soviet Civil WarWithout
Soviet money and arms to prop them up, the Kremlin's allies found
themselves either toppled by armed revolt or forced to abdicate
in the face of widespread protests from non-Communist dissident
movements. The most violent of these upheavals came in 1985, when
Ethiopian dictator Haile Menigstu was assassinated just as his country
faced the worst famine in its history; the most dramatic instance of
non-violent change happened a year later when Nicaraguan Sandinista
leader Daniel Ortega quietly resigned after negotiating a cease-fire
with anti-Communist insurgents in his own country and arranging for free
elections to choose a new government for Nicaragua.
During the same time that the Russian civil war was raging, Albanian
dictator Enver Hoxha died suddenly of heart failure, plunging that
country into a political crisis which would last into the early 1990s;
in Romania, Marxist ruler Nicolae Ceaucescu would be overthrown and
subsequently executed in one of the bloodiest coups eastern Europe had
seen in a generation. Moscow's staunchest allies in the Middle East,
Iraq and Syria, would turn to China for military and economic assistance
as Soviet power gradually weakened and then collapsed.
Necessary Evil |
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The Year 1983 |
May 6th,
the PLM captured the Soviet government naval base at the Black Sea port of
Odessa, seizing tons of ammunition and equipment and thwarting the
Kremlin's hopes of reinforcing besieged Red Army troops in the Ukraine via
amphibious landing.
Part 13 - Fall of OdessaPost-Cold War
historians would later cite the rebel victory at Odessa as the point where
the tide of the Russian civil war began to turn against the Communists
once and for all; the events at Odessa seriously damaged morale in all
sectors of the Soviet regular armed forces, and in the late stages of the
war Red Army commanders found themselves increasingly plagued by
desertions. By 1986 some 200 Red Air Force pilots had gone over to the PLM
side and fifty Soviet naval personnel had been executed on suspicion of
mutiny.
By the time the war ended in 1987 only a handful of combat troops were
still fighting on the Communist side-- the rest, with the conspicuous
exception of a shrinking cadre of hard-line generals, had all chosen to
throw in their lot with the insurgents. In fact, the very week of the
final Communist surrender to the PLM one of the few remaining Russian
naval warships still under Kremlin control was torpedoed by a rebel
submarine in the Baltic; the submarine's captain would later be appointed
chief of staff for the post-civil war Russian navy.
Author
says this thread is inspired by an article in the
New Statesman Magazine. To view guest historian's comments on this
developing thread please visit the
Today in Alternate History web site.
Chris Oakley, Guest Historian of
Today in Alternate History, a Daily Updating Blog of Important Events In
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Imagine what would be, if history had occurred a bit
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