Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

The Nuclear Bomb Race: 1921-1945

Preface: It was ironic, many people in 1950 would reflect, that the devastation of the war of 1942 was largely due to a bullet missing its intended target. The survival of Hans Kriegfurher in 1915 at the battle of Verdun may well have been the cause of the devastating arms race and the horrific war.

Part One: Beginnings: Hans Kriegfurher was born in Berlin in 1896. He soon showed a clever and brilliant scientific mind and was top of his class in most of the sciences. However, he lacked the connections, even through some of his friends, to be started alone the course to a professorship or even a prestigious teaching post. While he was unsure, at the age of eighteen, what to do with his life, the First World War broke out and he was conscripted into the German army. He soon took part as a lowly private in several important battles and learned to hate the German commanding officers. Soon, he was pushed into the caldron of Verdun and injured when a bullet grazed the side of his head. His friend Adolf Schmitt pulled him out of the battle and took him to a hospital station, were he was rated as unfit to continue service and invalidated out of the army. Supported by his farther, Kriegfurher continued his studies of the atomic structure of matter and planned experiments involving fission reactions – which were brought to a halt by the end of the war.

Germany’s defeat made a profound impression on Kriegfurher, who may have become mentally unstable after his wound, and provided him with a bitter hatred of the French. He soon found that his beloved research had to be slowed down, as Germany could not afford the resources to continue with purely scientific research. Kriegfurher spent the years until 1923 in a university, inspiring many students and corresponding with foreign researchers, although he refused to have anything to do with French researchers. While, as yet, no one knew it, Kriegfurher had laid the grounds for the German atomic bomb.

1923, however, changed Kriegfurher’s life. Not only did he marry his childhood sweetheart, his research paper ‘Some observations on the practical effects of an uncontrolled fission reaction’ was read by a shadowy figure in the German government, whose mission was to rebuild Germany’s forces without the allies noticing. This officer, whose name, despite allied research, remains unknown, saw the potential in the research and offered some resources to Kriegfurher and the group of students and other scientists that he had formed. Kriegfurher, of course, did not know, until later, that Adolf Hitler had been jailed after an unsuccessful attempt to seize power.

Kriegfurher’s group spent several years building their reactor, duplicating research from Britain and America, although they were slowed by the need for secrecy and the limited resources. Furthermore, several of the professors, including Heisenberg, were deliberately trying to slow down the project or prevent its success. Heisenberg never forgave Kriegfurher for becoming the Noble Prise winner in 1932 instead of him.

In 1930, the Nazi party were becoming very powerful in German politics. Hitler, who was on track to becoming the German president, heard of the project through Goring and was very interested. He quietly opened up discussions with Kriegfurher and promised him full support, if he could give Hitler an estimated time of the bomb’s development. Kriegfurher believed that the bomb could be ready by 1940 and mass production started by 1942. Hitler’s rise to power in 1933 saw the newly-formed SS used to guard the project, which would now be carried out in total privacy and with no Jews involved. Kriegfurher was less than pleased about the removal of the Jewish physicists from the project and found them fringe work to do, but Heisenberg, along with several of the Jews, defected to Britain in 1934.

The British establishment was unsure what to make of Heisenberg’s warnings. Their own atomic research had begun promisingly in 1919, but had faltered as they lacked both the funds and a driven individual leading the project. They were also unconvinced of the power of the atomic weapons and desperate to avoid a massive and expensive rearmerant program. They therefore ordered limited expansion of their atomic research and began communications with America. FDR orders the beginning of a joint project with Britain.

The French are unaware of the potential of atomic weapons until the British open secret consultations. They consider the value of a pre-emptive strike on Germany in 1935, but the British are reluctant to support them and they’re too nervous to attack Germany alone. Furthermore, the French government is reluctant to admit that its plans for a defence line are perhaps useless against an atomic attack.

In early 1936, however, disaster strikes. The expended American/British programme has recruited a number of American workers, some of whom are Soviet spies. Stalin is swiftly informed about the bomb. He is disbelieving at first, but receives confirmation from Sorge, his spy in Tokyo, and several other spies in Germany. He is seriously concerned and mounts an all-out effort of his own to develop the bomb, even launching an attempt to kidnap Heisenberg from Britain, which fails. However, Hitler’s own spies in Moscow inform him of Stalin’s own research, and his nerves fail him.

Hitler had been planning to reoccupy the Rhineland, from which the treaty of Versailles had banned German troops, in early 1936. However, he was concerned about either France or Russia launching a pre-emptive strike against Germany, so he settled for formally repudiating that section of the treaty without any troop movements, which made it difficult for any power to interfere. Meanwhile, Italy had completed its occupation of Ethiopia.

However, worse things happened. In disgust with the west’s handling of Hitler, Heisenberg sent to every nation and paper he could reach copies of the German atomic plans and a brief description of the power of the atomic bomb. This spurred several other programs, notably France, Italy and Japan and prompted calls for general disarmouring. FDR proposed a treaty forbidding such weapons, but no one was really interested.

There were several reasons why not, but the most important one was the idea, shared by almost all of the powers, 'hey, if we had this gadget, we would have won the war with ease, lets get building!' The older powers saw that he was a chance to save their empires and the newer ones saw a chance of world power with such weapons. The Italians demanded that the Germans allowed them full access to their project in hopes of sharing information. Hitler was keen, but the German high command and Kriegfurher were seriously concerned and saw it as a major security risk. Mussolini, having obtained similar results – or lack of them – from the west, declared that he would go it alone. However, no one took him seriously. The Japanese, who also had a program and better secrecy, did share some information with the Germans.

The outbreak of the Spanish Civil War, later that year, drew the battlelines for the rest of the period. The cause and course of the war are well known, but the important part, as far as well are concerned, was the fascists bombing of a city, in spite of all the republicans could do to prevent it. This convinced a lot of people that the bomber would always get through and increased atomic paranoia. A peculiar effect happened in British and French politics in which both main parties were actually trying to stay out of office, rather than be the one to call Hitler’s bluff or bow down to him.

Meanwhile, there was a political disaster in America. An American agent who was involved with the SS’s duties relating to the atomic programme was able to inform the US of how Stalin had been able to get a jump-start on the atomic programme – with a little US know-how from the communist spies. This started a witch-hunt through the US programme, disrupting it, and breaking the links with Britain. While the scientists would still share some information, the British conducted their project separately from the Americans.

In early 1938, the Germans began to put pressure on the Austrians to reunite with Germany. The west was unwilling to support Austria, although Mussolini did offer support, and a large proportion of the Austrian people were in favour of union. While Italy blustered, Hitler talked to Mussolini in person and made a number of threats and promises, convincing Mussolini to allow the Anschluss to go ahead. However, this caused grave concern in Czechoslovakia. Soon, however, Hitler’s eyes were fixed on the Sudetenland and caused the crisis of 1938

Part Two: The Crisis of 1938 and its Aftermath: Hitler was demanding from Czechoslovakia a large amount of land that had once belonged to Germany before the First World War. This would have the effect of removing Czechoslovakia’s defences and making it easy for the Germans to overrun the rest of the country. The Czechs expected help from the west, but Hitler’s cunning use of the atomic weapon threat slowed down the western response. As the crisis mounted, thousands of Czechs and Frenchmen fled the borders, while the Germans largely stayed in place as German propaganda had convinced many that the allies were years away from a bomb. However, Prime Minister Chamberlain, of Britain, believed that Germany did indeed have a bomb and acted to convince the Czech’s to surrender the territory. The Czechs considered fighting, but their leaders saw the danger of atomic attack as too great and surrendered the land to Germany.

Meanwhile, the Soviet Communist spy rings and trade unions were very active. Stalin knew that the USSR, at least, was years away from a bomb and suspected that Hitler’s first bomb target would be the USSR. The soviet stooges in the west, therefore, pressured the governments to share their advances with the USSR, but none of the governments were interested. As the first nuke panic spread, the communists (and other working men’s parties) were very active in convincing the government to build nuclear shelters and increase the aerial defence of the nations. The governments were forced to obtain more fighters and increase production of their radar stations.

As 1939 dawned, the balance of power was very uncertain. Germany would be able to deploy a nuclear weapon by mid-1939, and then develop them at the rate on one every month or so, although once they had the art worked out, they could then increase the production rate and start mass production by 1942. Britain was next in line and would be able to deploy a bomb by 1940, with America close behind. Japan and France planned to have bombs ready by 1941 and Italy believed that, with some German assistance, that their bomb would be ready by 1942. The USSR had lagged behind the west and Japan, and the earliest Stalin could expect a bomb would be 1946 – if they were very lucky.

Hitler was slightly unconvinced of the power of the atomic bomb; even through it had contributed to his bloodless victory over Czechoslovakia and the west. However, as long as he had the power, he was willing to use it. He was, however, uncertain which nation should be his next target. Poland would allow him to finish the job of clearing away the hated Versailles treaty, but it would also bring him into direct contact with the USSR, whose leader suspected that he would be the next target, with atomic weapons. That meant that a move into Poland would almost certainly be followed in short order by a war with the USSR, with the west being able to jump either way. A move west, towards France, would be simpler, but it would mean war with France (whose army was feared - albeit unjustly – by the German high command) and possibly with Britain. Hitler therefore started negoations with Poland.

Hitler’s offer to Poland was simple; if the Poles guarded his back, Hitler would renounce all claims to the Polish Corridor. The Poles did not trust Hitler, but knew that Stalin was just as untrustworthy. Therefore, they reluctantly agreed. Hitler then started a build-up in the Rhineland and formally renounced the last parts of the Treaty of Versailles. This caused a panic amongst the French, although they had been expecting it for years.

Hitler then opens talks with Belgium. His ambassadors point out that the French or British are unable to protect them from a nuclear attack, while their nation can be completely devastated by Germany. However, he promises, if Belgium lets his forces through into France, Hitler will let them keep their independence. The Belgium king is not a fool and he knows how untrustworthy Hitler is, but he appears to have no other choice. Therefore, he agrees to allow the German forces transit through Belgium.

Hitler then presents what he calls his final set of demands to the French. He demands the return of Alsace-Lorraine and repayment of the money extorted from Germany after the last war. If not, Hitler threatens a limited war to recover that territory – including the use of nuclear weapons. The French decide to call what they think is Hitler’s bluff.

Sadly for them, this time Hitler’s not bluffing. German forces begin a limited attack on the Magnoit Line, drawing French forces towards the line, and then two things happen. German Panzers surge through Belgium and head for Paris in a replay of the 1914 campaign – and a nuclear bomb is dropped by Germany’s new long-range bomber on the Magniot line. France sees the blast shatter a large percentage of the French army and morale shatters across the French nation. They sue for peace, returning Alsace-Lorraine and agreeing to repay the monies. However, Italy also enters the war and the French are forced to surrender Corsica and a small area of eastern France to them.

The British are seriously worried by the atomic attack. The population of the British cities on the east coast tries to flee to the country, swamping any attempt at a controlled evaluation. The British Government makes massive efforts to complete its own bomb, helped by the fleeing French scientists, and rapidly develops its anti-aircraft defences. The British bomb is finally completed, but the British are concerned about their delivery bombers, which are not particularly fast. Ironically, the Italians have been trading radar gear to the Germans in exchange for atomic secrets.

Part Three: The Final War: The defeat and effective subjection of France severely shook the global balance of power. A large number of people had been unconvinced of the power and/or practicability of an atomic bomb – until a large part of France’s military was destroyed. Furthermore, the use of the bomb seemed to confirm Germany’s new position as the premiere power in Europe. The smaller powers of Europe, including Denmark, Romania, Hungary and Turkey, all started attempting to get closer to Germany, and climbing on the bandwagon. Finland attempted to maintain a neutral stance, but the growing threat from the USSR convinced it to slowly slip into Germany’s orbit.

Both the Italians and the Spanish reaffirmed their alliance with Germany. Both powers saw themselves as ‘great’ and the Italians, at least, did have an atomic program of their own. Hitler was now greatly enamoured of the bomb’s power and was less keen on having allies, unless they toed the German line. Soon, German officers were on loan to the two powers, improving their military and melding them into the German bloc. Hitler wanted the two powers to be able to keep Britain busy if war broke out in the east.

Japan and the USSR had been fighting a border war in Manchuria since 1939, although neither side had been able to get a decisive advantage. The Soviets were reluctant to commit too much of their forces, including the latest model of tanks, to the border, and the Japanese did not have the tank power to defeat the soviets in that area. The Japanese navy had managed to take Vladivostok in the winter of 1939, but a Soviet counter attack had driven them back into the sea and discouraged the Japanese from trying that again. However, the Soviet Pacific Fleet had been destroyed and the Red Air Force in the region nearly wiped out.

Hitler was keen to have the Japanese on his side for the war he saw coming with the USSR. The Japanese, however, were more interested in a war with the west, as their war with the USSR was turning into an expensive stalemate. Therefore, they requested that Hitler send several of Kriegfurher’s students to Japan to help them finish their own nuclear bomb. Hitler duly agreed, although he wanted Japanese technical help with the German aircraft carrier program, the Graf Zeppelin, which had been having problems. The two sides soon developed a formal alliance, forming the Quadruplet Axis, with Italy and Spain.

Britain was deeply concerned by the end of the brief Franco-German war. The British bomb was now ready, but the devastation caused by the German weapon surgested that the Germans could use the bomb to clear a landing space, than invade. Even if the Germans were only planning to nuke Britain without a landing, the destruction could spell the end of Britain as a great power. As one highly classified report to the PM put it:

“The result of several nuclear strikes on Britain would be the effective collapse of law and order across the nation, the disintegration of the Local Authorities (and regional commissioners), the almost complete disruption of the military forces and the effective anileation of the government.”

The fall of France also caused a several shift in the British government. After much ado, Chamberlain was removed from office and Britain was leaderless for a week while the politicians argued over who should be the next PM. Eventually, Eden was sworn in as the next PM of Britain. He boosted the air defences of Britain and dispersed the land forces across the nation – although a sizable force was sent to Egypt and Iraq to counter Italian provocations and pro-German uprisings.

Hitler began planning to take the war to the USSR. He started to discuss the possibility of an alliance with the Poles, who were by now thoroughly cowed by the nuclear demon. They would be more than willing to assist Germany in any division of the USSR. The Turks were also interested, but decided to see how the war would turn out before committing themselves.

For Britain, a nightmare had come true. A single power now dominated the European continent and the British had no allies to aid them. America was still isoleanist and unwilling to send troops to Britain. Therefore. The British reluctantly made an agreement with Stalin, if Russia was attacked, the British would sell them supplies and if Russia was nuked, Britain would nuke Germany. Stalin also wanted nuclear technology, but the British were understandably reluctant to give him that.

The build-up to the Final war had one last element. The Germans, having forced co-operation out of the Belgium’s on one occasion, now demanded that they handed over the Congo to Germany. The Congo held large uranium deposits and the Germans were running short of their supplies. The British, however, were well aware of the deposits and refused to allow the Congo to be sold to Germany. The Germans prepared their forces for a nuclear strike on Britain, but Hitler decided not to waste one of the precious bombs, particularly since the British had invaded the Congo and occupied it. However, the nuclear threat saw thousands of British people fleeing to Africa, Canada and Australia. That decision to allow that would later haunt Britain.

The war began with German forces attacking from Poland into Byelorussia in mid-1941. The soviet forces were prepared for the offensive, but unprepared for the force and tactics of the attack, and were pushed backwards. Furthermore, the German forces had dropped their second nuke, on Moscow. Britain hesitated, but the deal with Stalin remained. Worse, there were signs that with Stalin’s death, the USSR was disintegrating and soon Germany would be able to take whatever land it wanted. Therefore, Britain declared war and nuked Hamburg. Hitler ordered retaliation, but the Luffwaffe was met by well-organised and controlled RAF planes, out of six targets, the Luffwaffe lost four planes outright, managed to nuke Newcastle and accidentally managed to nuke Dover. The British counterstrike destroyed several more German cities.

The war might have gone on, except for the fact that the German military overthrew Hitler when it became clear that the British would destroy Germany before Britain could be destroyed. Germany then sued for peace with Britain, as the Poles and French had taken the opportunity to revolt against German control. The Germans agreed to withdraw from much of the occupied territories and hand the captured French fleet over to Britain. Germany then spent time restoring the empire, although British pressure led to a nominally independent Poland and Russian states.

Part Four: Aftermath: The final stage of the war was not fought in Europe, but in the pacific. The Americans had been putting huge pressure upon Japan to stop fighting Russia (which had practically dissolved by this time) and abandon their atomic weapons program. The proud Japanese could not agree to this and attacked American territories, including pearl harbour, with both conventional and nuclear weapons. The complete destruction of much of the US fleet in the war of 1942 led to a stalemate, which was broken the following year by a US submarine offensive. The Japanese therefore sued for peace thorough British agencies, but the Americans demanded unconditional surrender, proving their determination with a nuclear strike on the Truk Fleet Base in early 1943. Japan, however, threatened to use nuclear weapons against American cities if the war did not come to a honourable end and therefore President Dewey’s peace had Japan merely return the seized American territories and withdraw from lower China.

The German Empire, now under military control, remained the most powerful state in Europe. France, which was forced to endure strict limits on their military sizes, was drained by a war in her African territories, which were lost by 1950. A German offer to nuke an Algerian city was polity refused. The winds of change led to Italy’s colonies also being threatened, but repressive measures and Italy’s entry into the nuclear club (1949), allowed them to maintain their grip.

The British Empire in the Far East metamorphosed into the British Commonwealth. The threat from Japan was still there and neither India nor Australia could muster nuclear weapons, therefore they agreed to a united imperial defence force for the Empire – which became a multiracial force. The commonwealth would have many disagreements, but the trade and finance deals would keep it afloat. In Africa, however, the spread of South African power meant that South Africa might leave the commonwealth, scared of losing control to the ‘browns’ of India.

As the world falls into 1960, the powers are experimenting with more rockets and space flight. Germany was the first power to develop an ICBM and the first to put a man in space. Britain and the commonwealth soon followed, as did America, but constant war crises may well cause the next ‘final war’ to break out – and when it does, there will never be another one, until the cockroaches evolve enough to build nukes…….

Author’s notes: At least one of the Nazis problems, perhaps the main problem, with the bomb was the belief that it was ‘Jewish’ science. Here, they have a top-class Aryan genius heading the program and making the first German breakthroughs. Therefore, someone like Hitler can say that the Jews merely built on German work. Furthermore, abstract research, even in the cash-strapped Germany, won’t cost much and probably won’t been seen as threatening.

In OTL, the west (Britain and France) believed that they were facing, in 1936, an army composed of one million men, several hundred modern aircraft and a number of modern ships. They had, they believed, one unprepared and under-equipped French army (plus one or two divisions from Britain) with lacklustre leadership, two air forces equipped with primitive aircraft and a large combined fleet that was composed, largely, of out-of-date ships and, in the case of the British, had global responsibilities. There was also the distant possibility of Italy, Japan and the Soviet Union joining any war against them, which would have turned the war into a world war and crippled both powers. We, of course, with the benefit of hindsight, know that Hitler’s position was largely bluff, that Mussolini was completely unprepared for a modern war, that Japan was too engrossed with China and Russia, and that the USSR had external problems.

In ATL, the west would believe that they were facing the impossibly well-equipped German forces described above – and the distinct possibility of nuclear bombs in the very near future. If their perception of modern warfare was accurate, they could look forward to a few years of trench warfare, which would be ended by a replay of the battle of Cambri, but with the Germans using nuclear bombs to clear the way. The French would be terrified, without the French, the British can do nothing, they won’t declare war, so they’ll expand their own nuclear programs and hope for the best. Therefore, I can’t see the west acting to crush Germany in 1936, even if they think that they do have a bomb, because they bought into the myth of German superiority in OTL and here it will be even worse. A treaty on bomb limits is possible, but I can’t see Hitler sticking with it.

Poland served as a barrier between a weak German and the strongest military in the world. If there’s no agreement with Stalin, Hitler may well be unwilling to knock down that barrier. Furthermore, the Poles might be willing to guard Hitler’s back if it stops him claiming the ‘polish corridor’. Historically, they did even stupider things such as allowing their only real ally to be taken to bits in exchange for a border town.

Italian science was a very mixed bag. They had the best radars until 1943, but burocratic problems prevented its use, which alone would have improved Italian performance. Some of the best nuclear scientists were Italian and helped build the bomb – just in America. Spain won’t be able to have a nuclear program at all for some time. There are very mixed opinions about how far the Japanese were from a bomb in 1945. Some sources suggest that they were nearly ready to try to build one, while other say that they never even started. Hitler sent a u-boat with nuclear materials to Japan in 1945, which surrendered after VE-Day, so the Germans believed that the Japanese had a chance at success.

Appendix: Nuclear Weapon ‘firsts’

1945 – USA atomic explosion, destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

1949 – USSR tests its first bomb

1952 – UK tests its first bomb, collaborative project with Australia

1955 – First H-Bomb in service (USA)

1959 – First USSR ICBM (SS-6)

1960 – France tests its first bomb

1960 – First American ICBMs

1960 – first SSBNs deployed by USA and USSR

1964 – China tests its first bomb

Source: The Cold War: A Military History (David Miller)