Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

What was the most important battle of the twentieth century? Stalingrad? Midway? Marne? What about the battle of Warsaw? It may well have prevented a communist takeover of Europe and perhaps the world. My next escape from the Gang of Four involves the aftermath of World War One, when a shattered Europe discovers that the enemy within is more deadly with help from outside.

As the Russian civil war started to die out, a number of Russian Bolsheviks wanted to recapture Poland and other lands lost as a result of Russia's defeat by Germany in WWI. That the Bolsheviks had surrendered those lands to Germany was seen as no account when Germany was defeated. It is believed that the expansionist faction wanted to expand the Bolshevik empire beyond the former Russian boundaries, using the Red Army as a tool to accomplish a wider Revolution. Germany and France were War weary and were experiencing problems such as un-employment and general economic disruption. Lenin already had political agitators in those countries, but in order for his Revolution to succeed, they would need the presence of a military force, the Red Army. It became apparent that Lenin was beginning to win the Civil War in Russia and would soon be able to free up the Red Army for use in Europe. In a pre-emptive strike intended to stop the Bolsheviks, Jozef Pilsudski, the commander of Polish Forces, attacked the Bolsheviks in February 1919. Pilsudski was hoping that the White and Red forces in Russia would weaken each other to the point that neither were a threat. Pilsudski also hoped that other countries would form a defensive alliance with Poland against Russia (Red or White). The alliance never materialized. The War expanded and reached a critical moment in August, 1920, at the Battle of Warsaw, when the fate of Europe was decided.

Until the spring of 1920, Poland was pushing or at least holding the Bolsheviks back. By the summer of 1920 however, the Bolsheviks began to gain strength as they were winning their civil war in Russia. By the summer of 1920, the Bolsheviks were advancing into Poland. It looked as if Poland would be totally defeated. Fearing a total Bolshevik victory, the Western Allies (most notably France) begged Pilsudski to accept peace with Lenin, thereby granting Russia much territory (the Curzon Line). Pilsudski refused, and the Red Army approached Warsaw by August. Peace overtures made by Lenin were not sincere as Lenin felt that he had already won the war and would soon be able to continue the Bolshevik Revolution westward.

The poles got lucky. Red Army commanders made a tactical error when a large part of their force diverted north of Warsaw in order to cut Polish supply lines from the Baltic Sea. Pilsudski had set a trap and sprung it, taking full advantage of the Russian error. The result was the diverted Red Army force itself became cut off from their supply line, and the remaining Red Army force was decimated. General Wladyslaw Sikorski commanded a force (including some French tanks) that defended the city of Warsaw. This turn in the tide was regarded by many as a miracle, and became known as the "Miracle on the Wistula". So badly defeated was the Red Army, that it began a general retreat on all fronts. The Polish forces pursued the retreating Red Army, defeating them again at the Niemen River in September. Sikorski had chased the Red army with some armour, showing that tanks could play a role in rapid advances on the battlefield. On October 12, 1920, an Armistice was signed, ending the fighting.

Now, what if that mistake had not been made and Warsaw had fallen? Pilsudski was supposed to have had a plan to turn the government over to the polish communists if the war had been lost. If communists had gained control of Poland – which, deliberately or no, would have allowed the Russians control of the nation – they would be impossible for the war weary western allies to dislodge.

The effects on soviet politics would be remarkable. There are really two factions in the early USSR, the ‘export world revolution’ faction and the ‘socialism in one country’ faction. The defeat in OTL pushed power into the hands of the ‘socialism in one country’ faction and eventually into Stalin’s hands. Lenin was known to waver between the two groups, in OTL he supported the ‘socialism in one country’, in ATL, he supports the other faction. The policy of the USSR is about to become a whole lot more aggressive.

As a side note, if soviet Russia did stop here, nazi Germany would both find it easier and harder to act. Easier, because the entire continent would be terrified of the Red Empire and would support the Germans to the hilt. Play with this enough and you might take away the need for the Nazis completely. Harder, because the Russians would be unlikely to allow German rearmouring, they would interfere almost at once, a war that Germany could not win. Still, that is perhaps the most unlikely outcome.

What is more likely to happen is communist uprisings in Germany and Czechoslovakia. Czechoslovakia did have a communist government that fell due to western interference and a few mistakes. In this timeline, it is unlikely that those mistakes would happen. With direct support from the red army, I could see the communists in German winning after a bitter civil war. Adolf Hitler as freedom fighter? He would be killed if they hold a purge of any political rivals and all Germany’s potential would become part of the USSR.

I can’t see a communist government of Germany agreeing to pay reparations to the allies, but its unlikely to matter as revolution is bound to spread to France. The French had communist trouble in OTL, here, it will be far worse. Civil war in France is not unlikely, with Russian support and arms from Germany or Czechoslovakia we can predict a French defeat and subsequent integration into the communist system.

Britain is a harder case. While there was a communist underground, it was never very powerful and suffered from official hatred, here, not much of that will have changed, even in the event of the soviets winning in France. There is likely to be a sharp decline in personal freedom as officials stamp on communist dominated organisations like trade unions, some newspapers and women’s rights groups. ‘Peace’ organisations will be persecuted as well. Britain will probably enjoy support from some parts of the empire, but the Indian communist party will attempt to oppose it. I could see a mini civil war breaking out in India and some other parts of the empire.

Once that was over, I suspect that the British (and the Americans if they last that long, I’ll deal with them next) will attack French colonies in a similar style to the French revolutionary wars and use them to house refugees from France and Germany. One of those fugitives is likely to be the ex-Kaiser of Germany, who the soviets would love to have shot, and the other European monarchs and their relatives. The British would shore up the Turks as much as possibly and renew their alliance with Japan under the guise of stamping on Chinese communism.

America is the hardest place to predict the impact on. While there was an American communist party, the British blockade would prevent any arms being shipped, but serious trouble would be bound to happen anyway. I suspect that a communist revolt would be unsuccessful, but America going into some form of fascism (like Dark America? Probably not that extreme) with a peculiarly American twist. I suspect that America would have to act to heal the wounds in its society, such as integrating blacks more firmly, before the cracks burst open. Cities such as New York would be devastated if fighting broke out.

How would the expanded USSR cope? A great deal depends on the Polish, German and French reaction. The poles are very good at being poles first and worrying about ideology later, and in this timeline Pilsudski left the communists running the country, however, they have a serious problem looming; Stalin

By 1925, I suspect a full-scale cold war would be being waged, with the USSR (with all of Europe aside from Britain, Norway and Sweden) versus the British Empire and Japan. Small-scale military actions would happen every month in Iran, Iraq, Siberia and China as communist forces and infiltrators clash with British and Japanese forces. I suspect that the Japanese would be pushed out of Siberia by 1926, despite British support. Small wars would continue for a long time. Lenin would probably die on schedule and Stalin would take over.

Stalin first rose to power in 1922 as secretary general of the Communist Party. Using administrative skills and ruthless manoeuvring, Stalin rid himself of all potential rivals in the party, first by having many of them condemned as "deviationists," and later by ordering them executed. In OTL he was bad enough, in this TL, he’ll be worse. He started a military build-up in OTL by squeezing the soviet peasants and others to build up the army. He, with more people in the soviet army, could squeeze everywhere.

I suspect that a revolt against Stalin might well have happened in OTL if he had slipped just a little bit. In ATL, the revolt might happen in Germany and France and be ruthlessly stamped on as hard as possible. The European economies could be forced into the soviet pattern, with good effects at first and later disastrous effects. I could see Britain sponsoring revolts and aiding the freedom fighters, but I can’t see them throwing off the soviet yoke.

By 1935, assuming events lasted that long, Stalin might be considering military action to expand his empire. Forced labour would have developed a railway system all over the USSR and technology would have advanced along. They’ll have also tried to build a naval fleet, which will be more powerful than in OTL, but I suspect that they will have great difficulties concentrating it. Tanks and other weapons will also have been developed.

Would the soviet fleet be a match for the British? I don’t think so, but the threat of it might force the British to spend too much on their navy and go bankrupt. Air power may not be as important in this TL (at least until the soviet government realizes how useful it is in manoeuvres) but tanks and similar equipment will be more developed.

In 1940, Stalin sends the red army against Japan in Manchuria and Britain in Iran, aided by uprisings in India, Iran and Iraq. And that’s as far as I dare take this one.

Christopher G. Nuttall

Red Europe