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Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM |
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This Day in Alternate History Blog
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Two Empires Stillborn
Some long time ago, there was
a challenge to see what might delay or avert World War 2, starting after the
First World War. Remembering that
Stalin and Hitler had helped each other out, I wondered what it might take to
remove the Soviet Union from the European game board.
This is my conclusion. Just how important the deal
between Weiner Germany and the USSR was is debatable, but the Weiner Republic
did lay a great deal of military groundwork for Hitler to use when building the
Wermechart. Take that away or diminish it, and Hitler will need several more
years to construct an army. Contents:
Background The Story: 1919 – 1930 The Story: 1930 – 1940 German Technological Development The Shifting British Empire Other Countries Flashpoints? Background
In 1918-1921, the Russian Civil
war was fought between the Bolsheviks and the Whites, effectively, the communist
forces and the remains of the tsarist forces, which was eventually won by the
Bolsheviks. It was a time of
unparallel human suffering, when food, water, and the other essentials of life
were in short supply and often commaderred by one side or the other.
Disease and deprivation stalked the land; indeed, it made the Sudan
famine, the Bangladesh cyclone disaster and the Pol Pot regime seem like a minor
inconvenience. The acknowledged
death toll was over 12.5 million people; the real toll may well be twice that. It was also the genesis of the
soviet state. The great actors in
that drama sprang to life here, Stalin, Lenin, Trotsky, and many others took
their place in history, many, like the Romanov’s, died in this period.
Their legends live on. At the risk of vastly simplifying
the issue, there were three sides to Russian society before the revolution, The
cities, where most people had come to work, the peasant farms, the source of the
food and constantly rebellious, and the infrastructure, the railways, army, navy
and so forth. The cities were
dependent on the farms for food – food riots were the worst fear of the
tsarist forces – and therefore they tried to use the army to force the
peasants to hand over their food at fixed prices or at no price at all, save
their continued existence. All of this took place in the
midst of the worst winter in human history.
The balance of survival in the cities and the army was very fragile.
They could not keep going without food, but they had very little to trade
for the food and therefore relied on the Bolshevik army to force the peasant s
to supply food. Thousands of people
deserted the cities for the farms, some were welcome, and most were not.
There was nothing ordained about the Bolshevik victory. The Story: 1919 - 1930
Now lets start changing the times
(heh heh). If the winter of 1919
had been a little worse, and consequently food shorter, the people in the cities
would have found it almost impossible to survive.
The Bolsheviks, of that time, were not the uncaring people they became
later, and anyway were well aware of the fragile nature of their power.
The army, which was short itself, was ordered to force the peasant s to
supply more food. For the poor
peasants, this was a lose-lose solution, if they did send the food, they would
have nothing to plant next year, while if they rebelled, they might be killed or
enslaved. Faced with such a choice,
the peasants decide to revolt. The peasants are not just the
simple folk they are often portrayed as. They
have among their number soldiers who deserted their trenches and went home, and
some of them have an understanding of the need to spread the rebellion as far as
possible. They organise peasant
bands to destroy railway lines, capture ammunition and generally wage a
guerrilla war on the Bolshevik forces. They
can’t hold out for long though, but they don’t have to; soon, the
Bolsheviks, and – just incidentally – the people in the cities, will run out
of food and starve. The White
forces, dependent upon the Cossacks, are pushed to one side by them and
eventually completely suppressed by them. Their
pitiful arms are added to the Cossack supplies.
Many of the Whites are butchered by peasants that have long established
grudges to settle. In the cities, a human disaster is
taking place. The food is so short
that the senior Bolsheviks attempt to keep it for themselves and their soldiers.
However, there is barely enough for them, and the soldiers get mutinous.
As the cities explode with riots, the soldiers desert the Bolshevik cause
en masse. Lenin, Stalin,
Trotsky and the others are killed in the riots as staving crowds storm the
governmental buildings. Large parts
of the cities are reduced to rubble and the people starve.
It is impossible to imagine the death tool, which must have run into the
millions, but the effect on Russia was all too clear.
Those who could flee to the allied attempts to assist the whites, now
futile, as the Whites no longer exist, and other leave what remains of the
cities to the farms. There is a
small remment, which trades limited manufactured goods for food, but there is no
longer any central authority. The Allied forces pack up and
leave, with the exception of Japan, which lays claim to Vladivostok, Nomohan,
Mongolia and Siberia. The west is
not happy, but there is very little that they can do, attempts to impose an oil
embargo are defeated by the discovery of oil and gas in Siberia.
Britain is relieved by the events, as this means that they can stop
worrying about the North West frontier of India, and they won’t have to play
another Great Game. Most other
western powers are delighted, as communist parties have been dealt a body blow,
and capitalist propaganda now points to the failure of socialism.
Adolf Hitler finds getting to power a little easier in this timeline,
although the events that allowed him to come to power still happen at roughly
the same time. Japan, on the other
hand, will be more peaceful, less inclined to meddle in China, and severely
overstretched. If she has
time to develop the natural Siberian resources, she will become far more
powerful in the long term. As the central authority
collapses, nationalist forces in the Russia republics raise their heads.
While the Tsars crushed a great deal of nationalist sentiment, much of it
is still there, just hidden. New
nations gradually appear, the Ukraine, Byelorussia, Finland and the Baltic
states all become independent. Some
of them attempt to take over bits of Russia, but discover that the current state
is unforgiving to hostile intruders. With the effective destruction of
the cities, Russia slowly becomes a vast area with no central authority, made up
of independent villages and small towns, eking out a primitive existence.
One thing they all share, however, is a determination to prevent any new
central authority from enslaving them again.
(Think Massachusetts just before the American Revolution or Vietnam and
you’ll see the difficulties involved.) They’re
armed, determined, and have a local knowledge that invaders can’t match.
Therefore, Byelorussia and the Ukraine have similar boundaries to theirs
today in OTL. Poland may be
slightly different, as her borders in OTL had a large number of ethnic
Ukrainians and they wanted independence from her.
With a Ukrainian state at the borders (or nearby depending on how things
have sorted themselves out), things could get really nasty.
(Think the Indian-Pakistan border just after independence, the people
desperately trying to reach their religious ‘promised land’ and falling pray
to bandits, rival sides, or the people already occupying ‘their’ promised
land.) In Central Asia and the Far East,
the Muslim countries that were crushed by the tsars start to re-assert their
independence, and start a series of bloody conflicts between different religious
factions that the tsars had kept a lid on.
These conflicts threaten to spread into Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and
India. The British have to send
small forces into the region to attempt to prevent the conflicts from spreading.
This is a constant drain on the British forces and threatens a conflict
with Japan. At this point, around 1925-1926,
in OTL, the Germans begin clasidine rearmament by using the vast territories of
the Soviet Union to test prototypes. In this timeline, the Soviet Union does not
exist and the smaller states are far more concerned about Germany. It is one of the First World Wars
little ironies that the Germans actually got further into Russia, and obtained a
peace treaty ceding them their ill-gotten gains, than they did in the Second
World War. The Bolsheviks were
bailed out by the western allies being ‘inconsiderate’ enough to defeat
Germany in the west and then stripping them of their gains, their army and much
of their self-respect in the treaty of Versailles.
Whatever independence the new countries had was taken by the soviets
after or during the civil war. In
this timeline, however, the countries are still free and deeply suspicious of
Germany. German rearmament would
almost certainly lead to the end of their existence as independent nations,
anyone who reads Mein Kampf could be very sure of that.
Therefore, when the German approach one or all of those nations, their
offer, technology transfer for space to test new prototypes, the nations refuse. This means that the German
rearmament program has just hit a speed bump and been slowed down a great deal.
When Hitler comes to power, he has to cast around for a new ally, but no
one is willing or able to serve as a cat’s paw.
Turkey expresses cautious interest, but is unwilling to help much. Meanwhile, in 1927, the nations of
Poland, Byelorussia, Ukraine, Finland and Czechoslovakia have realised that
there is a serious threat to their existence.
While they don’t always get along well, the rulers are men who have
experienced German occupation and have no desire to undergo it again.
Therefore they begin a military build-up and begin building a formal
alliance. When Hitler comes to
power, in 1933, their efforts are jumpstarted.
The Alliance (I’ll just call it that for the time being) becomes a
formal arrangement and starts a combined military build-up.
The T-34 tank was designed in the USSR in 1939 in OTL.
Unless the design team lived in Byelorussia or the Ukraine, the tank, the
best in the war, would probably not exist.
However, the Czechs had a whole series of good tank designs by the time
the Germans took over and those could be used by the alliance. Finland, meanwhile, would prefer
to remain outside of an east European alliance and therefore turns to its
Scandinavian sisters, Sweden and Norway. The
three of them form a neutral block, loosely called the Nordic Pact, which
remains outside the global power struggle.
Hitler, as racist as ever, decides that they are ‘good’ people, and
decides to leave them alone. Denmark
is still on his hit list, but its been downgraded to a minor nuisance and
therefore won’t be touched until the war is essentially won. 1930 – 1940 The Germans started openly
rearming in 1935 in OTL and remilitarised the Rhineland in 1936.
In this timeline, their rearmament has been slowed down because of the
lack of space and all they have are designs.
When the alliance is formed (1933), they’ve lost nine years when they
were secretly building and testing tanks. If
we assume that openly it only takes about a third of the time, then by 1938
they’ll be loosely at the 1933 level in OTL, by which time the alliance has
probably out built them. In 1936 (OTL), Hitler attempts to
remilitarise the Rhineland.
In OTL, this was a terrific gamble, using planes franticly buzzing about
to trick the French into believing that they had huge forces, in this timeline,
they are hardly in a position to try to pull such a bluff.
If France responses with force, the Germans will lose, and if the
alliance joins in (which it probably will), they will be destroyed.
Hitler knows that the odds are too heavily stacked against the Germans
(he’s a gambler with some common sense at this point) and therefore does not
attempt the remillitarision. The
alliance and the French begin alliance (pun not intended) talks, but the
arrogant French attitude annoys the alliance and so relations are strained. At the same time, Mussolini
attempts an invasion of Ethiopia. The
League of Nations attempts to penalise Italy with economic sanctions.
With British and French co-operation, the blockade is enforced and Italy
is forced to withdraw. (Note: In
OTL Mussolini admitted that an effective oil embargo would have forced him to
withdraw within a week). The
League of Nations gains an extra lease of life.
Mussolini’s prestige is sadly dented. The civil war in Spain is averted
because of the lack of a strong communist party.
The country is very unstable, but open war has been averted for the
moment. The Germans can’t build up like
they did in OTL, because there are no small countries for them to occupy and
they know that if they start a war, they will be squashed.
Therefore, Hitler concentrates on building up Germany’s economic power
and selling equipment to pay for research costs.
Italy, Japan, China, Mexico and a whole number of small Balkan countries
all start buying tanks, aircraft and employing ‘advisors’ to help them
fight. The Japanese army was never
very good in OTL, in this timeline it has Panzer III and IVs, better doctrine
and some ‘volunteers’ to improve it. The
much larger territory controlled by Japan – without incurring much disapproval
– is improving its economy. Hitler
also has one other ace that he could put up his sleeve; a physicist called
Werner Heisenberg has a very interesting idea involving atomic power, a plane
and a war-winning device. Goring is
instructed to start building a real long-range bomber. Well, its now 1940, and World War
Two has been averted for now. While
it is not often realised that the OTL WW2 was really two wars that just happened
to share a few combatants, this timeline may well avert the Pacific side of the
war and seriously delay the European side.
This world has fascinating possibilities for stories.
Sooner or later, the slightly stronger China will collide with the
super-Japanese empire, and only one side will survive that.
Or what if China became strong enough to consider an invasion of India,
or the Japanese launch an overland invasion?
Of course, by 1943ish, Germany will have King Tiger style tanks
and if the alliance and the French haven’t kept up, that’s curtains for
them. Werner Von Braun would have
started building rockets and trying to talk Hitler into seeing how they can be
used for peaceful purposes. Hitler,
however, will see how they could be used to hit London, Paris and perhaps
Washington. In this timeline, Germany could
not afford to waste resources on exterminating the Jews and other undesirables,
but Hitler still would not want them around.
Most of them could be sent in the direction of the alliance (Poland),
which might create a refugee crisis like we get today.
Others could go to Palestine, which would help disrupt the British Empire
by creating more three-way strife between Jews, Arabs and British.
Some might go to America or Canada, where they might not be welcome.
The Germans will also be trying to build up influence in the Balkans,
Mussolini will be still dreaming of a new Roman Empire and the two dictators may
still become allies. What about the British and French
Empires in this timeline? The
British Empire was slowly heading towards collapse in OTL, which WW2
accelerated, but here they won’t have that shock.
One interesting possibility would be India becoming independent and then
the Japanese landing on top of it. The
Japanese would find it very cheap to format trouble in India, Indochina
(Vietnam), and Burma and the results would be well worth it, particularly if
they manage to cover up or avoid their own atrocities. Can the alliance stay in the
technological race? None of the
countries involved have much of a tech base to draw on.
They have to build up industries as well as weapons.
Their forces will hit a peak of efficiency, probably around 1941, and
then their forces will degrade, relative to Germany.
The really important question though: does the alliance know that?
They may not be able to build atomic bombs for quite some time, so if
they do discover the German atomic project, striking first will seem the logical
solution. Can the alliance stay together?
If the ‘clear and present danger’ continues, yes they will, on the
theory that its better to hang together than hang separately.
However, if Hitler makes some conciliatory moves and pretends to draw
down his forces, the alliance could fracture.
What about the atomic bombs?
If the Germans keep working on them, sooner or later the rest of Europe
will discover what they’re up to and launch crash programs to develop them
themselves. If the Germans get them
first, things could get really nasty, while if the alliance gets them, they may
launch a pre-emptive strike to secure peace. One final point; how long can
Hitler stay alive? Quite aside from
the ever-present chance of being killed in a power play by one of his followers,
he was supposed to have suffered from Parkinson’s disease.
How long can he remain Fuehrer, how long can he remain alive,
and how rational will he be towards the end?
The more irrational he becomes, the crazier his decisions will be.
What if he has children in this timeline?
Will Fuehrer become a hereditary title?
There is no evidence that Hitler ever planned to bring back from exile
Kaiser Wilhelm from Holland; did he ever consider forming a dynasty? German Technological
Development Throughout 1940 – 1943, the
Germans continue their arms development and their technological base expands
accordingly. Their technology is
the most advanced in Europe, perhaps the world. It is very hard to predict what
will be developed by Germany when there is urgency, but no war on, but we can
make a few informed guesses. By
1943, they will have the plans for King Tiger style tanks and will have built a
few to field test. However, they
won’t have started selling those and are keeping them in reserve for the
coming war. They will also have had
time to improve their blitzkrieg doctrine and work out some of the flaws in it.
In OTL, most of the German army was un-mechanised, despite that being
what won Hitler his wars. Here,
they might have realized the deadly flaw in that philopoa;y and devised plans to
cover it. Carefully, secretly, the
Germans are building up for war. During the Napoleonic wars,
Prussia had a cunning trick whereupon they, with a limited army, recruit people
for a few months, train them, and then let them go, but always on call.
This gave them a base of trained people to draw on when needed.
Here, the Germans do the same thing, slowly building up whole hidden
regiments so a whole army can be assembled quickly. In the air, Germany is testing out
new Jets and ideas. The Me-202 is
built and new weapons, such as a limited guided missile, are being deployed.
Same as the army, a whole secret staff is being assembled with no one any
the wiser. Under cover of testing a
new long-range passenger jet, a new bomber design is test flown.
By 1945, they may have primitive helicopters and cruse missiles like the
V-1. Werner Von Braun’s rockets are
also being built and tested. They are not very accurate, but they could hit a
city if they were very lucky. Hitler
presses for intercontinental range, but he is reluctant to sacrifice the secrecy
that would probably be blown if someone saw the rocket.
When war comes, the Germans will have about 350 rockets capable of
hitting Kiev, London or Paris. The atomic project is proceeding
nicely. The concept was originally
wrong (they thought they'd need to build a reactor and make it go
supercritical), but soon they realise their mistake and proceed along the
correct path. By 1945, Germany will
be ready to test a bomb. The Shifting British Empire
While Germany schemed and
prepared, and Japan absorbed her new positions, the British had been trying to
hold an empire together without the threat of war of the heavy blows that were
struck during the Second World War. There
were really two sources of trouble, India and the Middle East, specifically,
Palestine. The Indian nationalists had been
hankering for a greater say in India’s – and the Empire’s – affairs and
more control over their country. The
British are eventually forced to concede limited self-government to India in
exchange for promises of mutual defence and support, such as exists between
Canada, Australia and Britain. The Royal navy starts recruiting Indians and
India starts building ships. This
compromise does not abate the Hindu-Muslim conflict, but it does help keep a lid
on it for the moment. British
troops find themselves acting as peacekeepers in areas where the two religions
mingle. Palestine is a different story.
Constant Jewish immigration is provoking Arab resentment and conflicts
between them and the Jews keep erupting. Attempts
to bar the door to immigrants have largely failed due to US pressure and other
problems. Some of the Jews are
shipped to the east Indies and parts of Africa, but such measures are only a
temporary solution. Other Countries
France:
France is less powerful in ATL 1945 than in OTL.
She has a large army, but she has done little to correct the definencies
that are ever present. Italy: Italy is far better of than
in OTL. Her army is better and
equipped properly for modern warfare. Unfortunately,
she’s still being led by Mussolini. Flashpoints? So, having set the scene, what could provoke a war?
What do you think?
Should I continue this? Chris |
