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What if the Spanish Civil War Lasted Longer?

Inspired by the Alternate History in the last issue, Spain Without Franco, I wondered what it might take to keep the war going a few months longer, so that it would still be going on when WW2 broke out in Sept. 1939. 

Let’s allow events to continue as OTL until the battle of Madrid.  This was the first real chance for a Nationalist (i.e. Franco) victory.  Madrid housed most of the government, the republican power base and many factories.  A Franco victory there would probably have led to the end of the war in short order.  During a bloody battle, the USSR sent modern supplies, tanks and aircraft, which allowed the republicans to beat back the nationalists.  The war therefore lasted two more years and ended shortly before WW2 with the defeat of the Republicans.

Let’s consider the possibility of outside, allied, meddling.  The western allies, France and Britain, have an interest in the conflict not ever being resolved.  A republican victory might, as John figures, result in the Soviet Union developing a power base in the western Mediterranean.  A Nationalist victory would give the fascist powers an extra ally who was in a position to threaten the British base at Gibraltar.  In OTL, they decided that the fascists were the lesser of two evils, a gamble that paid off, partly, when Franco stayed neutral in the conflict. 

However, it is indeed a pity that both sides can’t lose, from the western point of view.  Therefore, lets have the British and French decide on imposing an effective blockade on Spain after the Battle of Madrid.  There is no doubt that the British navy could crush the Spanish navies and sink supply ships, while the French could seal the borders between Italy and Germany.  Submarines can bring in a trickle of supplies, but, for most purposes, the two sides are on their own. 

This would probably force a reduction in military activity in Spain.  Franco was very cautious as a general – note his reluctance to get involved in WW2 without supplies from Germany – and would attempt to avoid wasting his supplies and weapons.  The republicans have problems integrating the international brigades into their forces, as well as a growing communist attempt to take control of the war effort, and would probably welcome an unofficial truce.  They hold most of the factories so a long delay, all other things being equal, works in their favour. 

The next two years see sporadic fighting along the front and considerable development work being done on each sides territory.  The republicans work to complete the social revolution, while the nationalists work to suppress the peasants and tighten Franco’s control.  Franco may be challenged for control of the war by one of the other generals, but I suspect that he would be able to overcome them.

However, outside events can have a serious influence.  In 1939, Hitler finally moves against Poland and plunges the world into war – again.  However, there are some subtle differences; the German army is a little more powerful as they have not sent so much to Spain and the air force is a little less capable that OTL.  However, unless the Poles get a boost of their own, they will still lose. 

Therefore, the allies still sit on their collective butts until May 1940, when Hitler kicked down the door and invades France.  Swiftly, the allies are defeated and Hitler crushes the French, forcing a peace treaty on them, as in OTL. 

However, in this timeline, Hitler has unfinished business with the Spanish.  Instead of the Germany Army being allowed to rest and fix its problems, Hitler sends a large force into Spain to aid Franco.   The republicans are tougher than the French and more motivated: the war lasts several months and ends with a nationalist victory in December, with Hitler’s forces having attacked and taken Gibraltar.  However, the British have taken the Balearics and the Canaries, so Franco has some reason to regret his involvement with Hitler. 

What this means is that Hitler cannot launch Barbarossa in 1941, not can he send a force to Africa in time to save Libya.  He is in fact reluctant to engage in any fighting, although he presses the Vichy French to help the Italians out as much as possible.  The republican leaders have fled to the Balearics and form a government-in-exile, while some republican forces fight with the British in North Africa.

The war, however, stalemates in 1941.  With the British slowly getting stronger, while having defeated the Italians, Hitler is reluctant to turn his back on them while hitting Stalin.  Further, the German army is in no shape for a further campaign, while British-supported resistance movements have began to spring up in the occupied territories and much of Franco’s forces are tied up fighting gruellas in Spain.  Aid from the US allows the British to finish the job of clearing up Italy’s empire, while moving forces to the Far East and Iran.  With the increased British power in the Far East, Japan attempts to negotiate a solution to her problems other than war.  Churchill offers supplies from the British Empire in exchange for Japanese help in the war.  Japan declares war on Germany in 1941.

The addition of Japanese army and naval units does not give the allies a decisive advantage, but it does help out a bit, although the Japanese blot their copybook a bit by demanding the right to take Madagascar.  The Japanese navy does help the British take out the remains of the Italian navy – which places Italy completely under Germany’s power – and assist the British with a campaign against Sardina. 

The British then present an ultimation to Vichy France.  Accusing the Vichy regime of aiding the Germans, Britain demands that they disarm their colonies and place them under British supervision.  Naturally, the French refuse, but the British and Japanese cut the French colonies off from their homeland and invade them.  The last French colony falls in 1942 and the British allow de Gaulle to rule most of them as a puppet empire.  Japan, however, gets Indochina and effective control of the Dutch East Indies, as well as Madagascar. 

The war comes to an end in 1943.  The two sides can glower at each other, but they really can’t hurt each other much.  Germany cannot invade Britain, nor can they reach any part of the British Empire.  Britain can bomb and harass the German forces, but they cannot hand out mortal blows.  Both Britain and Japan are financially exhausted, while Germany has to keep one eye on Stalin, who is trying to see which side will pay him better for his assistance.  Britain reluctantly recognises the German conquests, while Germany recognises the loss of the Italian and French colonies to the allies. 

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