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Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM |
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This Day in Alternate History Blog
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Conservative Scotland
One of my teachers was into
politics and he mentioned something called the ‘doomsday plan’ that the
Conservatives had in the event of them winning the next general election, but
losing every seat in Scotland. This
is my take of what might have happened if…
Well, at least it’s not part of the Gang of Four. What Really Happened: The Conservatives were tipped to lose the 1997 general election – which they did – spectactuly. They lost hundreds of seats to labour and were reduced overnight to the status of a second-rate party. The rest is history. To show how dramatic this victory was, see this map: What might have happened:
In the run-up to the 1997 general election, a Conservative defeat was predicted
by almost everyone, but the facts of UK political life did not agree with that
view. For John Major to be
defeated, a single opposing party had to gain more seats than the conservatives,
not just more people being against them. To
illustrate that, observe this diagram:
As you can see, the
Conservatives have the largest vote, and therefore win the seat. Even though 70%
of people voted against them. In
Theory, it is possible for a seat to be won at 15%, depending on the number of
candidates, their relatives (who will vote for them even if no one else will)
and the intensity of political life there. What was certain
was that the Conservatives would be kicked out of Scotland.
The Poll Tax, ignorance of Scottish affairs (regarded as deliberate
malice) and many other matters had made Scotland sick of them.
Even John Major would have seen that if the Conservatives won, they would
have to govern a nation that traditionally regarded itself as separate from
England and a special case. Worse,
seeing that tradition demanded that the Scottish secretary be himself a Scot,
there would be no convenient Scottish MP to take on that burden. Therefore, in utmost secrecy,
the doomsday plan was laid. It
would have allowed for the creation of a Scottish parliament in Edinburgh in
such an eventuality. This
was a major departure from Conservative precedent. I rather doubt that the
Conservatives were worried about a full-scale revolt in Scotland, but civil
disobedience and other measures could have damaged the British ecomany,
perticuly if the dissatisfaction spread to parts of England.
Civil authority could dissolve over large parts of England, provoking the
worst crisis in history. Therefore, John Major, in his
third term of office, creates the Scottish parliament.
In the changed political climate, the Scottish Nationalist Party is
likely to take most of the seats. The SNP is based on a claim of independence for Scotland from the United Kingdom. They have one fatal flaw, and that is that they only contest seats within Scotland itself. Given that Scotland has around 70 seats in the HOC, and England has 400, this is not a directly possible situation. There are not enough other political parties for the 400 English seats to be spread around to allow the Scots a majority, always assuming, of course, that the SNP wins all 70 Scottish seats, an event that has never happened. As a side note, the Scottish
parliament in ATL may not have the power to tax.
That was granted by the referendum in OTL, but if Major just orders the
parliament created, it may not have that, voter-sanctioned – touch. Let’s suppose that the
Scottish parliament proposes a bill for independence.
The Westminster parliament is likely to be dumbstruck, they’ve seen no
possibility of this happening and they’ll blame it on Major.
The Scottish MPs will probably get most of the blame as well.
They, however, will back the Scots to the hilt as they’ve been isolated
in a Conservative dominated house. So, what happens now?
A referendum is a likely holding measure while they attempt to get back
on their feet. Declaring the
Scottish Parliament illegal would certainly lead to votes of no confidence.
We could expect major unrest in Scotland if they hesitated too long. As a side note, what would the
queen do? She is supposed to be
neutral in government affairs, but Scotland is partly anti-monarchist.
She may find herself reduced to queen of England. I’m not sure how far this
would go, but it would be interesting. If
anyone wants to write it up, please do. |
