New, daily updating edition

   Headlines  |  Alternate Histories  |  International Edition


Home Page

Announcements 

Alternate Histories

International Edition

List of Updates

Want to join?

Join Writer Development Section

Writer Development Member Section

Join Club ChangerS

Editorial

Chris Comments

Book Reviews

Blog

Letters To The Editor

FAQ

Links Page

Terms and Conditions

Resources

Donations

Alternate Histories

International Edition

Alison Brooks

Fiction

Essays

Other Stuff

Authors

If Baseball Integrated Early

Counter-Factual.Net

Today in Alternate History

This Day in Alternate History Blog



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Madding Crowd, Part 3:
The Egyptian Civil War
by Chris Oakley

Summary: In the first two chapters of this series we reviewed the circumstances that led to the outbreak of civil war in Egypt in 2011 and the early battles of that conflict. In this segment, we’ll look at the controversy that erupted in July of 2011 when evidence began to surface that the Mubarak regime had used chemical weapons against rebel troops.

******

By June of 2011, when Libyan ruler Muammar Khadafy was under siege by mutinous elements of his own army, Cairo looked less like a capital city than a World War I no-man’s-land. Copious use of rockets and bombs by both rebel and government forces had left at least half the city in ruins and to some of its surviving residents it seemed as though it was just a question of time before the rest of Cairo met a similar fate. On June 8th the Egyptian capital’s one remaining operational hospital fell victim to a devastating exchange of artillery fire between elements of the regular Egyptian army and Muslim Brotherhood guerrillas; dozens of patients and medical personnel were killed during the barrage. No sooner had the echoes from the last shell’s detonations faded out than a flood of condemnation was leveled at both sides by human rights groups appalled at the carnage the artillery clash had inflicted on civilians.

   As horrendous as the artillery incident was, however, it would pale in comparison to an event which happened just six weeks later in the town of Al Qababt. Hundreds of rebel troops, along with scores of civilians, died as a result of an attack by government forces deploying what the initial eyewitness accounts of the operation described as “gas” or “poison gas” in a series of artillery strikes against the rebel defenses. A deputy attaché posted to the Israeli embassy in Jordan at the time reported to his bosses in Tel Aviv that social media all over the Middle East were buzzing almost nonstop about the suspected gas attack.

    The Mubarak regime’s first response to accusations of chemical weapons use was to deny the Al Qababt incident had even happened. Despite a great deal evidence corroborating rebel accounts of government troops deploying such weapons at Al Qababt, Mubarak’s spokesmen insisted vehemently no such thing had ever taken place. But then a video surfaced on YouTube in which men wearing the uniform of the regular Egyptian army were clearly shown in the midst of loading an 81-mm mortar with what looked like shells equipped with chemical warheads. Confronted with evidence a chemical weapons strike had in fact taken place, Mubarak changed tacks and asserted the men shown in the YouTube clip were rebel soldiers dressed in stolen army fatigues in an attempt to discredit and embarrass his regime.

    That cover story would be blown to pieces within less than a day after Mubarak made the claim. A second YouTube video came to light showing three men loading what looked like crates of mortar shells onto a truck; one of those crates had been left open, showing two of the shells in that crate to have serial numbers matching those of two mortar rounds used during the Al Qababt chemical attack. As soon as this video came to light an Egyptian army lieutenant who had escaped to Turkey shortly after the attack stepped forward to confirm government forces had indeed deployed chemical weapons; he went on to say that further chemical strikes were planned, including at least one series of air strikes with sarin-equipped bombs on two insurgent strongholds near Cairo.

    Any hope the Mubarak regime might have had of containing the damage from the Al Qababt incident was effectively out the window after that. Not that Mubarak didn’t try; once it was established that Egyptian government troops had in fact used chemical weapons on rebel forces, the embattled president of Egypt trotted out a new alibi for the attack, insisting that his troops had only used chemical weapons because the Muslim Brotherhood had tried to use them first. This interesting claim, however good it might have sounded to Mubarak’s ears, was undermined by two small but important details: 1)no major intelligence services, including Mubarak’s own agency, had found even the slightest shred of evidence the Brotherhood possessed any chemical weapons; 2)the insurgent troops who had fought at Al Qababt belonged to a secular militia which had also clashed with the Brotherhood more than once.

    The new revelations about Al Qababt would further inflame already red- hot fury at the Mubarak government. Outside Egypt, massive demonstrations were held at Egyptian diplomatic offices throughout Europe, North America, and the Middle East; in Egypt itself young people flocked to volunteer for the rebel forces with grim determination to see Mubarak either driven into exile or hanging from a lamppost in Tahrir Square. Even some people within the political establishment who had previously supported Mubarak were now beginning to reverse their stances and call for him to step down for a new leader before the civil war destroyed the country altogether.

    But Mubarak simply refused to budge. He had vowed from the beginning to crush the insurgency at all costs, even if those costs included his own life, and to that end he directed the Egyptian air force to speed up their timetable for carrying out the next wave of air strikes on rebel positions in and around Cairo. Realizing such action would not only further increase the already appallingly high civilian death toll that had been incurred to date in the civil war but also put their pilots at unnecessary risk, many of the Egyptian air force’s squadron commanders refused to comply with the Mubarak directive. An enraged Mubarak retaliated by having the dissidents arrested and jailed on mutiny charges; the offending commanders were then replaced by junior officers who were considerably less competent but more loyal to the government.

In early August of 2011 the already shaky relationship between the Egyptian president and his armed forces became even more tenuous when the chief of staff for the Egyptian navy died under mysterious circumstances just hours after submitting a memo to the defense ministry that was highly critical of the way Mubarak was handling the civil war. The government’s official explanation for the chief of staff’s demise was that he’d been the victim of a heart attack, but the rebels accused Mubarak of having him assassinated, and WikiLeaks released a stash of e-mails which it claimed constituted evidence the navy chief of staff had in fact been the victim of cyanide poisoning at the hands of Mubarak’s secret police; incidences of mutiny within the Egyptian navy skyrocketed overnight, and before long anti-Mubarak rumblings could be increasingly heard throughout the rest of the Egyptian military too.

     One of the clearest signs of how deep the rupture between Mubarak and his armed forces had become appeared just ten days after the Egyptian navy’s chief of staff died. A unit of regular army troops who’d been sent to arrest rebel fighters holding a machine shop near the Suez Canal wound up instead defecting to the rebels’ side, and when their company commander received an order from Cairo to have the defectors shot, he ignored it and joined his men in the rebel lines; their battalion commander followed suit just twelve hours later. Their division commander, faced with the prospect of being cashiered for his perceived failure to anticipate or to forestall the defectors’ actions, shot himself with his sidearm the following day.

    No sooner had news of the division commander’s suicide hit the world press than four of the Egyptian army’s five most senior generals abruptly tendered their resignations. The Suez Canal defections were the last straw for these veteran commanders, who’d been growing increasingly disenchanted with the Mubarak government as a whole and its conduct of the civil war in particular. Coming at a time when Mubarak desperately needed every inch of support he could get from his armed forces, these resignations were a deep if not mortal wound to his presidency’s already badly weakened prestige. A junior aide to the embattled president would anonymously confide to an Al- Arabiya correspondent covering the civil war: “There’s great fear that out enemies(the insurgent forces) will use the resignations as propaganda with which to incite the people against us.”

     Not that the people needed much inciting by then. Egyptian embassies and diplomatic offices abroad were now picketed on an almost hourly basis, and at home Mubarak could hardly even venture outside his own presidential palace anymore without at least a dozen bodyguards in tow-- bodyguards who were themselves getting upset over the fact they hadn’t been paid in weeks (or even months, in some cases) as a consequence of the financial problems the civil war had created for the government. In the abandoned offices and hallways of what had once been the chambers for the Egyptian Parliament, a colony of homeless civilians were huddling against the bombs and bullets-- and nursing thoughts of revenge against the autocrat primarily responsible for their plight.

    Even those ordinary citizens who’d continued to support the existing government out of fear of being arrested by the security forces or doubts regarding the rebels’ motives for trying to topple Mubarak were starting to turn against the regime. On those increasingly rare occasions when the embattled Egyptian president ventured out in public, he now had stones and other things thrown at him by angry crowds who resented his very existence by then. Indeed, stones were often the least of it-- the already agonizing summer heat in downtown Cairo was made that much tougher to bear due to the fires set off by homemade bombs thrown at Mubarak and his entourage. With Cairo’s fire brigades effectively out of commission, it fell to the Egyptian capital’s beleaguered civilian population to get the fires under control, and in some cases the amateur firefighters’ efforts to get those blazes under control actually ended up exacerbating the problem. In one of the most tragic examples of how the loss of a professional fire department can hurt a city, more than fifty homeless people squatting in an abandoned hotel were killed on August 13th when a stray firebomb crashed through one of the hotel’s windows and set the entire first floor ablaze within a mere two minutes; ten minutes later the hotel itself had been reduced to ashes. All that was left of the homeless colony which had been sheltering inside its walls was a handful of bones and a half-skull partially charred on one side as a result of the blaze.

    The fire which killed the homeless squatters also destroyed Mubarak's last hope for surviving the rebellion against his government. In a burst of rage over what was seen as tragic incompetence at best and blatant mass murder at worst, the few remaining Egyptian regular military personnel who were still on Mubarak's side turned against him en masse; on August 17th, a combined group of rebel fighters and disaffected regular army troops broke into Mubarak's presidential palace and arrested him. A military government assumed control in the ruins of Cairo and directed all combatants on both sides of the civil war to lay down their arms; the cease-fire accord which officially ended the conflict was signed in Alexandria on August 22nd, five days after Mubarak's arrest.

    Ancient Egyptian rulers had been honored with grand pyramid monuments when they passed away; in more recent times Gamal Abdel Nasser and Anwar Sadat, Mubarak's predecessors as president of the modern Egyptian nation, were accorded the honor of majestic state funerals upon their deaths. But no such privileges would be granted to Mubarak when his own life ended. If anything, his demise would serve as the occasion for a host of posthumous humiliations against him as his people took revenge on the fallen Egyptian dictator for the abuses to which he'd subjected them during his rule....

 

 

comments powered by Disqus

 

TO BE CONTINUED

Sitemetre

Site Meter