Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

Russian Revolution: 1914

What Really Happened: In the chaos following the Russian defeat in the Russo-Japanese war, there were a number of small riots, revolutions and uprisings across Russia. The Tsar’s secret police were able to put most of them down until the Tsar’s authority was shattered in the fires of the First World War.

What Might Have Happened: Russian society was a powderkeg and a house of cards, all mixed together. Problems in one part could affect the whole nation. At the risk of vastly simplifying the issue, there were three sides to Russian society before the revolution, The cities, where most people had come to work, the peasant farms, the source of the food and constantly rebellious, and the infrastructure, the railways, army, navy and so forth. The cities were dependent on the farms for food – food riots were the worst fear of the tsarist forces – and therefore they tried to use the army to force the peasants to hand over their food at fixed prices or at no price at all, save their continued existence. Famines were very common and happened regularly.

After the revolutions of 1905, the peasants of Russia had managed to take over many of the manor houses (the landlords personal land), although the landlords were working hard to regain their territories. Let’s say that one of the nobles manages to convince the Tsar that the peasants were defying his rule and that he should send in the troops to crush the revolting peasants. The Tsar agrees.

The peasants have seen their chance of getting what they want and firmly believe that they are entitled to: the landlords land. They attack the troops, which don’t hesitate to fire back. A full-fledged civil war breaks out, with both sides being extremely ruthless and destroying property. Some of the freelance preachers incite the peasants to burn their land so that the army can’t take the food.

This has a knock-on effect. The workers in the factories see their food prices going up and demand a wage increase. Cossacks kill a few protestors and manage to cause a riot. Soon, many of Russia’s cities are rioting and are in flames. Some troops desert and join the rioters, while others loot and kill indiscriminately.

The troubles in Russia soon attract the interest of unfriendly eyes. The German Kaiser expresses his sympathy for his cousin, the Tsar, and offers to supply troops to help him maintain his rule. The Tsar, egged on by the Tsarina, seriously considered accepting the offer, but factions at his court manage to dissuade him for the present. The German government, however, sees this as a chance to knock out Russia and prepares to move against Russia if invited in. The plan is simple: once invited in, they’ll never leave. Other powers are also interested. Both Austria-Hungary and Turkey look on the trouble as an opportunity to recover land stolen from them, while the Japanese see it as a chance to seize more Russian land. Even the Chinese sharpen their knives and prepare to attack. The British consider contingency plans to occupy Afghanistan, while the French just worry about their alliance with Russia.

Mid-1914 sees the Tsar nearly killed by a rebel. In desperation, he formally accepts his cousin’s offer and invites the German troops in to Russian land. This is too much for many of his court and they dispose him in a coup, ‘accidentally’ killing the Tsarina in the process. They order the army to dig in and defend the Russian Empire, but the army is already weakened and badly understrength. The Germans announce their intention to restore order and move in.

The German forces advance though Poland and into European Russia. They soon meet opposition, but the Russians are already weakened and the Germans, while bleeding, are able to move around the exhausted Russian troops and advance further, aiding nationalist movements along the way. Japan issues an ultimnation, demanding that Russia surrender its far eastern territories to Japan to preserve the peace, but the Russian viceroy refuses. Japan attacks. Soon, the Japanese have taken the naval base and are assisting and coercing nationalist movements in the Far East. The ottomans also demand the return of their lands, but the Russian court promises to return most of them if the ottomans stay out of the fighting. After receiving certain guarantees, the Ottomans stay out of the fighting for the present.

The Germans continue their advance, occupying the Ukraine and Byelorussia by late 1914, and preparing to march on Moscow. The Russian Empire is dissolving, and the members of the Russian government attempt to make the best deal they can. They have extra incentive as the ottomans announce their intention to occupy the stolen lands, to preserve them from the Germans. The Russian government is grateful to have those troops freed up for fighting elsewhere, but, as the army is collapsing anyway, they won’t do much good.

The winter brings nemesis for Russia. The starving city people manage to storm the winter palace as German troops approach, killing the court and the remaining government. There is a bewildering series of coups and counter-coups as the days go by, while the Germans are slowed down by the winter and their growing problem with partisans. The Russian Empire collapses into a collection of small states, many of which are at war with each other as well.

The Russian War, as it is commonly called, came to a formal end in March 1915. The Russian Empire had vanished, leaving behind the German client states, several independent nations, such as Finland, and a number of Japanese clients. There were already rumblings of a new war between the weak Chinese government and Japan, although Britain had formally protested, along with the United States. The German Empire was satisfied for the moment; they had new lands and their principal worry, that of fighting on two fronts, was relieved for the moment. They could continue to prepare for the showdown with France.

Short Term Effects: All the remaining major powers have been affected in some ways. Germany will have been weakened by the war, although once she gets the new client states under control, she’ll be more powerful than ever. Britain and the United States have been barely touched by the war, although they may need to fight Japan soon.

Longer-Term Effects: A Franco-German showdown was probably inevitable. However, in this timeline it would be delayed, which means that it could become nuclear when it happens. China’s republican government might well be able to give a weakened Japan a bloody nose when (if) the Japanese try to take over. The Ottoman’s get a massive moral boost and may end up surviving much longer.