| Serbia Refuses to Yield in 
    Albania  by Jeff Provine 
     Author 
    says: we're very pleased to present a new story from Jeff Provine's 
    excellent blog This 
    Day in Alternate History. Please note that the opinions expressed in 
    this post do not necessarily reflect the views of the author(s). 
     
      October 18th 1912,  
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        this day Serbia refuses to yield in Albania. With the growth of 
        
        nationalism in the course of the nineteenth century, ancient empires began 
        
        to split along the seams of peoples that had been stitched together by 
        
        rule of force for centuries. 
 The Holy Roman Empire had disintegrated, much of it becoming reborn as the 
        
        German Empire. Italy reunited after some 1500 years since the Romans. 
        
        Later, in the Balkans, the various peoples of the mountainous peninsula 
        
        began to erupt against centuries-long Ottoman domination.
 
 Nations like Romania and Serbia had successfully broken away from the 
        
        Ottomans, while the neighboring empire of the Austrian-Hungarians had 
        
        pushed administration upon Bosnia-Herzegovina to bring it to a more 
        
        European rule. Bulgaria stood ready to unite the Bulgars under their Tsar 
        
        Ferdinand, having set up a state of their own in 1878.
 
 "Couple of questions. 1) Franz FERDINAND? Did Franz 
          
          Josef die early? 2) If Germany wins, what does the nation-state of Poland 
          
          look like? Was it carved out of the lands occupied by Austria-Hungary? 3) 
          
          Is America neutral in all of this? Do American ships still supply Germany 
          
          with food? And does that food make its way down to Austria? Keep this one 
          
          going, it sounds interesting." - reader's commentsThe "Great 
        
        Powers" of Europe, the dominant empires in the world, scanned the 
        
        political situation and waiting for opportunities to conduct influence 
        
        toward their goals. Russia stood ready to expand into a pan-Slavic rule, 
        
        uniting the Balkans under their sphere and gaining significant ports. 
        
        Austria-Hungary wanted to keep the balance with the Ottomans, using them 
        
        as a pendulum to guide Serbian nationalism away from imperial lands. 
        
        Germany and France both wanted influence in the eastern Mediterranean, the 
        
        former with the Ottomans as a puppet state and the latter with political 
        
        control in the Levant.
 
 Modernist thought struck the Ottoman Empire at home with the Young Turk 
        
        movement pushing a new constitution in 1908. Struggles between 
        
        Bulgarian/Greek freedom fighters and the Ottoman army in Macedonia had 
        
        continued since 1904, but now was the time for action. Bulgaria named its 
        
        tsar, Austria-Hungary officially annexed Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Italy 
        
        began the path for victory in the Italo-Turkish War in 1911, gaining much 
        
        of the Ottoman Mediterranean territories.
 
 "1) Franz Josef died in 1916, and there\'s argument 
          
          about how much direct control Franz Ferdinand had taken toward the end. 
          
          Also, the band, though cool, makes discussion of pre-WWI confusing. 2) 
          
          Poland\'s going to be much farther east and south, taking up lands from 
          
          Russia and Austria-Hungary. Probably a lot of bloody migration in this TL. 
          
          3) America would probably stay neutral and make a tidy profit supplying 
          
          the Germans, who would then supply the Austrians." - reader's commentsIn 
        
        1912, war would spread like plague through Eastern Europe. With the Turks 
        
        falling to Italian forces, Bulgaria, Serbia, Greece, and Montenegro rose 
        
        up as the Balkan League. Austria-Hungary was uncomfortable at seeing their 
        
        counterpart begin to fall and hoped to reign in the battles by declaring 
        
        an ultimatum against Serbian troops that had pushed south into Albania. 
        
        The Serbs reportedly "spat" at the ultimatum and continued their 
        
        liberation and division of Balkan territory among the League.
 
 German Kaiser Wilhelm II had vowed support to Archduke Franz Ferdinand, 
        
        and, with such imperial clout, the Austrians joined the Balkan War against 
        
        the League. In response, the Russians excitedly went to war in support of 
        
        the League they had helped establish. France and Britain both took up 
        
        neutral positions despite France's longtime alliance with Russia and 
        
        Britain's not-so-secret unease at any Russian expansion, which had been 
        
        seen in the Crimean War only decades before.
 
 In the German Imperial War Council of December 8, it was realized that the 
        
        fitness of the German army was not what the Kaiser had hoped, and victory 
        
        would not be quick. The Austrians found themselves simply holding fronts 
        
        against Russia and the Balkan League. While the first two years of war 
        
        were grim, Germany and Austria arose in 1914 with a huge military push 
        
        through Poland. Russians pursued scorched earth, but the speed of the 
        
        German army checked their age-old tactic. Hundreds of thousands of 
        
        Russians would die as the Germans marched toward Moscow before the Czar 
        
        called for armistice.
 
 "Hungary and Romania would probably go to war right 
          
          quick over Transylvania (traditionally part of the Crown Lands of St. 
          
          Stephen, but with an ethnic Romanian majority that did NOT like 
          
          Hungarians)" - reader's commentsIn the south, Austria found itself 
        
        stretched and finally broken. The empire collapsed into anarchy that even 
        
        anti-Serbian sentiment could not resolve. At the Treaty of London in 1917, 
        
        a new eastern Europe was drawn up. Many new nations stood independent: 
        
        Albania, Austria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Finland, Estonia, 
        
        Latvia, Belorussia, and Lithuania. Much weakened, Russia erupted into 
        
        civil war between Communist and Tsarist factions that lasted until foreign 
        
        Allied troops settled the matter in the favor of the Tsar in 1919, with 
        
        the new independent nation of Ukraine being founded. The Ottoman Empire, 
        
        too, would succumb to the rash of revolution through the 1920s that were 
        
        said to be akin to those of the 1790s and 1840s. Nationalism broke up the 
        
        empire, which caused the Great Powers to grab influence in the Middle East 
        
        where they could.
 
 The twentieth century would see effective reform of the imperial system, 
        
        guaranteeing more social rights, but the overall rule of monarchs 
        
        balancing one another continued. Some said that the settling of the 
        
        Eastern Question saved the kings of Europe, but many historians scoff at 
        
        the idea of a war so vicious that it would cause the end of constitutional 
        
        monarchy as Europe's inherent political system.
   
     
     Author 
    says in reality Serbia acceded to the October 18 ultimatum. 
    Austria-Hungary did not wish to become part of the war due to its own 
    internal struggles, especially after Germany withdrew their boast of 
    military readiness until "mid-1914". By that time, all of Europe had built 
    up such war machines that the spark of the assassination of the Austrian 
    Archduke ignited the "War to End All Wars". In the meantime, the Balkan 
    League had settled much of themselves through the First Balkan War against 
    the Ottoman Empire and then the Second against Bulgaria to settle disputes 
    over land. To view guest historian's comments on this post please visit the
    
    Today in Alternate History web site. 
 
     Jeff Provine, Guest Historian of
    
    Today in Alternate History, a Daily Updating Blog of Important Events In 
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