Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

A peace to End All war

Christopher G. Nuttall

I suspect that some readers will be a little surprised at my optimistic view of this timeline, so I would like to make a few points clear. I suspect that the following things would have happened after WW1 anyway:

Germany would have become powerful again, in the economic field if not the military one.
France would want to prevent this, but fears that it would be impossible to do so.
The Russian Civil war would be won by the communists. Frankly, they had too many advantages to lose unless the west was far more forthcoming with military aid and therefore:
Stalin would still rise to power and begin/continue the communist infiltration of Europe. I can’t see any good reason to get rid of him entirely, while his power and position may be a little different, his existence is not in question.
The European empires would collapse anyway.
Hitler would have become a politician anyway.

I believe that WW1 was the greatest accident the human race has ever suffered. No one wanted it, but they were forced into it by circumstances and nationalism. WW2, by contrast, was very deliberate.

One of the major causes of World War Two was the humiliation inflicted on Germany by the allies of the Treaty of Versailles. Germany lost all its overseas colonies. From its homeland, Germany lost the provinces of Alsace and Lorraine to France, small areas of Eupen and Malmedy to Belgium, and another small border area near Troppau (now Opava) to Czechoslovakia. As a result of a plebiscite, Germany also lost Northern Schleswig to Denmark. France gained possession of the coalmines in Germany's Saar region for 15 years. Danzig (Gdansk) was taken from Germany and became a "free city" under protection of the League of Nations. Poland gained most of West Prussia and much of the province of Posen. Germany's Rhineland was to be demilitarised, but the Allies were to occupy parts of it for 15 years. Italy received the South Tyrol region of Austria-Hungary, and Japan obtained German colonies in the North Pacific Ocean and German holdings in China's Shandong province. Wilson also compromised on reparations, agreeing to much more money than the Germans could afford. Germany had to give the Allies coal, livestock, ships, timber, and other resources, plus cash payments, which were a whopping five million gold marks at the time, and were adjusted – upwards – later.

The lost land and huge reparations greatly angered many Germans, who also felt bitter about a "war guilt" clause in the treaty that declared Germany solely responsible for the war. Germans such as the Kaiser were branded as war criminals and the surrender of another eight hundred ‘war criminals’ was demanded.

After World War I ended, representatives of the victorious nations met in Paris in 1919 to draw up peace treaties for the defeated countries. The treaties, known together as the Peace of Paris, followed a long and bitter war. They were worked out in haste by countries with opposing goals and failed to satisfy even the victors. Of all the countries on the winning side, Italy and Japan left the peace conference most dissatisfied. Italy gained less territory than it felt it deserved and vowed to take action on its own. Japan gained control of German territories in the Pacific and thereby launched a programme of expansion. But Japan was angered by the peacemakers' failure to endorse the principle of the equality of all races.

To summarise, the Treaty of Versailles, which was signed with Germany, punished Germany severely. The German government agreed to sign the treaty only after the victorious powers threatened to invade. Many Germans particularly resented a clause that forced Germany to accept responsibility for causing World War I.

But what if President Wilson, the only real peacemaker in the allied councils, had decided to stick to his guns? Lets suppose that he realises what the inevitable consequences of humiliating Germany would be and acts to prevent it. When the other allies object, he demands that they end the practice of secret treaties, hold an international inquiry into the origins of the war and remove the blockade on foodstuffs for Germany. When France objects, Wilson informs them bluntly that the Americans will send mercy supplies to Germany (food, medical supplies, etc) and that the American navy will escort the convoys and prevent any attempt to seize the ships. When the British object to that, Wilson offers to allow the British to search the ships before they leave New York.

All these delays take us up towards the end of 1919, and the situation for both sides is desperate. Influenza is sweeping the ranks of both sides and the war must end soon. The Poles have been fighting a guerrilla war with German factions in Poland and are worried that the Germans see them as a lesser race. They demand that racial equality becomes part of any peace treaty. The German republican government has used the extra time to become stronger, but they know – grimly – that they cannot hope to win a renewed round of fighting. The allies have thousands more tanks, solders and aircraft. The war will last as long as it takes to stampede all though Germany.

Wilson finally manages to convene another conference, which hammers out the final terms of the treaty. They are:

1) The issue of war guilt to be settled by an international commission,

2) The German oversees colonies will become mandates of the occupying power, with fixed times for withdrawal,

3) The disputed territory in Europe will be settled by popular vote,

4) The equality of all races to be recognised by all powers,

5) The terms of sea warfare to be codified by another international commission,

6) General reductions in the army and air force belonging to the European powers stationed in Europe.

7) No reparations to be paid by any of the powers.

8) Each power to contribute 5% of its GNP to the Red Cross, for the benefit of those whose lives were shattered by the conflict,

9) The foundation of a League of Nations and a new Concert of Europe to ensure world peace.

To say that all powers accepted these terms without demur would be an exaggeration. France was worried about the possibility of Alsace-Lorraine choosing to return to German control and attempted to veto the treaty. Wilson, with the uneasy co-operation of the British, imposed a blockade upon France until she – reluctantly – decided to go along with the treaty. She did demand the new concert of Europe, believing that it would lead to a united states of Europe, under French guidance – of course. She also was worried about the size and efficiency of her army- compared to Germany – but was reassured that she could station as many troops as she liked in North Africa and bring them to Europe if needed.

Germany is frankly relieved by the treaty, and signs without demur. Adolf Hitler notes merely that the treaty was a “sign of divine providence for the German people, saved from the abyss at the last minute by their god”. Certain parties in Germany plan to take over the Concert of Europe and turn all of Europe into an empire.

Japan is delighted by the recognition about Japanese equality with whites – although less than happy about Chinese inclusion in as well. She occupies her mandates and plots to turn them into a situation in which they cannot break free of Japan if they wanted too. China is also pleased by the racial decision, but she wants all foreigners out, NOW!! A desire that was not settled by the treaty. Slowly, China heads towards collapse into civil war, just like in OTL.

Britain, of all the major powers, is most ambient about the Treaty. While the Empire has absorbed much of the Germany territory, the non-white population of the empire will be clamouring for a share in government. While this is not such a bad thing, there are places in the empire, such as South Africa, which would oppose strongly any attempt at racial equality. Although they don’t realize it, the British have been given a gift from God by the treaty, when in one of the minor skirmishes, a army officer called Reginald O’Dyer was killed before his departure for India. This means that there will not be a massacre at Amiskar to unite most of the Indian population behind Gandhi and the ‘quit India’ campaign.

Russia has still collapsed into civil war, and the bolsilvicks still win. Poland, Finland and the other new nations still emerge. The west is not too keen on interfering.

France, seeing competition from the United States as intolerable, and predicting that the Germans would soon return to being very powerful indeed, begins moves to create a political union between France, Germany and any other nation that wants to join. They believe that the continued existence of smaller nations are what brings about wars and therefore plan to unite as much of Europe as possible. The Germans are enthusiastic, and help to convince many powers that might be scared of German expansionism to join on the theory ‘if you can’t beat them, join them’. France is reluctant to invite Britain, but Germany insists, and so Britain is invited.

The structure of the European Union, for want of a better term, is very simple. The big counties, Britain, France and Germany, have three votes; the other counties have either one or two depending upon size (Poland has two, Belgium has one). The empires of each country remain under that country alone; but in the event of friction, the EU will negotiate an agreement, which the countries are obliged to follow.

There is free movement between the states, and scientists and technicians share information, as well as a common currency. The line-up of EU states is, in order of joining, France, Germany, Belgium, Luxemburg, Britain, Czechoslovakia, Austria, Poland, Finland, Norway, Spain, the Baltic states, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Denmark. The combined power of those countries, given time to build, could outmatch almost all of the rest of the world. Pledged to mutual defence, Europe is a much safer place in the late 1920’s.

With free movement and no tariffs, Europe manages to weather the great depression better than in OTL, life is hard for a while, but the combined gold stocks of the countries is used to pay where it can’t be deferred and used as surety for payments when they can be. Mussolini remains powerless and becomes a noted fiddle player in his later years.

Anyone who thinks I’ve got some dates mixed up is correct, but I believe that the reparations delayed the depression for a few years, giving France and Britain an illusion of solvency without needing to use scare gold reserves. In this timeline, the depression comes earlier, but is not as bad.

Germany, however, sees some rather disturbing signs as the year 1932 begins. There is been a steady infiltration of communist parties from the new soviet Russia, there are disturbing signs of a military build-up and the new German parliament member for Bavaria, one Adolf Hitler, is demanding strong action against the Soviet Union. Adolf Hitler? I hear you say? Lets go back in time a bit.

Hitler, in 1919, when the German army demobilised, found himself with nothing to do and little to recommend him except for war wounds and a war record that he could be proud of –and was. In a peaceful Germany with no real resentment, poverty, depression and a burning desire to avenge an unequal treaty, Hitler soon realises that the Nazi party will never get off the ground. He, having claimed a war pension to pay for his needs, therefore went to live in Bavaria and soon become involved in local politics there. While he was standing for election, the first signs of communist infiltration were discovered by local factory owners, who then went round the candidates to decide which of them would be most able to speak for them, and support him to the hilt. Hitler, scenting opportunity, accepted their money and ran for election against one Erwin Rommel, another former war hero (AN: I think Rommel was from Bavaria, correct me if I’m wrong) and won the election largely because of his fiery speeches, the quiet backing of his business associates and the news of the suicide of another war hero, the air ace Goring. The German public decided that older war heroes were likely to die at anytime and so Hitler beat Rommel. Rommel is supposed to have taken his defeat in good grace, but he resigned from politics soon after, joining the armoured warfare project with Basil Liddell Hart, Gudraian and many others.

In 1936, the Spanish Civil War begins, and exposed the communist penetration of Europe to the world. The war began because of Spain was long governed by a wealthy elite and its brutal military police, the civil guard. The people saw their chance for democracy in the collapse of the 13-year-old dictatorship of General Primo de Rivera. When elections were held and the monarchist candidates defeated at the polls, King Alfonso XIII left Spain for exile in Italy. On April 4, 1931, the Provisional Government of the Republic of Spain was proclaimed to wildly enthusiastic crowds. To a nation long victimized by malnutrition, illiteracy, unemployment, mass arrest and torture, these were heady days of freedom. Social Democrats, intellectuals, peasants, workers, artists, labour unionists, anarchists, communists, socialists, all intoxicated with the idea of a new society, worked tirelessly towards a Spain free of grinding poverty, privilege and cruel repression. When the new Republican government set about the task of modernizing Spain, class conflict erupted. To break-up the great estates of the rich and give land to the landless peasants was regarded by the wealthy as an attack on property. Improving the conditions of those who worked in factories, shipyards and mines was seen by the capitalists as threatening their profits. Giving autonomy to Catalonia was for the right-wing nationalists the tearing of Spain to tatters. Moves to reduce the overblown officer corps created animosity against the government from within the army.

Unfortunately for Spain, and Europe, the Communists from the USSR had been trying to take over. Underestimating the strength of the old order, they launched what was intended to impose a Stalinist regime on to Spain, and use it as a base for an attack on France, if a peaceful takeover became impossible. Hitler, and the rest of Europe watched with concern, when the conservative social forces sought salvation and the restoration of "order" by launching a military coup. The aim of the army rebellion led by General Franco and his Nationalist movement was the crushing of the Republican government in Madrid, but instead this treason was met with armed resistance. The civil war began in earnest.

The European Parliament was divided upon what to do. While they agreed to co-operate to establish a naval blockade, they were not sure if they should intervene to restore order, a military government being as distasteful as a communist one. Like in OTL, the democratic nations valicate, if they interfere, they will open huge wounds in their society, if they don’t, they face the risk of a communist victory in Spain. Hitler demands action, but even he can suggest no proper course other than to start a military build-up. This project, a joint European one, will hopefully allow Europe to match the USSR and hopefully defeat it.

Stalin, however, has no such problems and aids the Spanish republicans as much as he can, sending tanks, aircraft and ‘advisers’ to Spain. Europe manages to declare a blockade, but the soviets manage to slip in enough to drag the fighting out for a long time, while threatening war in Eastern Europe. Once it has realised that it will be defeated in three or so years, the Spanish republicans (on Stalin’s advice) declare the distribution of the lands held by the church, the lords (most of whom have fled to Britain or France) and the disloyal army officers to the peasants. This sways the peasants to their side and Franco is finally defeated in 1939, when an assigan gets close enough to put a bullet though his neck. Demoralised, the remainder of his forces surrender, and the republicans declare victory.

So, where are we? We have a united (aside from Spain) Europe, with a joint military and naval project. We have a powerful and aggressive soviet union that is slowly preparing to absorb Europe. We have three European empires on the brink of collapse and an isolationist USA.

Where can this go? One possibility is that the European Union will slowly take over the British and French empires. Another is a war with the Soviet Union, which may be in alliance with Japan. Or Stalin could decide that Europe would be too hard a nut to crack and turn his attention to Japan.

So, where do you think it should go?

Chris

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