Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

Straight left to the Jaw

An idea that has been discussed in several different alternate histories (on this site and others) is the prospects for a German victory in 1918. I tend to feel that many of them are unrealistic; the Germans would still have suffered tremendously, while the French could hardly have suffered worse at German hands than they did to themselves.

However, a possibility that receives very little coverage is the possibilities inherent in a German victory in 1914. This is not impossible; the Germans weakened their punch through Belgium by moving two divisions to the east and they could also have made the punch stronger in other ways. We might add in a less competent British commander, assuming that the first possibility is not strong enough.

Therefore, we have the Germans making a faster swing through Belgium and invading France. The BEF is in the way, true, but a stronger German force can smash through them, wiping out or capturing the BEF, which leads to a German victory at the Marne. As the French reel backwards in shock, the Germans conquer Paris and the government flees as it would do so later.

This is not the end of the war for the French, but they’d need time to rebuild. The British, on the other hand, would have lost almost all of their available forces (they sent four of six infantry divisions) and would have been panicked about the possibility of an invasion of Britain. Almost everything the British have left would be needed in Britain, particularly if the Irish decide to take the defeat as a cue to revolt.

So, what now? The Germans never had a very good idea of what they wanted from the western powers. My best guess is that they will annex Belgium, (possibly leaving a rump where the Belgium army is dug in), the Netherlands and perhaps North France. France would probably have to pay tribute of some kind to Germany and perhaps make some colonial concessions.

Britain, of course, is a tougher case. The Germans can’t get at the British unless they risk their entire fleet, while the British could not hope to land a new army on Europe, so they’d be in the lion/whale situation so beloved of many writers. I suspect that the British will finish off the German colonies – for the lack of something else to do – and continue to build up their army.

The Germans might have lost more ground than OTL on the eastern front, but I think they’d be able to claw it back. So we’d have a German advance east, maybe with more casuties, and a possible collapse of the Russian state. An alternative to an alternative, however, is that the Tsar might make peace on the basis of losing Ukraine and Byelorussia to the Germans, concentrating on solving problems at home. With Russia weakened, the Germans won’t send Lenin home in a sealed train.

So 1915 ends with a German colossus bestriding Europe. The Turks will be close German allies, although they will not have taken part in the war. Italy will probably have declared war on Britain and lost part of her fleet as punishment. Germany will have occupied Ukraine and Byelorussia.

What now?

There is no reason why the British Empire would collapse at once, as some writers have suggested. Britain would need to keep a powerful standing army, but without the constant fighting conscription (assuming that passes in OTL) will be handed on a much more sensible level. Britain and Japan will have divided Germany’s possessions in the Far East between them, remaining as allies. Britain will finance/turn a blind eye to Japan’s adventures in China. The growing German threat to India from the Ottoman Empire would encourage the modernisation of India and reduce religious strife.

America would not be involved in the short war. The Philippines would get their independence earlier unless the Americans get paranoid about Japanese ambitions. America would stay weaker longer. The Germans might, however, develop their contacts with Mexico to force the Americans to rearm.

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