Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

The stalemate that ensured in 1915 gave the Kaiser a chance to take the spotlight and be seen as a great statesman. Considering the reports being recovered, it was grimly obvious that Germany would lose the war; the only question was how long it would take. The Kaiser therefore took personal command of the German forces and ordered the following:

1) The Army would begin a withdrawal back to German territory (inc. Alsace-Lorraine) and launch no further offensives

2) The U-Boat’s would return to port and stay there

3) The Allies would be invited to a peace conference, which would solve the problems that caused the war.

4) Germany would only continue to support their allies if they agreed to stop attacking.

The Allies were at first encouraged by what they believed was German weakness. The British and French launched a massive combined operation in the west, synchronised with a Russian offensive in the east, to take advantage of the weakness. However, the German defences held against the allied attacks and slaughtered many British and French troops. The ghastly slaughter, combined with the absence of German attack and Belgium ungratefulness, led many British troops to wonder what they were doing there. Ordered to attack again, mutinies broke out and the men refused to attack further, several times shooting military policemen and one general.

Such conditions made it imperative that the allies discussed peace before their whole army disintegrated. Therefore, the British government reluctantly announced the end of active operations and asked the Swedish to host a peace conference. The American president, who had been talking about things like self-determination, very annoying to empires that could not allow such ideas, was politely ignored. The swing of American politics would soon move away from foreign affairs.

The conference settled a number of points. The British would be permitted to station troops in Belgium, but they could not be stationed at the border. The Germans would also pay an indemnity to Belgium, to compensate for their unprovoked attack. The German colonies taken by the British were returned; those taken by Japan or Australia were not. Alsace-Lorraine would remain German, which annoyed the French, but their army was unwilling to attack and so they had to give in, which they did with bad grace. The Russian forces would return to their pre-war borders and Serbia would be returned to its borders, although they had to pay compensation for the murder of the archduke. The Ottoman Empire would survive with a joint British/German guarantee of its territorial integrity, but most of the Persian Empire would become a British protectorate. World War One ended on 23^rd March 1915.

The powers slowly demilitarised and went back to internal development. The British granted the whole of Ireland home rule in 1916, while developing its economy so that a split with Britain would ruin it completely. India also received limited home rule, although foreign affairs remained firmly in British hands. The British also designed the commonwealth treaty, which united the British dominions into a common defence and trade agreement.

Germany suffered some upheaval as various parties claimed that Germany had abandoned certain victory. The Kaiser offered to abdicate, but instead handed over much of his power to a general assembly and parliament, which would allow him to continue to play the role of international statesman. Russia, too, moved towards democratic reform as troops returned to their villages with their experiences and their tales of what life was like in the outside world. The revolutionaries would be frustrated no more.

Britain and Japan reaffirmed their alliance in 1920. The two powers decided to conspire to share the Chinese market between them, which did not please either the Americans or the French, but neither power had the strength to force their views. The British also encouraged Japan to purchase one of the French colonies, so that they had room to expand. The Japanese government became more democratic as the years went by, finally reducing the emperor to the role of a constitutional monarch.

French pomp masked many French weaknesses. They were unable to make any of their colonies pay for themselves, with the possible exception of Madagascar (sold to Japan), and the natives were constantly restless. The army had proved itself unreliable in any long war, while they were being edged out of most of the world markets. They were therefore receptive to the German proposals to create a customs union and slowly unite their nations. This would allow them to trade without tariffs across Europe, joined by Italy, Spain, Austro-Hungary, Sweden, Norway and Greece, and their empires. This created a trade bloc across most of Europe.

The Americans saw themselves, for some reason, as the injured party. They had taken no part in the stalemated war, and now saw that they were losing ground in the trade contest. Large parts of the world either refused American goods or demanded high tariffs for their import. This caused some distress and therefore the Americans retaliated by waving the Monroe doctrine and strengthening their influence in Latin America, pushing out German and British trade and threatening British territories. This annoyed the South American nations, many of whom opened up discussions with the other powers. Argentina and Brazil, both of who regarded the American actions as threatening and unjustified threats to their sovenitnity, purchased dreadnaughts from Germany (who had signed a naval reduction treaty with the UK in exchange for the UK waving their agreement with France) and hired Germans to train their armies.

Crisis broke out in the Philippines in 1938. The nationalists had watched the development of Siam and Japan with envy and saw that most of their business was going to America, while American businesses held most of the trade in their grasp. They began protesting and boycotting American – and, ironically, British – goods, while purchasing Japanese goods. When the Americans imposed new tariffs, the Philippine people began a lucrative smuggling trade, as the customs officers were mainly Filipino, it was easy to ship in goods without much hindrance. The American businesses, meanwhile, started to bribe Filipino politicians so that they would crack down on the smuggling trade. The politicians raised a militia, but, when ordered to fire on protestors, deserted and civil war broke out.

Rapidly, the rebel forces defeated the American trained police and security forces, before breaking open the American warehouses and distributing the supplies to the crowd. They then attacked the American army and naval bases before they could be reinforced, causing the surrender of the army forces and destroying the naval base, not, however, before the American ships in harbour could escape to the high seas. Without fuel, however, the ships could only make a British port – Singapore.

The rebels then declared the formation of a provisional, and independent, government. The new nation was recognised immediately by Japan, Siam, Russia and Germany, several of them sending supplies to the rebel forces, while the British, despite not recognising the new nation, interned the American ships in Singapore. America, feeling a serge of anti-Japanese feeling, blamed the Japanese for the revolution, even through the new nation had requested protection from Britain and/or Australia. Despite that, America declared war on Japan, breaking the 25-year peace. The other powers, Germany, France, the British Empire, and Russia, were soon pulled in and set the world ablaze again, as:

1) America demands that Japan stop trading with the rebels

2) Japan refuses

3) America declares war on Japan,

4) British intern ships, pissing off the US

5) US starts throwing its weight about in the Caribbean and Latin America

6) Germany demands that the US return to pre-war positions in Latin America and stop interfering with German shipping to south America

7) Argentina and Brazil seek allies, Germany and France sign defence agreements with them.

8) US waves Monroe Doctrine, demands that German ships return to Europe, Germany instead reinforces its ships

9) Argentina and Brazil renounce the Monroe Doctrine and ask Americans to leave their nations. They also pressure Panama to claim neutrality and close the canal

10) America orders Germany and France out of the Americas

11) America starts demanding that Canada stand down its forces, British move naval forces to the region

12) America declares war on Germany and France

13) Britain demands that Americans stop interfering with British shipping

14) Americans refuse and mass troops near Canada

15) Britain reinforces Canada and starts supplying Japan and the Philippines

16) American ships collide with British ships. The two sides shoot at each other, the formality of a declaration of war is not bothered with.

Author’s Notes: In reality, Germany had only two chances to win the war, right at the start and the spring offensives in 1918. They had to win before the full power of the allies, including America, was brought to bear on the Germans. 1914 offered the chance to force France out of the war, while 1918 offered the chance to smash the British armies before they could be reinforced. Nether worked and Germany lost the war. That said, the allies endured three years of ghastly slaughter before the war ended.

I do think there’s some difficulty with the French accepting Alsace-Lorraine’s continued loss, but would their soldiers or the British fight to recover it? If not, they may need to wait another few years to try again, particularly if the other powers leave the war, leaving them alone against Germany.

Why Sweden instead of America? None of the powers were interested in Wilson’s beliefs on self-determination, it would only upset people. The last thing five powers who each want to remain supreme in their spheres do is invite another power to join them. Sweden has no stake in the peace beyond some interest in the balance of power.

The Trade Union in Europe’s the only real chance for Sweden and Norway to stay solvent. Nether power has empires to trade with and they have big, unfriendly, neighbours. It’s a case of ‘if you can’t beat them, join them’.

The British intern the American ships as part of the laws of war governing neutral powers. Basically, the ships get one day in port, but then must either leave or be interned – without any rearming. Once the British recognise the Philippine republic, they need to intern the ships.

Thoughts?

Chris

The Truce of 1915