Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

By: Christopher G. Nuttall

This started out as a small idea that would lead up to a third world war in 1946, but it took on a life of its own. I have summarised it here and if anyone wants me to develop it further or develop it themselves, just email me. The POD is the mini civil war, which was never very much in OTL, just some shouting.

“How many divisions has the Pope?”

Stalin to Molotov

As the big three, Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt, met to discuss the shape of the post-war world, Stalin presented them with a surprising demand that, for different reasons, they were inclined to support. Why, he asked them, should a nation, which was defeated due to its own incompetence, nearly dragging another down with it, and then collaborating shamelessly with their mutual enemy until it became clear who was going to win, be allowed a share of the spoils of war? The nation discussed, of course, was France, which was demanding a share in the government of Germany and assistance in a return to it becoming a great power.

Stalin, needless to say, was not pushing this idea out of his sense of natural justice. Studying the strategic position of the war, he concluded that the west would unite to some degree against the USSR. Having concluded that, he decided to damage any concept of European unity – and if the allies would help him with that, so much the better.

No one is quite sure where he got this idea. The most likely event, though, was the mini civil war that erupted in France as the allies approached Paris. The French communists had attempted to throw the Nazis out of Paris and use their possession of the capital as grounds for their inclusion in any post-war government. DeGaulle had sent in the Free French and they had fought a bloody battle in the streets, continuing until the communists were nearly wiped out. Given that they were pretty much Stalin’s tools, he must have realised that a communist victory at the French polls was unlikely. Therefore, he displayed his contempt by forbidding the French any power after the war.

Churchill had been exasperated constantly by the French, and DeGaulle in particular. After practically joining the German side, they expected to be treated as a great power, while refusing to allow their forces in Indochina to fight the Japanese. Sure, the Japanese outnumbered them, but even an unsuccessful battle would be of great aid to the allies cause. Churchill, who was in need of soviet concessions anyway, supported the plan.

Roosevelt was, if possible, even more annoyed. The French were demanded huge quantities of lend-lease to rebuild their industries for after the war, help building up an army and blocking any attempt to ally with Ho Cho Minh, the Vietamenese leader, who was fighting both the Japanese and the French. He therefore sees the Russian suggestion as a way of forcing the French to co-operate. Roosevelt was thus less altruistic, but American history ‘experts’ were blaming World War Two on the French actions in the Rhineland and therefore he was uncertain of allowing the French to have any hand in government.

He also saw it as a chance to restrain the communist penetration of Europe if Germany was split into three. When Truman took over, he supported Stalin in exchange for concessions elsewhere and therefore Germany would be divided into three sections, under an overall allied governing board. Limits on the number of troops stationed in Germany and mutual support in case of a revolt were agreed upon.

The French were livid, but had very little recourse, as they were dependent on Lend lease. They decided to dig into the rest of their colonies and fight to keep them. The French in Indochina struck against the Japanese and a nasty war developed. The French also re-asserted their control over Algeria and the rest of French North Africa.

The more intransigent French attitude leads to troubles for the allies shipping supplies to Germany and the war front. This allows the war to last another month, which stretches allied reserves more, but the course of the war leads to the same end result. There are minor changes, such as the suicide of Goering and the body of Adolf Hitler being spirited onto a U-Boat, which surrendered after Germany did, but no other changes on a major scale.

The French debacle in Indochina convinces the Atlee government in Britain of one thing: they don’t want any messy colonial wars in the British Empire. Wavell, who was the second to last viceroy of India, had a plan – called, appropriately, Operation Madhouse – to pull everything and everyone British out of India in one concentrated effort, and to abandon India completely. The Attlee government orders him to do so and India is abandoned in late 1945. The Indian Nationalists attempt to form a government, but a nasty three-way civil war breaks out all over the country. By 1947, British Troops, backed up by American and Canadian ones, are back, trying to hold a fragile peace together.

Further British measures included them selling Belize to America, allowing South Africa to scoop up Kenya and most of the other African territories, and drawing down on British commitments elsewhere.

The Anglo/American/Soviet occupation of Germany goes reasonably well, until the soviets decide that their sector is going to revolt and insist on bringing in more troops. This leads to a stand-off as German rebels escape into the Anglo zone and demand asylum. Stalin makes threats unless the rebels are handed back over, to which the allies refuse and ship more troops in. Cooperation is in serious trouble.

Stalin does not want anyone to know, and with good reason, that the soviet economy is in serious trouble. The absence of German equipment in the quantities that existed in OTL has severely impeded the rebuilding after the war. While the soviet army remains powerful, it does not have the capability for a sustained war or the ability to resist a nuclear strike.

The British and Americans attempt to set up a NATO analogue, but the French refuse to join. That means that shipping supplies to Germany will be much harder and once the allies are pushed out, getting back in will be hard. Stalin grins and considers more pressure on Norway and other places. However, a terse American deployment of nuclear bombers forces him to rethink his policy and he invites Truman and Attlee to a meeting in Finland to discuss Germany.

Stalin’s proposal is very simple: Germany will be declared an occupied state by the three powers, jointly ruled according to mutually worked out rules, intended to keep Germany down. Germany will be demilitarized parmarmently as much as possible. The harshest term of the new treaty is simple: Germany is forbidden nuclear weapons under all circumstances. In the event of the Germans being caught attempting to construct them, one of their cities will be destroyed.

The western powers agree to the creation of the disarmed and occupied Germany as a buffer between the two sides. Stalin is free to concentrate on infiltration into Asia and Africa. After much argument, Marshal Mannerhim, of Finland, is appointed as the overall commanding offer for the troops stationed in Germany.

So, how far can this go?

Will the Germans attempt to rebuild? I suspect that they will try at some point. Depending upon the circumstances, they might be able to take full advantage of the collapsing Soviet Union and make a third try for world domination.

Will the Germans get nuked? Possibly, depending upon when they tried to get nukes, if it happens before 1949, when the USSR got the bomb, the Americans will have to drop it. What US president could give that order in peacetime and survive?

Will France go Fascist? Unfortunately, probably. DeGaulle could attempt to set up a dictatorship as France struggles to maintain the resources to fight its colonial wars.

Can France hold on to her colonies? I don’t think they could, soviet supplies and propaganda would sign the death knell of them, but the effects on France if she has to fight a long war could be disastrous. A military dictatorship or fascist regime is not impossible.

Thoughts?

Chris