Kyle’s suggestions that we should ‘allow’ the allies to win once or twice inspired me to think about how World War 2 could be won in a different manner. I think that if the premier strength of the allies had found a target before the fascist beast grew too powerful, the war could have been ended much sooner. But what could serve as that target?

So I studied the various nations involved in the war, and discovered Italy was by far the weakest. So why did they survive so long?

Background

Despite being the leader – Il Duce – of the first fascist nation, Mussolini adopted a half-hearted attitude towards war until after the defeat of France, whereupon he declared war on the allies, and attacked, with what results we all know. What is not so often appriatied is that the moment chosen by Mussolini to attack was not necessarily a bad one, from a strategic point of view. His ally, Germany, had crushed France and was about to invade Britain; he had large numbers of men and a powerful navy. If his forces had been up to German, or even French, standards, most of Africa would be an Italian domain today.

Italian Navy 1940

6 battleships

7 heavy cruisers

17 light cruisers

1 coast defence ship

122 destroyers and torpedo boats

119 submarines

Point of Divergence

When the allies declare war on Germany after Hitler invades Poland, Mussolini, instead of sitting on the sidelines, declares war on the allies.

The Story

The Italian declaration of war caught the allies by surprise, and rendered the foundations of the Chamberlain government very shaky. However, it opened up new possibilities for offensive action against the axis. In the Mediterranean, British Sea power, backed up by the French, could be used to great effect. Italy is very vulnerable to sea power, ever since the Punic wars. Basil Liddell Hart, a personal friend of Churchill (First sea lord at the time) was very aware of this and it is likely that he discussed the matter with him.

The French, who have been trying to shift the war’s centre away from France, are delighted. They see it as a way of gaining credit for the allies with the British doing most of the work. They do allow forces in Algeria to join the British offensive, seeing that as a chance to enlarge the French empire, but mainly continue building up in France and ducking the commitment to attack Germany after Poland was hit. They are less pleased when the BEF, instead of going to France, heads to the Mediterranean, but they can’t really complain.

Sections of the British army that should have been part of the BEF are dispatched to Egypt and Malta. The British navy is massed in the Mediterranean and the Italian fleet steams out to fight. The battle is more even that you might expect, but the British win with little damage. British forces invade Libya and the other Italian processions, in the process restoring the Ethiopian emperor to his throne. He is grateful enough to sign a permanent treaty with Britain.

The British then have a dilemma. The Germans, aided by the soviets, have just finished the conquest of Poland and are gearing up for their next offensive – and France is the logical target. Churchill pushes for a direct attack on Italy itself, to topple the Italian government, and knock Italy out of the war. If sections of the Italian fleet can be captured, he reasons, then the royal navy can deploy large ships to the pacific without having to worry about the lines of communications.

If you look at a map of Italy, you’ll notice that there are two places the British could attack with disastrous results for Italy. Anzio, and then advance to Rome itself, or Taranto, the Italian harbour. From a tactical point of view, Taranto is probably the best. Even if the British are pushed back into the sea, they can destroy the harbour and the cowering remnants of the Italian fleet. Urged on by the French, the BEF lands at the harbour and successfully captures the lower half of Italy as far as Naples. The Mussolini government falls and he flees to Germany. The new Italian government sues for peace. The British take a hard line and demand the surrender of the Italian fleet, an end to Italian aid to Germany, and an Italian declaration of war on Germany. After much argument, the final deal is an end to aid, the cession of Taranto and the fleet and the Italian Empire to Britain. At the end of February 1940, the British can pat themselves on the back before trying to deal with Hitler.

Not so the French. Having pushed the reluctant British into attacking Italy, they discover to their horror that the entire Italian Empire will go to the British. They at first try to push Chamberlain into sharing the spoils, but even he is unwilling to bend. The British fought hard with little French help and are reluctant to share the results of their efforts. The French therefore suggest the Italy be portioned out between France and Britain. The Soviet spy service discovers this and tips off Hitler, who broadcasts it to the whole world. The Italians panic and fear that the next step is an amphibious attack on Anzio and an overland attack from France. They strengthen their defences from both places.

The British government is shocked by the relivation that the suggestion was made. Chamberlain had rejected it out of hand, but the assembled MPs think that they should have been consulted. The British Government falls and Churchill is invited to take power. Hitler sees the writing on the well and orders General Kurt Student’s airborne division to attack Rome and hopefully seize the Italian government. The attack fails, even with the vast German advantages, there are just too many Italians and they are defending their own capital city. Germany loses both Student’s division and prestige.

I’m going to discuss the economics of the situation now. Germany is dependent on too many things, oil, chrome, steel, etc. coming from other countries. The Germans have very little of what they need and they have to plan carefully what to do with it. If they place all their resources into building panzer IVs, they won’t have any resources to build the equipment needed to make the next generation of tanks. Worse, a tank, no matter how good, is worthless without ammunition, fuel and spare parts. Therefore, Germany can never have as many tanks as it has the ability to build. They also need trucks, aircraft, guns, and all the equipment needed for that. Germany only achieved miracles in 1944-1945 in OTL because it had become obvious to Speer that there was no point in preparing for the future.

Therefore, the German system is built on small, carefully prepared and planned, wars, rather than jumping into them headfirst. Germany could not go straight from Poland to France; they have to build up again first.

In this timeline, the crushing Italian defeat cut the Germans off from one source of supply of valuable raw materials that they need desperately. The French, eager to assert themselves, begin putting pressure on Spain, Turkey and Sweden not to send the Germans any more materials. They are furious, but all of them are hideously vulnerable to the allies and are forced to give in. In America, the allies are perceived as bullies because of this.

The French are also raiding the German defences. These are not big attacks, but the French are learning how to use tanks properly and how to counter German skills. The attacks don’t get very far because the Germans are very good fighters, but they are being bled. After Gamelin is blamed for losing the French a crack at the Italian Empire, he is sacked and replaced by Weygand, who is far more aggressive.

Therefore the Germans are feeling the pinch. Hitler realises that he has got to do something quickly or Germany will be suffocated. He decides, against the advice of his generals, to launch the attack on France in March. The attack does not go though Belgium, but straight though the border. In our timeline, the attack was two months later, undersupplied with fuel and dependent on a quick success. In this timeline, however, the Germans must win quickly, or lose. The mainly French forces fight well, better than in OTL, and while they are pushed back slowly, they prevent a blitzkrieg style victory. After a week of hard fighting, both sides are fairly sure that they are going to lose.

Hitler has a dilemma. He knows that he will be blamed – rightly – for the attack failing. Worse, if he remains in power, he may be assinated and then a civil war will break out. Therefore, he sacks a number of generals who have been become too political and does a surprising thing: he announces his retirement, with Rudolf Hess as his heir.

(Author’s Note: Why have Hitler resign? Well, I figured that Hitler being assinated had been done thousands of times before, so let’s try something different. He keeps the title of Fuehrer, but little real power. If he has children, what might they do?)

Hess is more patient than Hitler, and maybe more cunning. He needs to stop the war quickly so that the Germans can build up again before the soviets, who have been trying to crush Finland, can start interfering in Poland. He also needs to split the coalition between France and England, which he does by pointing out that the British have gained at French expense. France is now ready for a peace treaty, which is signed on May 10^th 1940. Churchill fumes, but is forced to agree. Stalin is less happy, so he starts considering putting pressure on Germany over Poland. Hess discovers a German scientific proposal for a super bomb. Resources are tight, but the rewards would be great.

Immediate consequences: 1940-1941

Well, what happens now? The European war is over, with the British the clear winners. France is more confident, but has had a falling out with Britain, and may not stay allied with her for long. The British navy has been strengthened by the addition of half the Italian fleet and the British army has gained more experience at amphibious campaigns. Some of these go to the Far East, to India, Singapore, and Australia, where British prestige has been increased. In Japan, the Japanese curse the failure of their German ally and contemplate a war with the British and the Americans. In Russia, Stalin considers the lessons of the Russian-Finnish war and considers what he can get away with in the Balkans, Poland and Turkey.

End of Part 1.

Should the story continue? You tell me.

Chris

Christopher_g_nuttall@hotmail.com