Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

I do not presume to say how likely this AH is, as no one can predict the workings of the mind of a mad dictator, but it does fix in with Stalin’s conceptions of warfare and with a historical incident from World War One. In the early weeks of that war, the Germans sent about four units of the German army from the France Front to the Russian front, missing both the battle of the Marne and the Battle of Tannenburg, being en transit when those two battles happened and therefore took no part in either. This little mishap may well have cost Germany the war.

Now lets consider Stalin’s position and that of the USSR. There are two likely fronts – even the ultra-paranoid Stalin would not consider the possibility of Britain attacking through Iran – Poland and the Far East. Stalin knows that the Japanese have suffered one fearful chastisement at Nomonhan and suspects that they will be burning for revenge, but he is utterly terrified of the Germans. The plain fact is that any forces in the Far East cannot be moved without fear of attracting a Japanese attack, while those forces are the best forces immediately available and will almost certainly be needed in the west.

The logical course of action is a pre-emptive strike. I can’t really see Stalin having any problems with the morality of such an action, but when best to strike? I could see several possibilities, but the latest time that Stalin could attack would be just after the Germans invaded, before the scale of the disaster became clear. After that, it would have taken iron nerves to strike south before Japan hit pearl harbour and became embroiled with America.

In OTL, Stalin closeted himself for several days after the news of the German attack came through. Lets assume he comes out one day earlier and orders Soviet forces in Manchuria to attack the Japanese (perhaps in collaboration with the Mongolian SSR forces). Most of the blow would fall on the Japanese at Nomonhan (again) to pinch off the forces in what was a similar situation to Kursk, while the rest would fall on the main Japanese force at Tungan.

The result is extremely likely that the Japanese would be crushed in the early battles, before they recover from the shock. After they do, we can expect them to use their naval power to attack Vladivostok and move in planes, stripping their carriers if necessary, to obtain air supremacy.

Air power is likely to be the only Japanese advantage in the battle. In tanks, infantry and most other qualities they are hopelessly outmatched. I see them being pushed back as far as Korea, with revolts appearing in Manchuria and Mao and Cheing being pushed to attack the Japanese backs. Stalin can them switch forces about, so that the more combat capable divisions can arrive back in the west – just in time for a counter offensive. That counter-offensive rocks both sides back and causes a limited pause in operations, although Hitler is eager to resume the march on Moscow.

The Japanese discover that their empire is coming apart. There are revolts and attacks coming in from all over China, so they certainly do not have the time to go after the US. They also ransack the navy for anything that can be used in China. Stalin pushes the British to declare war on the Japanese, but the British think that they have too many problems; although the absence of a Far Eastern Front means that the North African forces can hand out a defeat to the Germans, which they do in January 1942. By March, Hitler has to decide wither to send more forces to Africa or evatuate Rommel and cut his losses. He hesitates too long and the British overrun Libya in March.

The eastern Front is not going well for Hitler. Stalin has pulled out most of his first-rank forces from Manchuria and is using them against the Germans. The Germans therefore suffer a number of small defeats before a soviet counter attack is destroyed, which leaves both sides temporally exhausted.

Stalin is also feeling the pinch economically. The USSR needs materials that they are not getting through Lend Lease or anything else. The British do try to send equipment and supplies, such as Mayan rubber and aircraft engines, but they don’t have the strength to do what Stalin really wants, which is an attack on Germany.

Through 1942, the Japanese threaten the British to stop them aiding the soviets. The British, however, are much less intimidated than they were in 1939-41, because with the defeat of the Italia/German force in Africa, the canal is secure, not to mention the fact that the British can now spare several more divisions of battle-hardened troops for the Far East and a competent commander.

The Japanese therefore decide on a very limited war against Britain. They target Singapore and the East Indies, both British and Dutch. They gamble that this will not bring the US into the war, although its strategic suicide if it did, because the US has been building up its own forces in the Philippines and therefore would be a hard target to take. They also coerce Thailand into allowing then basing rights.

In OTL, the Japanese had so many strokes of luck that I would reject such an AH for CTT on general principles. Most of those factors won’t apply in ATL. Instead of a very weak air-force (which still did some damage), they’ll face several squadrons of Spitfires and Hurricanes with experienced crews. Instead of two battleships, there will be several carriers and support ships, including submarines, lying in wait. Furthermore, the British have decided to station forces ready to rush into Thailand to attack the Japanese while landing.

The Japanese have planned a two-prong offensive. Step one involves an amphibious offensive just past the border in Thailand. Step Two involves army units (all that can be spared from Manchuria) crossing into Thailand and proceeding to cut the land connection between Burma and Malaya. Step one is a disaster. The British have air patrols out (like they did in OTL) and see the Japanese coming. After a highly successful submarine attack, the Japanese land, to be greeted by a charge from British tanks. The Japanese tanks are unable to deploy properly and are destroyed. The Japanese force is wiped out.

Step two works out better. The Japanese manage to cross Thailand without trouble and some viscous fighting develops in lower Burma. However, the British are not demoralized and know that all they really need to do is hold the Japanese in a sandwich while the Submarine offensive strips them of supplies.

World War Two ends in 1943 with an uneasy peace. The Japanese are beaten and are willing to accept something less than total humiliation. The British recover the East Indies and add both Thailand and Indochina to their empires. Japan retains lower Korea, while the USSR holds Manchuria, which they set up a puppet government. Mao is not given any part of that government and therefore the Chinese communist party falls apart in 1945.

The war in Europe burned out. The Germans get to keep Poland, the Baltic’s and half of the Ukraine and Byelorussia. The USSR gets the rest and a serious supply problem means that they won’t be able to start thinking about re-conquering it for some time.

Italy is forcibly integrated into the Reich. The Italian colonies go to the British, Vichy France retains an uneasy autonomy, but Darlan is more than willing to do whatever Hitler wants. However, part of the peace treaty prohibits new French or German forces in Algeria.

The British Empire does not topple completely like in OTL. Rather, the Indian and Arab nationalists demand either greater autonomy in the Empire or independence. India becomes a Dominion in 1945, with a government that needs the British to cut through the arguments and assume some kind of direction.

Hitler spends most of the next two years preparing for the next war. He has recognised most of his mistakes and has spent the years rebuilding Germany’s forces. Worse, he believes that the Atomic project might offer a quick end to any war and is developing the bomb as fast as possible.

As 1947 advances, it appears that the peace is about to be shattered…

Man of Steel