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Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM |
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This Day in Alternate History Blog
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Peace Without Honour
In 1941, the Japanese
decided to throw their lot in with Nazi Germany and attacked the western powers.
It was, as Scott pointed out, an idiotic decision.
The Japanese could not hope to conquer the USA, or even the UK, and
without that possibility their eventually defeat was certain – unless the US
decided to give up the struggle at some point.
This timeline may be the only possible way that Japan can win WW2.
As to wither or not it counts as ASB, I’ll leave that up to you to
decide. Let’s have Japan win at
Midway, and by ‘win’ I mean the near-complete destruction of the pacific
fleet, including all the carriers. That’s
the first POD. The second POD,
which may or may not follow on from the first, is FDR’s death of a heart
attack just after news of the disaster comes in.
Henry Wallace becomes president of America.
Wallace was pro-USSR.
He would have been more receptive to the desperate soviet demands for
more lend-lease and a second front, even at the expense of the pacific. If
Japan had offered to negotiate, or even the US launched the idea, he might well
have been receptive. Let’s assume
he is receptive, ignores Churchill’s pleas and agrees to a peace conference.
The US-Japan peace treaty
is signed a month after Midway. The
US accepts Japanese control over their conquests (Burma, Malaya, Indochina,
Dutch East Indies and the parts of New Gununi they hold). Japan withdraws from the Philippines, Midway and gives
certain guarantees for American trade and Chinese rights. The US reoccupies the Philippines, but the treaty states they
have to remain demilitarised. Japan
formally apologises for Pearl Harbour. Britain receives a
Japanese guarantee of no further inroads into India and the remainder of the Far
East Empire, including Australia and New Zealand. The British are far more uneasy about the peace deal and
accurse the Americans of a sell-out. The
alliance is fractured, so the British will be more up-front about looking after
themselves first and placing American objectives second.
The Free French get a boost in the form of the repatriated IndoChinese
garrison. The Pacific War is over.
The US moves its remaining ships to the Atlantic and continues
preparation for an invasion of France. The
UK refuses to commit more than a division to any ‘overlord’ plan and demands
that the desert war ends first. Rommel
is defeated in late 1942, allowing the Americans to launch ‘overlord’ in
mid-1943. It’ll probably fail.
American troops would be untrained and inexperienced. The
British would probably refuse to commit troops to France with Japan eyeing the
weakened British India and considering overrunning it.
Once the Germans have mopped up the American forces, they can knock
Stalin back again. My presumption is that
this leads to a crisis in American politics.
Not being an expert, I won’t say who might win, but I suspect that
Truman might come out ahead. Programs
to help the USSR for nothing will be suspended. America will use Britain as a base, but not have any extra
alliance beyond that. America will
also build up its navy fast and face Japan.
However, the war is still very much in the balance Cue Lizards… Comments?
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