Prime Minister Machiavelli

Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

It is pretty obvious in hindsight that the British Empire was badly governed from a long-term point of view from 1930 to 1949. Basically, the British policy consisted of hiding our necks in the sand until it was too late to avoid war, then overestimating the power of Germany, so we lost the best chance to stop Hitler and then bankrupting the empire to fight a war that ended any possibility of Britain remaining a global power.

I set myself the challenge of keeping Britain as a major power from the latest possible date. That requires a different set of decisions on the part of the politicians running the empire.

Churchill won’t do. He was an empire-loyalist, if such terms could be used, but he was unable to simply set the strategic objectives and then let his subordinates handle the tactical matters, he insisted on being involved with most minor decisions as well. Further, he was convinced that the British were destined to govern the empire and therefore refused to allow others any hand in running matters. Finally, he had a blinkered view of the US (or possibly FDR’s power in America) and practically sold British long-term interests out to America in exchange for minor help and a great deal of platitudes on freedom and self determination.

Halifax is possible, but he was an appeaser. Him becoming PM would probably mean a constitutional crisis of some kind, even if the war ends almost at once. Halifax would be accused of having sold out to Germany.

I’m therefore going to take the liberty of introducing a new character into British politics. I could not find a viable historical figure, so I’ve decided to call him Machiavelli. He’s an empire loyalist, very patriotic and determined to see the empire survive. So, when Chamberlain gets the boot, we’ll have Machiavelli put forward as a compromise candidate, just as the Germans advance into France.

Machiavelli starts at once. He agrees to the French request for more fighters in exchange for the French navy being sent to British ports. Further, he orders a preparation for an evacuation before Churchill did in OTL and is careful to issue instructions to take British troops first before French. Like most UK politicians of that time, he is untrusting of the French. Once the French surrender and establish Vichy, he is quick to take over the French ships in British ports – most of the French navy.

Mussolini declares war as per OTL. Machiavelli acts faster than the Italians and moves a large part of the RN to the Med, while launching a land invasion of Libya. The purpose is to make it impossible for the Germans to back up their allies, while cutting the rest of the Italian Empire off from its homeland. The invasion succeeds – although the British take a battering in lower Africa – and the British can then spend the next few months clearing up the rest of the Italian Empire.

Machiavelli’s next step is to safeguard the rest of the empire. He begins large-scale conscription of Africans and Libyans for troops for Britain. In OTL, these measures were rejected due to South African fears and Churchill’s blinders, here they strengthen the empire. Further, Machiavelli works with the conservative Indians (mainly their princes and industrialists) to establish a government for the Dominion of India. Britain gets responsibility for defense; the right to recruit troops and is the favored trading partner of India. The Indian conservative government gets the rest.

As a practical measure, the Indian activists like Gandhi, Nehru and Jinnah would have a fit – but there’s not much they can do. The new Indian government is not keen on suggestions that the British should go entirely – most of the princes have just been made members of the British house of lords (and they don’t want any suggestions that they should give up their titles) – and they make that clear to them. Religious fighting is stamped on with great enthusiasm.

Once Italy is forced out of Africa, deals are made with Egypt, Libya, Ethiopia and the other African colonies along similar lines. (Apart from Suez remaining in exclusive British hands) This reduces the British problems and holds them to the new, informal, empire.

Machiavelli next turns to America. He withholds full details of the British position from FDR, but makes it clear that Britain is on the ropes. He presents FDR with a stark choice: either support Britain in every way short of direct military support and joining the war – or Britain would make peace with Hitler. He makes dire threats about the possibility of Britain returning the French ships or even being forced to hand over some of her own ships. FDR uses this as an excuse to buildup the US production systems and ship supplies to Britain – free.

Hitler heads east in 1941, a month or so earlier than OTL. Stalin demands help from Britain, but the British make him pay for the aid. Meanwhile, the British are preparing to meet a Japanese attack on the Far East, but with a radically different strategy than OTL.

Britain uses the new African troops to garrison the East Indies and part of Singapore. The main body of British and Indian troops are in Burma and India, while the Australians and South Africans are dug in on Australia. Machiavelli fully expects that the Japanese will kill most of the exposed troops quickly, but their sacrifice will buy time for the rest of the empire to focus on the new threat.

On the naval side, Machiavelli has appointed one of Britain's best commanders to the Far East. Admiral Cunningham has most of Britain’s fleet of new ships, a strong air contingent and a large submarine force. The British have identified Japan's main weakness and plan to exploit it as much as they can. Japan strikes at Pearl Harbor as OTL, then attacks Hong Kong and Singapore.

Unluckily for Japan, they are forced to storm both places. While Singapore is untenable, the British troops hold out for several months and slow down the Japanese attacks considerably, while the submarines attack the Japanese fleet and merchant ships. Soon, the British also launch a reliving force from Burma towards Siam and force that unhappy nation out of the war, while putting huge pressure on the Japanese forces. Singapore soon falls, but the British can recover it within a month.

The Japanese forces remain aggressive and attack the US/British fleet at Australia. The allies defeat them and sink much of the Japanese force. The Americans then launch an island hopping campaign to take the Japanese new conquests away, while the British mop up in Burma and Malaya.

On the Eastern Front, the Germans have narrowly escaped disaster at Stalingrad, engaging the Russians in a freewheeling battle over the steppes. Meanwhile, the Americans want to press into Europe as soon as possible, but Machiavelli is blocking that. He knows that the British cannot afford heavy losses and demands that the Americans put most of their forces into the invasion. The Americans reluctantly agree to defer landings until early 1944.

Machiavelli has a different problem. If Germany collapses, Stalin will take most of Europe, therefore he works hard to convince FDR to guarantee Poland’s independence and that of the Balkans if they switch sides. FDR tends to agree and makes a public declaration of the right of the smaller nations to keep their 1939 borders. Finland (which is not at war with the UK in ATL) starts secret talks with the west for switching sides.

When 1944 starts, Japan is in a position that would, in any sensible nation, be a cause for surrender. They have been forced out of Indochina and the East Indies. Their navy is practically destroyed. Even the Chinese have scored a few victories against the Japanese army. The Japanese, however, prepare to dig in on their home Islands and fight to the finish.

The Germans, however, are a different problem. They’ve narrowly avoided a disaster at Stalingrad and are fighting it out with Russian forces in the Steppes. Hitler is building forces in France to fight an allied landing, but he suspects that the west is waiting for him to destroy the USSR before invading France. Much as Machiavelli would like to do that, he can’t, as FDR is becoming stingy on the American aid. A mainly American force lands in France in May 1944.

British forces land in Vichy France and fight to establish themselves. Machiavelli has publicly declared the Vichy French to be collaborators and orders a purge of captured French politicians. This is intended to remove much of the anti-British Frenchmen from power, while diverting German attention from the American landings.

Machiavelli is looking for a silver bullet – something to end the war quickly. Britain is still in a precarious position, what they need is a way to end the war and defeat Hitler, while keeping the Germans as a barrier between Britain and the USSR. As Britain becomes more involved in the American advance towards Germany, he orders offers of a truce to be broadcast towards Germany – if Hitler is removed from power.

As Germany’s position weakens, someone will take him up on the offer. Field Marshall Rommel is the first and he overthrows Hitler, causing enough confusion to take power. That leaves the US with a problem, but they finally begin peace talks.

Germany has to withdraw back to its 1938 borders. Poland gets a ton of German weapons and advisors from Britain and France. The various groups in the subordinate SSRs get weapons from the Germans as well, plus some quiet support from Britain and the US.

Japan and Italy surrender after the Germans do, although Japan takes a week or two longer. The peace leaves China with all of its territory except Hong Kong and Taiwan, taken by a British attack.

Aftermath: There is no cold war. Britain and America have a falling out almost at once, with a bitter war of words and many threats. War does not come, partly because many Americans need the British orders for their businesses in the post-war stump.

The British Empire slowly takes on an Indo-African tint. As the racial barriers break down (often in Britain proper before some of the Indian states, ironically), the empire becomes led by Indians and Africans, simply because they have the largest populations. The troops recruited in Africa came back to their nations with high expectations and the rights often denied them, often overthrowing corrupt white systems.

In 2000, the British Empire is growing more prosperous. It is still a ramshackle system, but its improved beyond measure. The only downside is that it may one day have to go to war against United Europe.

But that, as they say, is another story….