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Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM |
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This Day in Alternate History Blog
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Stalin’s Sparrows
What Really Happened:
The USSR ended WW2 with an empire in all, but name, composed of the
Warsaw pact nations, Poland, East Germany (which came later), Czechoslovakia,
Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Albania. All
of these nations were forced to turn communist and would later be the cause of
the soviet downfall as their people started to question their devotion to
communism. Stalin saw these captive nations
as blessings, but they were really serious problems.
Quite apart from two dictators managing to break out of the soviet hold,
they cost the USSR millions in subsidies and garrisoning cost – and their
existence reduced western goodwill, which was very high after WW2.
That meant that the USSR needed to spend hard and scarce cash on a huge
army, which could face down the more advanced west, and was a net drain on the
USSR’s economy. There was, however, a possible
alternative. Finland, which had
been beaten down in 1944, had been allowed to retain limited independence.
What if Stalin had allowed the Warsaw pact nations similar status? What Might Have Happened:
Let assume that Stalin realises just how much the USSR will be drained by
the need to hold and prop up satellite states.
He therefore, negocates with the governments concerned, communist or
otherwise, and draws up the Warsaw Treaty, which has the following terms: 1) The States concerned will sign no treaty with any foreign power that includes a military alliance or troop-basing agreements, apart from the USSR, 2) The states will allow the USSR unlimited transit rights through their territory to East Germany, 3) The states will place no tariffs on soviet goods, nor will they buy from anyone else if the USSR has goods that fit the requirements, 4) The states will sell resources and goods to the USSR at favorable prices, 5) The states will send a eighth of their harvest to the USSR gratis, 6) The states will under no circumstances be allowed nuclear weapons, 7) The states may not go to war with each other, regardless of circumstances, 8)
The states may have whatever government they want, provided that the
government swears to uphold the treaty. The various exile governments
are not fools. They know that signing the agreement means that they will be at
soviet mercy for the foreseeable future, but they can’t see anyway of escaping
soviet domination in any case. Therefore,
they agree. VE-Day sees a large mass of
soviet forces in East Germany and small garrisons over Poland and the Baltic
states. The soviets largely hand
over power to the natives, where possible trying to influence matters so that
communists come out on top, and withdraw most of their forces.
Poland, Hungary and Romania have governments with a strong communist
presence, while Czechoslovakia has a fully communist government.
However, they are not united to the USSR and receive little support from
Stalin. The Soviets and the western
allies make their arrangements for Germany.
Stalin uses the soviet withdrawal from Eastern Europe to influence the
number of troops that the allies deploy in Germany; successfully persuading the
three allies to restrict their forces to one army group each.
This worked out in the allies favour as their three-army groups could
overwhelm the soviet single group before reinforcements could arrive from the
USSR. The French, with British
support, rebuilt their army so that the west would have powerful forces within
easy reach of Germany if the soviets decided to cause trouble. The Eastern states were in an
interesting position. They were
always very aware that the USSR could simply march over their territory if
Stalin gave the order; therefore they concentrated on building up their own
forces. The soviets earned a great
deal of hard cash from selling older T-34 tanks to Poland and the other nations.
The nations also began quiet staff talks between themselves for common
action if Stalin did decide to invade. The west public opinion was more
favourable to the USSR than at any other moment.
Instead of occupying the territory they had crossed, the USSR had
restored their freedom. Sure, it
was limited, but it was better than direct domination by the soviets.
The western businesses became very eager to trade with the soviets. The European colonies, which
were beginning to break free of their chains, were quite impressed.
The Algerians, which in OTL had feared soviet intentions and kept them at
arms-length, were here willing to take all the weapons that they could get.
The war for Algeria got far more bloodier than OTL and the French blamed
the Russians for it. Communist
parties in France were attacked by the crowds. The real net winner in this is
the USSR. Without the major
military build-up that happened in 1949-80, the USSR had more money to spend on
improving itself. Standards of
living begin to rise slowly, but surely, and the Russian people begin to have
sufficient food. The USSR can also
compete more effectively in space than in OTL. When the USSR invents nuclear
arms, Stalin attempts to make deals about the number that each side could have
with the US. As neither side can
see a pressing need for masses of nuclear weapons, there is an agreement.
The two states can each have up to a thousand nuclear warheads, while
there is an agreement to work together to restrict the other nations from
gaining nuclear weapons. A joint
British-French team manages to create a nuclear weapon in 1954, reflecting their
resentment against their former ally, the two uneasy partners work to create a
European Union. No other nation
manages to develop nuclear warheads, apart from Israel, which became the second
nation to use nukes in anger. There
are also treaties about the type of delivery systems permitted, cruse missiles
are banned, while bombers and ICBMs are permitted, but only in limited numbers. There is no Czechoslovakian,
Hungarian or Cuban Missile crisis in this timeline.
However, there are two other smaller crises to threaten the world, the
satellite over flight crisis and the space-based weapons crisis.
The US managed to launch the first satellite in 1956, which orbited the
world and flew over the USSR. The
general secretary, Molotov, lodged a strong complaint with the US about the over
flight. Relations between the two
superpowers were cold for a time, until the USSR’s space program noticed that
they would need to over-fly US territory as well.
Molotov, apparently reluctantly, agreed to future over-flights.
The space-based weapons crisis was far more serious. In 1969, the nation of Israel
and the various Arab states went to war once again.
This time, Israel was determined to win a decisive victory and had a new
weapon to ensure success. Without
any possibility of superpower intervention – or so they thought – and with
their backs covered by secret agreements with Britain, France, Greece and Turkey
(the only Muslim state to support Israel openly), they prepared for a lightning
war. Faced with provocation from
Egypt, they launched the final Arab-Israeli war, and launched a blitzkrieg
towards the Suez Canal, while deploying their secret weapon, a nuclear bomb,
onto the Egyptian command and control base, wiping out the Egyptian leadership.
Despite – or perhaps because of – the loss of the high command, the
Egyptian troops fought well and held up the isreaeli offensive, which proved to
be decisive. Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Syria and
Saudi Arabia declared war on Israel and launched several attacks into Israel.
Despite being outclassed by the Israeli troops, the absence of the best
Israeli units meant that they made progress into Israel, causing a Israeli
panic. They used their other
nuclear device against Damascus, which caused a matching Arab panic, and
appealed for US intervention. After
much debate and arm-twisting, the president of the US decided to interfere. The US had secretly deployed a
space-based weapon system: project THOR. This
basically consisted of small projectiles that had a small motor attached that
were dropped from orbit. The US
used those to smash the Arab tank coloums.
The soviets were very annoyed with the US, as they had believed that the
US had not deployed such a system, and demanded that the system was removed.
War seemed more likely then than at any minute since WW2. What prevented war was that the
only real option left to the superpowers was nuclear war.
The soviets suspected that the US had also deployed an ABM system and
local defences for its two space stations (the USSR had one).
No one in the USSR wanted to fight on those terms and, when the general
secretary prepared for war, overthrew him.
The two sides deployed troops to bring peace to the Middle East and
stripped Israel of its nuclear weapons plant. The USSR survived to the present
time, although it is much changed over the years.
The presence of capitalist nations near Russia caused an influx of
western ideas, which led to a steady pressure from its people for more
democratic control. The USSR now
allows opposition parties and had granted a high degree of autonomy to the
Ukraine and the other ‘Russian’ territories.
True democraticicy looks set to appear soon. Authors Notes:
This came out of a challenge about how the USSR could have survived to
the present day. While there were
hundreds of problems with the USSR, the main killer (in my opinion) was the
50%odd GNP spent on the military. This
is also true of the US, but the higher GNP and the ability to adapt US military
products to civilian use offset that factor by some degree.
Just how much money was spent on the cold war remains unknown, although
one estimate says that the two cold war sides spent in excess of $8 Trillion on
nuclear weapons alone. That sum
could have been used elsewhere. So, we have the cost of
occupation forces offset by using a barrier of neutral states as a cordon round
the USSR. This not only improves
the USSR’s economy, but also improves its prestige and dims the cold war.
There is no iron curtain in this timeline.
While who would be the general secretary in ATL is unknown and
unknowable, Molotov would be the logical choice in a world were the USSR fights
using diplomatic skills, rather than the “we shall bury you” style
practiced by Khrushchev. That money has to go elsewhere
and space is perhaps the best bet for that money to be used.
A more serious soviet effort means that the US will also have to develop
its own space technology, with proper space stations and the first real space
launch. Project THOR is a real idea
proposed by Jerry Pournelle and is the simplest form of space-based weapon that
could be used against ground targets. As
this would defeat the idea of a cordon sanitare, the USSR could be
expected to object to its use. This
timeline has a far greater presence in space, which I would expect the US to
win, with moonbases and missions to mars by 2000. There will, however, be a
serious falling out between Britain and France on one side and the US on the
other. I can’t see the French
allowing the US to dictate to them, particuly when nukes are regarded as a
status symbol, and the British will probably feel the same way.
The two nations do have the ability to build nukes, so a joint project is
not unlikely. France would have
also helped out Israel with its nuclear program.
Look for the EU to become more united and more powerful, sort of a
twisted version of the Confederate states without slavery.
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