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Strike North

The Germans had really only one chance to defeat the allied powers after 1941; they had to capture Moscow. The problem with that rosy scenario was that the Germans were nearly exhausted by the time that they reached Moscow, while the Soviets could throw several divisions of Siberian troops, the best in the Red Army, into the battle at the crucial moment. Clearly, in order to allow the Germans their best chance of winning World War Two, those troops have to be ‘otherwise occupied’. The best way to keep them away from the war front is to have them engaged in operations against another power – Japan.

To emprises how important this is, let us look at a historical incident from World War One. In the early weeks of that war, the Germans sent about four units of the German army from the France Front to the Russian front, missing both the battle of the Marne and the Battle of Tannenburg, being en transit when those two battles happened and therefore took no part in either. This little mishap may well have cost Germany the war. This same consideration worried the soviet leaders as they fought to stem the German tide.

Unfortunately, the Japanese leaders were none too keen on the idea of an offensive into Russia. They had suffered a defeat that would discourage even the most hardened fanatic from trying again; even through they do want living space of their own. However, the men on the ground – the Kwangtung Army – were determined to attempt to regain their honour and defeat the Russians.

As we all know, the ‘strike south’ faction won the conflict. This led to Japan becoming embroiled with the United States and its defeat in 1945. Now, what might have happened if the Japanese had gone north instead?

Hitler invaded Russia on the 22^nd of June 1941. This came as a complete surprise to the Japanese, who had not been informed about the invasion, and who finally decided to abandon the opportunity presented. Now, lets assume that the caution of admiral Yamamoto convinces the Japanese that they must, if they must, go north.

Therefore, lets have the Japanese invade Vladivostok in September, just before the Germans begin their march on Moscow. The soviets have already pulled a few divisions out of the area, so the attack should come as a rude shock. Furthermore, the Japanese attack not only from the land, but from the sea as well, as Japanese battleships bombard the Russian naval base and destroy the Russian Far East fleet. Vladivostok falls after a short siege in mid-September.

The Japanese learn a number of lesions and therefore urgently request German advisors. Their tanks are puny compared to the soviet ones and they also need to develop better doctrine. They are forced to press captured soviet tanks into service. The Japanese do have absolute air dominance after the first week, as their aircraft are much better than the Russian ones – although they do have to strip some of their carriers of aircraft in order to cover the much larger airspace.

The Japanese also launch small amphibious assaults on the other soviet settlements and ports, hoping to block off the flow of lend-lease from America. This provokes a storm of complaints from President Roosevelt, but the Japanese offer an apology, and the US is forced to accept the new situation. Lead lease now has to go the Scandinavian route, where the Germans can get at it. The Iranian route, while safer than the other two, is not particularly logistically feasible, due to the allies shipping problems, while America has fewer supplies to offer in this TL.

Why, you might ask? Firstly, there’s no attack on Pearl Harbour and the Far East to unite America against the axis. Further, the lack of the attack means that FDR does not have a blank check to build-up American industries for war, while, without that, the total number of weapons and other supplies is smaller than in OTL, although the Americans do send what they can. However, the closing of the eastern route and the hazards of the northern route further limits what can be sent. FDR can’t declare war and therefore can’t order American ships into danger zones, while the US navy does help out in the Atlantic, they can’t do much more to relieve the RN.

Throughout November, the Germans besiege Moscow and then invade it. The soviets have almost no forces left to defend the city from outside, but the NKVD forces people to dig trenches and hold out to the last man. Stalin tries to escape (I flipped a coin here) and is killed by a stay bullet. The Germans manage to occupy the city as winter approaches.

The American aid to the soviets has become half-hearted. There are several reasons for this, but the main one is the Japanese discovery of gulags and other camps in Siberia. The Japanese manage to recruit many of those men into their forces, while some of them have technical knowledge that can be useful to the Japanese. There was always a strong anti-communist element in the US politics; these forces put pressure on FDR to reduce aid and to direct it either to China or to the UK.

The Soviet forces regroup in the east beyond Moscow under the leadership of a committee of Molotov and Beria. The war then becomes two years of brutal struggle across Russia as the Germans attempt to seize Stalingrad and the oil wells, with the Russians attempting to push them back. The Russian forces are declining in power as the Germans kill most of the ethnic Russian manpower and they conscript people from the rest of the USSR, many of whom desert to the Germans or their allies.

Hitler is killed by a Russian spymaster in 1943. His nominal successor, Goring, starts peace talks with the Soviets, finally coming to an agreement in which Germany keeps western Russia, Stalingrad and the oil wells. Germany also gets air-transit rights to Iran, where they take the soviet section, and Japan. This threatens to break the fragile back of the British Empire, and the British therefore open peace talks with Germany, finally conceding the German dominance of Europe, although they keep most of their empire. Goring demands German East Africa back as a sign of victory.

With the end of the war in the west, Japan discovers that the USSR is still a tough foe. The Japanese have learned lesions about using their tanks properly, as well as upgrading their tanks and aircraft, but they still need to spend their men like water to stem the soviet attacks. The two sides finally come to a truce agreement, but the Chinese have been using the time the war took to rebuild their armies and launch a counterattack. The Japanese war in china would end in 1950, when the Chinese would force them out of China for good.

Author’s Notes: This is the story of a nazi victory, perhaps the only Barbarossa victory possible. However, I do need to note a few points.

The Soviets are in serious trouble after the fall of Moscow. Quite apart from the death of their unquestioned leader, they’ve lost a major communications hub, considerable prestige, and lost many of the people who keep the Soviet Union going. The result will be utter chaos until the next leader manages to re-establish control over the people, while the Germans will hold more soviet territory and industry. In that case, I can see the soviets making a separate peace and leaving the war. They accept the huge losses because they’ve no real choice.

The British, therefore, fight alone. The US is unwilling to assist them in the only way that matters, while their other ‘assistance’ is draining British financial power and slowly bringing the British Empire under US dominance. The US, in effect, is taking power over Britain without responsibility. Further, the collapse of the USSR means that Germany will be able to concentrate more power on the Western Desert and the Middle East, while Italy is slowly fixing its problems and getting tougher. The British can probably take the rest of Iran off the soviets (through, if I were Goring, I’d make part of the treaty keeping the British away until German occupation forces arrive), but they can’t build defences in time to prevent the main German army heading down and causing revolution in both Iran and Iraq, while the Turks would be very tempted to join the Nazis or take their old lands before the nazis arrive. Britain needs to make peace here unless the US immediately declares war, or their empire will collapse completely, while Japan can attack India or supply Indian nationalists. The British concede so much simply because there’s no choice.

This victory would be a costly one for Japan. They’d have taken huge casusties and spent lots of treasure on taking whatever they get from the Soviet Far East. They won’t be in shape for another war for some time; meanwhile, they’ll have financial problems and a constant war in China. My guess is that the Japanese will continue trying to crush the Chinese and not succeeding until the death toll gets so high that they’ll withdraw to Manchuria and just keep a few easily defended places.