Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

To win the battle: France wins the battle of France in 1940

Christopher G. Nuttall

There are a number of rules I set for the competition and therefore I need to follow them. The POD is in 1939, just after the Invasion of Poland.

Introduction

France does not have a very good record in World War Two, they did nothing to help their polish ally and then waited mutely – aside from a brief Norwegian exhibition – until the Germans invaded in 1940. After a month full of astounding military victories for the Germans, and the great shame of France, the French set up an armistice and a government that was effectively a collaborator. However, could the French have made a better showing in the fight? Lets study the relevant factors.

Problems with the French forces and strategy

1) The Maginot Line

France had staked everything on the Maginot line, a line of fortifications, that they had somehow managed to forget to extend to cover the Belgium border (or even to have it cover the Belgium/Germany border). If they had put those resources into tanks instead, they might have been able to match the Germans or even to have hit them while they were digesting Poland. Clausewitz was entirely correct:

"If you entrench yourself behind strong fortifications, you compel the enemy to seek a solution elsewhere."

Another possibility from that is the Germans coming straight at the line and not bothering with an invasion of Belgium. This is probably the best case for France, but I have no idea how that battle could end.

2) Air Power

France and Britain, while they both fielded modern fighters, had little idea of how aircraft could be used aggressively, and were therefore unable to counter the Skuka until it was too late. Additional fighters and better-trained pilots might just remove the German aircraft advantage, but this ran the risk of uncovering Britain. Skuka’s were very vulnerable to fighters though, and this will force the Germans to use their fighters to cover the bombers instead of strafing French columns.

On a similar note, few divisions, French or British, had much in the way of anti-aircraft guns. Given that the Skuka can be easily hit when it is in a dive, it would not take an expert to hit it and cause it to crash. Better anti-aircraft forces could have delayed the fall of the Belgium and Dutch forts and delayed the Germans significantly.

3) Tanks

French tanks were not as outclassed as most people believe; the problem was more in the lack of radios, range and doctrine. Better tanks, massed together, could have countered the Panzers, even if we assume the Germans still have an edge, they’ll be held back or slowed down by having to adapt themselves.

If the ideas of Basil Liddell-Hart (and supposedly Charles De Gaulle) were adopted en masse, the French would have been much better prepared to fight tank-to-tank rather than being hypnotised by the power of the panzers. Humm, perhaps if the French observers in Poland did better at their jobs…

4) Morale

French morale was low, primarily due to the lack of action and the depressing news from Poland. Communist propaganda was also blamed. Some small pushes against the Germans could have raised morale while not risking too much.

If that was too risky, training sessions and morale boosting events could have installed a sense of comradeship. Seeing incompetent officers exposed in war games and shot would have been great for morale and the training could only have helped. Cutting out corruption would have improved the lot of the troops and culled officers who were likely to accept German bribes to surrender.

5) Communications/Radar

The French communications network was pathetic, right down to the single units up to the high commend, who even fled to a villa that had NO radio or signals equipment. Purchasing a large amount of radios from the US might well have solved that problem. Imagine the French actually know where each unit was and could co-ordinate in real time!

There is very little information of the French development of radar, but the British did have an active set at the time and they used this to help win the battle of Britain. Advance warning of inbound aircraft could have helped out the French a great deal.

6) Strategic surprise

No one in the French command believed that the Germans could get heavy forces though the Ardennes forest. If they anticipate this and get even a small force up into position, they could slow the Germans down long enough to allow a proper defence line to be formed.

7) Lack of an alliance with Belgium

If the French had had time to get into a defensible line in Belgium, either by invitations or invasion, they’d have made the Germans very worried indeed. However, the Belgium government decided to opt for neutrality and refused to allow any joint planning. A stronger French commitment to war could have kept them on the French side and integrated into the war plans.

8) Defeatism

The French command and government almost gave up completely after the first blow, proving Kyle right when he talked about if you believe you are defeated, you are. If they had been more resolute, they may have been able to impose some degree of influence on the crumbling army and reformed it for another battle.

Worse, defeatism led French forces to surrender instead of trying to cut their way out of encirclement. If the forces had fought on, they might have delayed the Germans while they crushed them. On a very cold-blooded note, the more French equipment that the Germans destroy is equipment the Germans cannot use.

9) Italy

Mussolini’s attack probably had little effect on the tactical/ strategic situation, but it helped convince the French that the war was lost. If he had not attacked, they might have hung on longer. A resolute stance in Africa or some border concessions might have been enough to buy his neutrality.

10) Supplies

The Germans had counted upon being able to capture allied supplies to fuel their panzers. I’m unsure how much this happened, but a scorched earth policy would have crippled the German forces if that were indeed the case.

11) Battle Plans

The Germans changed their plans because of a freak plane crash that handed the allies an intelligence bonza in the shape of the German plans. If they had not done so, the Germans would have launched themselves straight into the French defences. That would allow the French the satisfaction of having correctly predicted the target point and allow them to fight the sort of battle they think they want to fight.

12) The Soviet Connection

Britain and France muffed their contacts with soviet Russia – muffed them so much that the latter practically joined the Germans. If German had been a little more unsure of the soviet reaction, they might have kept some forces in Poland and the east to counter a soviet pre-emptive attack. On another note, if the Germans do get bogged down in France, the Russians might just take the opportunity to squeeze the Germans over supplies they need and the Balkan territory.

13) Peace Terms?

One problem with Hitler’s attitude to France was that the allies were demanding the reconstruction of Poland as a pre-condition for peace, something he could not deliver anyway, as Stalin was occupying half of it. Less stringent allied terms might have caused him to consider postponing the attack or only allowing limited objectives, such as the seizure of Alsace-Lorraine.

14) North Africa

One final thing: What if the French government, the navy and as much of the French army as possible fled to North Africa instead of surrendering and forming the Vichy government? With the French forces in Algeria, the allies could have mopped up the Italians before the Germans could have become involved. This would have changed the whole course of the war.

Point of Divergence

When the Germans attack Poland, the French throw an armed force across the border into the German west wall.

The Campaign

The French had no idea about the new way of warfare or about how fast Poland would fall to the Germans, therefore they had planned a mobilisation and an attack two weeks (obviously, they did not tell Poland that) after the Germans hit the Poles. That, they calculated, would be time for all the German forces to be committed to Poland and for the poles to have damaged them without risking French blood. Needless to say, it did not work out quite that way.

The disaster of the campaign leads to a political crises in France. The Prime Minister and President are both forced to resign, and the debate begins as to who should replace them. Finally, a compromise candidate from the ‘near-right’, Flandin, is chosen as France’s leader. Voted dictatorial powers by the government, the new leader has to act quickly to stop France going down with Poland.

He takes the war much more seriously than any other French leader, and begins a large number of changes. He orders Radar sets from Britain to act as an early warning system and radio sets from the US to help keep the government in touch with the armed forces. Its not as good as the German system (for reasons which were epidemic to the French forces at the time) but its so much better than anything the French had before that everyone is delighted.

Flandin also gets tough on the Belgium government. With the concurrence of Britain, he tells them to allow the French in now and joint defence planning with the army. The ‘or else’ is simple: if Belgium refuses to allow this, France will not come to the rescue when (if) the Germans attack. Belgium refuses to get involved and orders the border defences ready, but no formal alliance. On the quiet, there is some secret joint planning, but there is a limit to what the French can do quickly. The US economy gets a boost as the Belgiums purchase modern fighters and weapons off them.

There are basically six ways to invade France. Though, Spain, Italy and Switzerland can probably be ruled out. Nether Franco or Mussolini are willing to risk everything to help out the Germans and can be bought off if necessary. The Swiss are good fighters and the terrain would slow down any German advance to a halt.

The remaining three are deadly. Though Belgium nearly doomed France in 1940 and the fixed defence line does not cover that border. Any battle fought there would be done in France's main industrial area, which could have problems for French recovery after the war, and have serious consequences for the war if the industry was destroyed. Directly across the border is direct into the Maginot line, the teeth of the French defences and something Germany, since First Verdun, is presumed unwilling to do, which leaves going though the Ardennes. He orders plans drawn up to meet a thrust though the Ardennes if it happens.

The Germans attack Norway on schedule. The winter war still happens and Britain and France still attempt to help out, sparking Hitler's paranoia and ordering the invasion of Norway in response. The difference is that Flandin clearly sees the danger and refuses to allow more than a token French division to go to Norway. This attack does convince the Belgium’s that the French were serious about no aiding them and they order their garrisons reinforced and ask formally for aid. The British send a few squadrons of RAF aircraft, but the French do very little. Chamberlain is blamed for the crisis and is replaced by Churchill.

The German’s kick off the attack on Belgium, Luxembourg, Holland and France as planned, on May 10^th. However, the situation in Belgium is very different, as the Belgium’s are dug in and ready and waiting. This does not stop the Germans completely, but it slows them down by a few days. The Fortress of Eben Emael falls on 19^th may, holding out for a week, and convincing the French that the Maginot line can look after itself for long enough for the French tank forces to be used elsewhere. Flandin faces a political crisis, but is clever enough to hold off demands to support Belgium or to reinforce the Maginot line.

Meanwhile, the Germans have been busy sneaking though the Ardennes. However, the French have anticipated this move and order their air force to bomb them. They do reasonably well, however the German fighters are better and manage to prevent the French from causing too much damage. Delays swiftly begin to mount, however, and they only reach Sedan by 15^th May, where the French have dug in and are waiting for them. A river crossing is dangerous under the best conditions and, in OTL, the French very nearly stopped them from crossing. In ATL, the French are ready and waiting and they smash the German attempt at crossing. After a long battle, both sides are exhausted, but the Germans have been held on the far bank of the River Meuse.

Hitler goes apocalyptic, and orders a stronger push, but the army generals manage to dissuade him. The French and Germans are fighting for dominance in the air over Sedan and if the Germans lose their forces and supplies will be torn to ribbons. Far better, they say, to urge Italy to attack the French and finish occupying Belgium, Luxembourg and Holland. Not mollified, Hitler finally agrees and tones down the attacks on Sedan to convince the French that nothing important is happening there now. Reconcentring on the Netherlands, Hitler forces their surrender by 20^th may, the British risking ships to evacuate much of the Dutch army, and successfully occupies them.

Once Belgium falls, The Germans begin a push down from Belgium into France, wreaking havoc with the French forces. However, French morale is higher now and they also have most of the BEF to back them up. Lord Gort is a tough defensive fighter and his forces are not convinced that they’ve lost. The French manage to stabilise the lines and hold the Germans back. After much of the hard fighting, Hitler is reluctant to risk any more of the panzer divisions in France. Germany still holds bits of France, but they have not won the war yet.

After much arm-twisting, Hitler convinces Mussolini to enter the war, which he does on 30th May. The Italians launch attacks into Egypt, Malta and Eastern France. Egypt is invaded and the British manage to blunt the Italian attack at Sidi Barrini, while Malta does fall (there’s next to nothing to stop the Italians at that point on the island), the attack into France is stopped dead by the French defences. That’s pretty much what happened in OTL even with the lines crumbling against the Germans. The French forces in Algeria stab the Italians in the back and invade Libya, while the British counter attack in Egypt. By 6^th June, the Italian presence in North Africa has been destroyed.

The Royal and French navies chase the Italian battlefleet across the Mediterranean. It’s a contest of numbers and battleships and the allies hold the advantage here. The Germans send some aircraft and the Italian air force does better than you might expect, but most of the Italian navy is sunk by June 15^th. After such losses, the Mussolini government falls and Mussolini flees to Germany.

The Germans now face other troubles. The Soviets are demanding more as the price for their support, they want more power in the Balkans and increased technology transfers. The Germans are furious, but they are not in a position to object loudly. The allies are courting Stalin, who is quite willing to double-cross Hitler, but he wants parts of Iran and a free hand against Finland as compensation for his efforts.

At this point in time, Hitler is still part rational. He knows that the attack on France has failed. He knows that its likely that he will be blamed for the failure. Therefore, he orders diplomatic communications with the French, offering a truce.

The Germans want their control of Poland, Belgium, Norway, Denmark, Luxembourg and Holland confirmed. They are willing to make a withdrawal from French territory and even offer France the French-speaking parts of Belgium. Ideally, they would like Italy’s African territories returned and some of their pre-WW1 colonies back. There is a threat to their offer. If the French don’t agree, they should soon be able to build-up enough of a panzer force again to crack Gort’s line and turn most of France into a battleground. They also threaten to bomb Paris and other French cites in retaliation for the bombing of Freigburg, which they thought had been bombed on 10^th May by the allies, really a group of German planes that got lost and bombed their own side by mistake (this happened in OTL).

The French want the Germans out of their newly conquered territories, at least out of Belgium, Luxembourg, Holland and the bits of France that they’ve taken. They also want the Italians to suffer for their attack on France and therefore they want to keep Libya. They are unwilling to allow the Germans back into any of their old colonies. The British merely want the war over as soon as possible. There have been disturbing suggestions from Germany that Hitler might be able to talk Stalin into attacking Iran and taking it off Britain. The only forces there are small colonial forces and they could not hope to stand up to a modern army. Even the most anti-soviet Briton knows that the soviets improved a great deal in the last weeks of the winter war and that they handed out a sound thrashing to the Japanese in 1939.

The tacit truce continues until July 1940, when the French launch an attack intended to recover the lost territory near Belgium. The attack shows promise at first, but the German defences give it a rough handling and General Charles de Gaulle is forced to withdraw back to the lines. The defences have been weakened as most of the BEF has been pulled out (replaced by most of the forces in Africa) to go to Iran.

Working though Sweden, the two sides come to a limited peace deal. Churchill is soundly against any deal with Hitler, but the British have less influence in France as most of their forces have gone and the French don’t want to fight for much longer. This does cause a slight problem as all of Germany’s old colonies are in British hands and the French can’t give them back if they wanted too. The peace, which is signed on September 12^th, 1940, is simple. France recovers all her lost territory and a small slice of Belgium. Hitler keeps Belgium, Luxembourg, Holland, although they have to remain demilitarised. Norway is handed back her independence and becomes a British protectorate. France also gives Germany one of her colonies, Indochina (Vietnam) as a poisoned chalice. Both the Japanese and the nationalists have become more unruly and, if the war breaks out again, it would be easy for the French to take it back. World War Two is over.

With Germany freed from her collision with France, Stalin rapidly reduces the level of pressure he has been exerting on the Balkans and the Middle East. He also is prepared to offer Hitler what supplies he can in order to restore Germany’s power to hurt France. Just in case. Hitler, however, sees his defeat in racial terms and he thinks that the USSR would be an easier target; meanwhile some members of the German power structure see their defeat as something to do with their leader and plan to remove him. German is no longer safe for Hitler.

Aftermath

Germany: I suspect that the Germans will have a change of government soon, even without a humiliating peace like Versailles. Hitler’s position is weaker now that in OTL. Worse, the German stocks of war material are very low, only enough for two or so months of operations against a modern enemy. Revolts in Belgium, Poland and Denmark threaten German control. The even worse news is that Hitler soon discovers how difficult a county like Indochina can be to control, and the Japanese have their eyes on it. Hitler may soon be forced to fight the Japanese – which would be logistically impossible – or to sell Indochina to them. As 1942 rolls in, he is considering that option seriously.

France: France feels much better than in OTL (although almost anything would be better) and is more confident than in OTL. On the other hand, the selling of Indochina has caused a falling out with Britain and there are still arguments over the division of former Italian territory.

Britain: The recent war has shown in clear light many of the deflects of the British Empire, even thought the war was victorious, the British are unable to rush forces all over the empire to respond to threats. A sizable Japanese threat in the Far East and a Soviet threat to Iran mean that the empire has to remain mobilized. The best step would be to grant some limited form of self-rule to India and therefore keep her in the empire.

America: The Americans had a brief economic boom when the allies started purchasing lots of arms for the war, which soon went when the war stopped. However, they are worried about Japan and start to build-up in the Far East themselves.

The Future: what do I see coming?

-There may well be a war between Germany and the Soviet Union at some point, but will it be Hitler who starts it?

-Will Japan still attack Pearl Harbour, or will she just ignore the allied provocation?

-Who will get nukes first? The massive growth of the American and German science projects has not happened, so that is up in the air.

-Will there be another German-French war or will they have learnt their lesson?

The whys and wherefores

As I see history, there were two really important actions in the battle of France, Gamelin’s rush into Belgium and the battle of Sedan when the Germans crossed the Meuse. The rush into Belgium was not fatal on its own, but it distracted attention from the Sedan front. Once the defences at Sedan were breached, and there was very little there to stop that from happening, the Germans had free reign for a number of days. Possibly not fatal, but very serious.

Even in OTL, the Italians were handed their heads in Africa, with the French as well, the campaign won’t take very long and will end with an allied victory. The Germans will be in no position to assist their ally and I have grave doubts about Italy joining under such conditions.

Flandin is real. He was the only major French politician to urge military action in 1936, and remained a French patriot throughout the rest of his life, even though he became tainted with the Vichy brush in OTL.

Would the allies make peace with the Nazis? I suspect that its more that France would make the peace and Britain would be forced to go along with it. Where would they put their army? Look at it from France’s point of view. They’ve just smashed the Germans main chance of conquering France. Their morale is much higher than in OTL. They’ve even added to the empire in Africa. But…. They don’t have the resources to fight to the finish, a war that would cost thousands of French lives and for what? More economic trouble and the need to fight it again? They’ll make peace if they can.

Readings and Sources

Alistair Horne’s To Lose a Battle provided much of the inspiration and a very useful description of the battles. Other sources that were helpful include P. H. Vigor’s Soviet Blitzkrieg Theory, which analyses the causes of the German victory and 60 Days that Shook the World, a day-by-day recounting of the campaign. Sunrise at Abadan offers details of the OTL soviet threat to Iran and the later British/Soviet invasion in 1941.