What if the Germans made better use of their navy

Updated Sunday 15 May, 2011 12:18 PM

What if the Germans made better use of their navy?

The German navy does not have a particularly distinguished record in World War Two. After the success of Norway, they were unable to either starve Britain or mount an invasion, which would be suicidal against the British navy. While the Germans did have some technological advantages, they lacked the numbers to mount a major challenge to the British navy.

That left commerce raiding. The Germans used their pocket battleships to do this, but, after several losses, such as the Battle of the River Plate, Hitler wanted the remaining ships used as a ‘fleet-in-being’ and kept them in harbour. Most were then sunk by aircraft or became war booty at the end of the war.

However, there was one other alternative than random sorties and u-boats. In early 1941, the German navy had two battleships, two battlecruisers, two pocket battleships and an odd number of destroyers, all of which were modern, quite fast and stronger than the comparable British ships. The Germans sent out one of the battleships, the Bismarck, which sunk a large British ship (the HMS Hood), caused considerable panic and was finally sunk by a freak accident. I want to put forward the alternative of all the modern ships heading out as a fleet.

Therefore, we have the Bismarck, Tirpitz, Scarnhourst, Geinisurea and associated other ships, about eleven in all, heading out to sea, probably a month later after OTL’s Bismarck voyage. The extra time is that needed to get the Tirpitz ready and move the two battlecruisers into position.

Now, would the British know that the whole fleet was coming? I would guess that they would, as they knew about the Bismarck, but they might not realize how many of the big ships were coming. Even if they did, they would have problems trying to concentrate their own fleet, as its scattered all over the Atlantic. Let’s say that the British send King George V, Prince of Wales, Repulse, Hood and several smaller ships. That’s probably the only number that they could concentrate – it may even be too generous – but the advantage lies with the Germans. Let’s have the two fleets meet, not quite a sure thing in the North Sea, and fight it out. I suspect that the British would still lose Hood, as well as some more battleships (Prince of Wales, Repulse,?) while the Germans would suffer damage and probably lose their cruisers and one of the battlecruisers. That still leaves the Bismarck and Tirpitz, assuming that they were not damaged, and several smaller ships.

The two big German ships start to cruse the Atlantic. They’re bigger than anything British that can catch them, so the British would probably try to reroute convoys around them. That won’t work for long as the Germans have u-boats sending details of the convoys and I suspect that the Germans would be able to use their radar as well. Sooner or later, the German ships will encounter a convoy and massacre it.

That means real trouble. With the Germans very active in the Atlantic, the US would have problems providing support to the British. Depth-charging ‘unidentified’ submarines is very different from firing on a battleship, while the US navy will be desperately trying to find out why the British were defeated and fix the problems in the US ships. Worse, American firms will be more reluctant to send their ships into a war zone, so the total number of British ships will decline.

This means that British will run out very quickly of vital supplies. Food, oil, arms, American goods, all which are needed and the British have serious difficulty in obtaining and transporting. The RN now thinks that they’ll need at least five battleships to escort each convoy, which reduces the number of convoys that can be run, while creating larger targets for the u-boats and the German ships. Hitler, however, orders the ships to avoid contact with heavy British ships, as they are more valuable as a threat.

Hitler also launches an invasion of Iceland. The invasion, which would have been ludicrous if the British navy was not trying to concentrate, succeeds, denting the British ability to hunt u-boats. The British prepare an exhibition to recover Iceland, but their confidence is far more shaken.

Britain’s limited resources swiftly come to an end. Without American support, Britain can no longer fight Germany. When Churchill tries to continue the war, he is disposed by the Parliament and Lord Halifax becomes Prime Minister. Hitler is more than willing to talk and the two sides soon come to an agreement.

Britain returns the German colonies (from WW1) and recognises German conquests in Europe, handing over De Gaulle to the Vichy French when asked, while allowing Italy to occupy Egypt and recover their other colonies. They also recognise Japan’s position in China and Indochina, while allowing them to take the Dutch East Indies. Iceland remains German.

The isolanists in America are blamed by Roosevelt for Britain’s fall. He seeks a mandate to help Britain rebuild her strength, while building up American forces. The American public, however, only wants the American forces built up, so Britain is on her own. Japan soon embarks on a policy of bullying Britain, demanding trade concessions and the right to station inspectors in Hong Kong. The British Empire slowly disintegrates, as India collapses into communal warfare and the white dominions seek American aid.

Germany launches operation Barbarossa in June 1941. The British are sympathetic to the Russians, but they are unable to aid them. Without British aid or even the North African front, the Russians face the full power of Germany and they are finally defeated in 1942.

Author’s Notes: I’m sure people will object to this AH, so I guess I’d better write a good justification. As I noted, the German ships were better and bigger than comparable allied designs, but they are tiny on the scale of the sea. The OTL Hood/Bismarck battle was a lucky break for the Germans, a slight change in the Bismarck's course might have helped them to miss the battle altogether. In ATL, the German fleet needs to be intercepted by a bigger British fleet. The British did have more ships than I’ve implied, but they would have needed to draw down their other imperial commitments, either by coming to terms with Italy and/or Japan, or by abandoning the Far East.

Once they’ve broken out into the Atlantic, the British would need to be very lucky to even find them, let alone sink them. Meanwhile, the Germans would be guided by u-boats to British convoys, most of which won’t have the escorts capable of fighting the German fleet. If the British abandon convoys, which might not be a bad decision here, the U-boats will have a field day.

If Britain’s supply line is cut, peace becomes imperative. Churchill will be forced to resign and his successor would have to make the best terms he could. German aims are unclear, but the ones I’ve detailed above, basically recognition of German continental power, are the minimum.

If Hitler goes east without British support and an African campaign, it will be easier for the Germans to win. Absent lend lease, the Soviets will need to make up thousands of things they did not need to in OTL, reducing their military power. German victory is not certain, but very likely.

Hit Counter